Genomic epidemiology reveals geographical clustering of multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli ST131 associated with bacteraemia in Wales.

Antibiotic resistance is a significant global public health concern. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli sequence type (ST)131, a widely prevalent multidrug-resistant clone, is frequently associated with bacteraemia. This study investigates third-generation cephalosporin resistance in bloodstream infections caused by E. coli ST131. From 2013-2014 blood culture surveillance in Wales, 142 E. coli ST131 genomes were studied alongside global data. All three major ST131 clades were represented across Wales, with clade C/H30 predominant (n = 102/142, 71.8%). Consistent with global findings, Welsh strains of clade C/H30 contain ß-lactamase genes from the blaCTX-M-1 group (n = 65/102, 63.7%), which confer resistance to third-generation cephalosporins. Most Welsh clade C/H30 genomes belonged to sub-clade C2/H30Rx (58.3%). A Wales-specific sub-lineage, named GB-WLS.C2, diverged around 1996-2000. An introduction to North Wales around 2002 led to a localised cluster by 2009, depicting limited genomic diversity within North Wales. This investigation emphasises the value of genomic epidemiology, allowing the detection of genetically similar strains in local areas, enabling targeted and timely public health interventions.

Test performance of lateral flow rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 in Welsh adult care home staff using routine surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Lateral flow tests (LFTs) have been used to screen for SARS-CoV2 in Wales since January 2021. Between May and August 2021, adult care home staff policy was for biweekly Innova LFT and weekly Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing while asymptomatic. We estimated test performance of LFTs conducted in adult care home staff using PCR tests as a reference standard. METHODS: Test results from surveillance data were matched by individual where both LFT and PCR were taken on the same day. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and agreement using Matthew's correlation coefficient. Ct values of positive PCR results were compared by matched LFT result. Analysis was conducted using R v4.1.3. RESULTS: We analysed 115,593 test pairs, 499 (0.43%) of which were PCR positive. Median age was 48 (IQR: 22) and 85.00% of the study population were female. Test result agreement was 99.59% (95%CI 99.55-99.63; MCC: 0.38, p<0.001). Sensitivity and specificity were 25.65% (95%CI 22.02-29.67) and 99.91% (95%CI 99.89-99.93), respectively. PPV was 55.90% (95%CI 49.42-62.17) and NPV was 99.68% (95%CI 99.64-99.71). Crude Ct values were significantly lower in positive PCR tests matched to a positive LFT compared to a negative LFT. CONCLUSIONS: Specificity and negative predictive value were high in an asymptomatic population of care home staff indicating this test is an effective tool for identifying cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection during periods of high prevalence where transmission is likely, due to the presence of high viral loads. Positive predictive value results are lower than existing literature yet should be considered in light of the asymptomatic study population and low prevalence (under 1%) at the time most of these tests were conducted. Performance improved at times of higher prevalence during the study. These results suggest that whilst lateral flow tests are effective for identifying SARS-COV-2 infections with high viral loads, they are not effective at identifying cases with a low viral load. When an LFT provides a negative result, false negatives should be considered and additional diagnostic tests performed.

Legionella antibiotic susceptibility testing: is it time for international standardization and evidence-based guidance?

Legionella pneumophila, a Gram-negative bacillus, is the causative agent of Legionnaire's disease, a form of severe community-acquired pneumonia. Infection can have high morbidity, with a high proportion of patients requiring ICU admission, and up to 10% mortality, which is exacerbated by the lack of efficacy of typical empirical antibiotic therapy against Legionella spp. The fastidious nature of the entire Legionellaceae family historically required inclusion of activated charcoal in the solid medium to remove growth inhibitors, which inherently interferes with accurate antimicrobial susceptibility determination, an acknowledged methodological shortfall, now rectified by a new solid medium that gives results comparable to those of microbroth dilution. Here, as an international Legionella community (with authors representing various international reference laboratories, countries and clinical stakeholders for diagnosis and treatment of legionellosis), we set out recommendations for the standardization of antimicrobial susceptibility testing methods, guidelines and reference strains to facilitate an improved era of antibiotic resistance determination.

Evaluation of susceptibility testing methods for Burkholderia cepacia complex: a comparison of broth microdilution, agar dilution, gradient strip and EUCAST disc diffusion.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of antimicrobial susceptibility testing methods in Burkholderia cepacia complex (BCC). METHODS: Minocycline, ciprofloxacin, trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole, meropenem, ceftazidime and chloramphenicol were tested against 155 BCC strains using broth microdilution at 35 ± 1°C (BMD35) in triplicate, then BMD at 30 ± 1°C (BMD30), agar dilution at 30°C and 35°C (AD30 and AD35), gradient strip (GS) and EUCAST standardized disc diffusion (DD) testing methods once. RESULTS: BMD35 reproducibility ranged from 70% to 84.5% for all agents. Correlations of MICs from BMD35 with BMD30 ranged from 63% to 85%, with AD35 from 32.9% to 87% and with GS methods from 36% to 83.9%. Essential agreement (EA) of MICs by GS with BMD35 ranged from 62.6% (trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole) to 83.9% (minocycline). EA of EUCAST DD zone diameters using CLSI breakpoint criteria was between 85.8% and 97.4%, however Very Major Errors (VME) for trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole were 31%. CONCLUSIONS: BMD at 35 ± 1°C was poorly reproducible for most agents and no method showed acceptable performance. Of particular concern were the GS results. Although this is the most commonly used method for determining MICs in laboratories, there was poor correlation with BMD35 for meropenem and trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole. EUCAST DD correlated poorly with BMD35 MICs. This study confirms that no susceptibility method is capable of providing reproducible and accurate MICs when testing BCC.

Impact of a novel community testing pathway for people with suspected COVID-19 in Wales: a cost-minimisation analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare National Health Service (NHS) organisations' testing pathways for patients with suspected COVID-19 in the community versus standard hospital testing practices. PERSPECTIVE: NHS commissioners and services. METHODS: During the containment phase of the COVID-19 pandemic we developed a community model pathway for COVID-19 testing in Wales with testing teams undertaking swabbing for COVID-19 in individuals' usual place of residence. We undertook a cost-minimisation analysis comparing the costs to the NHS in Wales of community testing for COVID-19 versus standard hospital testing practices and ambulance conveyancing. We analysed data from patients with suspected COVID-19 between January and February 2020 and applied assumptions of costs from national contractual and reference costs for ambulances, staffing and transportation with market costs at the time of publication. RESULTS: 177 patients with suspected COVID-19 underwent community testing via local NHS organisations between January and February 2020 with a mean age of 46.1 (IQR 27.5-56.3). This was 92% of total patients who were tested for COVID-19 during this period. We estimate, compared with standard hospital testing practices, cash savings in improved productivity for the NHS of £24,539 during this time period, in addition to further non-monetised benefits for hospital and ambulance flow. CONCLUSIONS: Community testing for COVID-19 in Wales is now an established pathway and continues to bring benefits for patients, local healthcare organisations and the NHS. Further application of this model in other settings and to other infectious diseases may herald promising returns.

Modifiable healthcare factors affecting 28-day survival in bloodstream infection: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infection is common in the UK and has significant mortality depending on the pathogen involved, site of infection and other patient factors. Healthcare staffing and ward activity may also impact on outcomes in a range of conditions, however there is little specific National Health Service (NHS) data on the impact for patients with bloodstream infection. Bloodstream Infections - Focus on Outcomes is a multicentre cohort study with the primary aim of identifying modifiable risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infection due to one of six key pathogens. METHODS: Adults under the care of five NHS Trusts in England and Wales between November 2010 and May 2012 were included. Multivariable Cox regression was used to quantify the association between modifiable risk factors, including staffing levels and timing of appropriate therapy, and 28-day mortality, after adjusting for non-modifiable risk factors such as patient demographics and long-term comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 1676 patients were included in the analysis population. Overall, 348/1676 (20.8%) died within 28 days. Modifiable factors associated with 28-day mortality were ward speciality, ward activity (admissions and discharges), movement within ward speciality, movement from critical care, and time to receipt of appropriate antimicrobial therapy in the first 7 days. For each additional admission or discharge per 10 beds, the hazard increased by 4% (95% CI 1 to 6%) in medical wards and 11% (95% CI 4 to 19%) in critical care. Patients who had moved wards within speciality or who had moved out of a critical care ward had a reduction in hazard of mortality. In the first 7 days, hazard of death increased with increasing time to receipt of appropriate antimicrobial therapy. CONCLUSION: This study underlines the importance of appropriate antimicrobials within the first 7 days, and the potential for ward activity and ward movements to impact on survival in bloodstream infection.

Impact of a pilot NHS-funded sore throat test and treat service in community pharmacies on provision and quality of patient care.

OBJECTIVE: A National Health Service (NHS)-funded sore throat test and treat (STTT) service was introduced in selected pharmacies in two local health boards in Wales, as an extension to the national pharmacy common ailment scheme. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of STTT on provision and quality of patient care, namely antibiotic use, patient safety and general practitioner (GP) consultation rates. METHODS: Secondary analyses of STTT consultation data to describe service outcomes, and routine data to explore changes in antibiotic prescribing and the prevalence of complications. Data were also collected from one GP practice to explore the feasibility of measuring changes in sore throat consultation rates in general practice. RESULTS: Less than 20% of 1725 consultations resulted in antibiotic supply. The availability of STTT was associated with greater reductions in prescriptions for phenoxymethylpenicillin than in areas where STTT was not available (-3.8% and -3.4%, difference 0.4%). When pharmacy supplies were included, the reductions in the supply of the antibiotic were similar. No increase in the monthly number of incidents of quinsy was detected, and patients were appropriately referred to other healthcare professionals during pharmacy consultations. GP consultation rates since introduction of STTT were found to be lower than the equivalent monthly average since 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the first 5 months of the STTT service suggest that it may have a role in safely rebalancing uncomplicated sore throat management from general practice to community pharmacies while continuing to promote antibiotic stewardship.

Biovitals™: A Personalized Multivariate Physiology Analytics Using Continuous Mobile Biosensors.

More than 50% of the whole world lives with chronic diseases leading to a global economic burden of 47 trillion dollars. Healthcare organizations are moving towards managing patients outside hospital, thereby improving patient safety and quality of life. Current at-home ambulatory remote monitoring analytics based on population level thresholds of individuals physiology have shown poor outcomes and high degree of false alarm burden. The personalized multivariate physiology analytics leverages readily-available low-cost wearable biosensors to detect subtle physiology changes precursor of patient's health deterioration. In this paper we present a novel personalized multivariate physiology analytics for remote patient monitoring in an ambulatory setting. We also present our verification and validation results using perturbation testing along with clinical trial results.

The CF-Sputum Induction Trial (CF-SpIT) to assess lower airway bacterial sampling in young children with cystic fibrosis: a prospective internally controlled interventional trial.

BACKGROUND: Pathogen surveillance is challenging but crucial in children with cystic fibrosis-who are often non-productive of sputum even if actively coughing-because infection and lung disease begin early in life. The role of sputum induction as a diagnostic tool for infection has not previously been systematically addressed in young children with cystic fibrosis. We aimed to assess the pathogen yield from sputum induction compared with that from cough swab and single-lobe, two-lobe, and six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage. METHODS: This prospective internally controlled interventional trial was done at the Children's Hospital for Wales (Cardiff, UK) in children with cystic fibrosis aged between 6 months and 18 years. Samples from cough swab, sputum induction, and single-lobe, two-lobe, and six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage were matched for within-patient comparisons. Primary outcomes were comparative pathogen yield between sputum induction and cough swab for stage 1, and between sputum induction, and single-lobe, two-lobe, and six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage for stage 2. Data were analysed as per protocol. This study is registered with the UK Clinical Research Network (14615) and with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Network Registry (12473810). FINDINGS: Between Jan 23, 2012, and July 4, 2017, 124 patients were prospectively recruited to the trial and had 200 sputum induction procedures for stage 1. 167 (84%) procedures were successful and the procedure was well tolerated. Of the 167 paired samples, 63 (38%) sputum-induction samples were pathogen positive compared with 24 (14%) cough swabs (p<0·0001; odds ratio [OR] 7·5; 95% CI 3·19-17·98). More pathogens were isolated from sputum induction than cough swab (79 [92%] of 86 vs 27 [31%] of 86; p<0·0001). For stage 2, 35 patients had a total of 41 paired sputum-induction and bronchoalveolar lavage procedures. Of the 41 paired samples, 28 (68%) were positive for at least one of the concurrent samples. 39 pathogens were isolated. Sputum induction identified 27 (69%) of the 39 pathogens, compared with 22 (56%; p=0·092; OR 3·3, 95% CI 0·91-12·11) on single-lobe, 28 (72%; p=1·0; OR 1·1, 95% CI 0·41-3·15) on two-lobe, and 33 (85%; p=0·21; OR 2·2, 95% CI 0·76-6·33) on six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage. INTERPRETATION: Sputum induction is superior to cough swab for pathogen detection, is effective at sampling the lower airway, and is a credible surrogate for bronchoalveolar lavage in symptomatic children. A substantial number of bronchoscopies could be avoided if sputum induction is done first and pathogens are appropriately treated. Both sputum induction and six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage provide independent, sizeable gains in pathogen detection compared with the current gold-standard two-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage. We propose that sputum induction and six-lobe bronchoalveolar lavage combined are used as standard of care for comprehensive lower airway pathogen detection in children with cystic fibrosis. FUNDING: Health and Care Research Wales-Academic Health Science Collaboration and Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund.

Prehospital recognition and antibiotics for 999 patients with sepsis: protocol for a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a common condition which kills between 36,000 and 64,000 people every year in the UK. Early recognition and management of sepsis has been shown to reduce mortality and improve the health and well-being of people with sepsis. Paramedics frequently come into contact with patients with sepsis and are well placed to provide early diagnosis and treatment.We aim to determine the feasibility of undertaking a fully powered randomised controlled trial (RCT) to test the clinical and cost-effectiveness of paramedics obtaining blood cultures from and administering IV antibiotics to patients with sepsis, so we can make a decision about whether to proceed to a fully powered randomised controlled trial, which will answer questions regarding safety and effectiveness for patients and benefit to the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS/DESIGN: This is an individually randomised, two-arm feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial with a 1:1 ratio. Sixty paramedics will receive training to assist them to recognise sepsis using a screening tool, obtain blood cultures, and provide IV antibiotics. If sepsis is suspected, paramedics will randomly allocate patients to intervention or usual care using their next sequential individually issued scratch card. Patients will be followed up at 90 days using linked anonymised data to capture length of hospital admission and mortality. We will also collect self-reported health-related quality of life (using SF-12) at this time. We will interview ten patients by telephone and hold a focus group with paramedics, to find out what they think about the intervention. DISCUSSION: At the end of this study, we will make a recommendation about whether a full randomised controlled trial of paramedics obtaining blood cultures and administering IV antibiotics for sepsis is warranted, and if so, we will develop a proposal for research funding in order to take the work forward. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN36856873.

General practitioner use of a C-reactive protein point-of-care test to help target antibiotic prescribing in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (the PACE study): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Most patients presenting with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in primary care are prescribed an antibiotic, which may not always be appropriate and may cause harm. C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase biomarker that can be rapidly measured at the point of care and may predict benefit from antibiotic treatment in AECOPD. It is not clear whether the addition of a CRP point-of-care test (POCT) to clinical assessment leads to a reduction in antibiotic consumption without having a negative impact on COPD health status. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a multicentre, individually randomised controlled trial (RCT) aiming to include 650 participants with a diagnosis of AECOPD in primary care. Participants will be randomised to be managed according to usual care (control) or with the addition of a CRP POCT to guide antibiotic prescribing. Antibiotic consumption for AECOPD within 4 weeks post randomisation and COPD health status (total score) measured by the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) at 2 weeks post randomisation will be co-primary outcomes. Primary analysis (by intention-to-treat) will determine differences in antibiotic consumption for superiority and COPD health status for non-inferiority. Secondary outcomes include: COPD health status, CCQ domain scores, use of other COPD treatments (weeks 1, 2 and 4), EQ-5D utility scores (weeks 1, 2 and 4 and month 6), disease-specific, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months, all-cause antibiotic consumption (antibiotic use for any condition) during first 4 weeks post randomisation, total antibiotic consumption (number of days during first 4 weeks of antibiotic consumed for AECOPD/any reason), antibiotic prescribing at the index consultation and during following 4 weeks, adverse effects over the first 4 weeks, incidence of pneumonia (weeks 4 and 6 months), health care resource use and cost comparison over the 6 months following randomisation. Prevalence and resistance profiles of bacteria will be assessed using throat and sputum samples collected at baseline and 4-week follow-up. A health economic evaluation and qualitative process evaluation will be carried out. DISCUSSION: If shown to be effective (i.e. leads to a reduction in antibiotic use with no worse COPD health status), the use of the CRP POCT could lead to better outcomes for patients with AECOPD and help reduce selective pressures driving the development of antimicrobial resistance. PACE will be one of the first studies to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a POCT biomarker to guide clinical decision-making in primary care on patient-reported outcomes, antibiotic prescribing and antibiotic resistance for AECOPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN24346473 . Registered on 20 August 2014.

Comparison of microbiological diagnosis of urinary tract infection in young children by routine health service laboratories and a research laboratory: Diagnostic cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the validity of diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) through urine culture between samples processed in routine health service laboratories and those processed in a research laboratory. POPULATION AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective diagnostic cohort study in 4808 acutely ill children aged <5 years attending UK primary health care. UTI, defined as pure/predominant growth ≥105 CFU/mL of a uropathogen (the reference standard), was diagnosed at routine health service laboratories and a central research laboratory by culture of urine samples. We calculated areas under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) for UTI predicted by pre-specified symptoms, signs and dipstick test results (the "index test"), separately according to whether samples were obtained by clean catch or nappy (diaper) pads. RESULTS: 251 (5.2%) and 88 (1.8%) children were classified as UTI positive by health service and research laboratories respectively. Agreement between laboratories was moderate (kappa = 0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29, 0.43), and better for clean catch (0.54; 0.45, 0.63) than nappy pad samples (0.20; 0.12, 0.28). In clean catch samples, the AUC was lower for health service laboratories (AUC = 0.75; 95% CI 0.69, 0.80) than the research laboratory (0.86; 0.79, 0.92). Values of AUC were lower in nappy pad samples (0.65 [0.61, 0.70] and 0.79 [0.70, 0.88] for health service and research laboratory positivity, respectively) than clean catch samples. CONCLUSIONS: The agreement of microbiological diagnosis of UTI comparing routine health service laboratories with a research laboratory was moderate for clean catch samples and poor for nappy pad samples and reliability is lower for nappy pad than for clean catch samples. Positive results from the research laboratory appear more likely to reflect real UTIs than those from routine health service laboratories, many of which (particularly from nappy pad samples) could be due to contamination. Health service laboratories should consider adopting procedures used in the research laboratory for paediatric urine samples. Primary care clinicians should try to obtain clean catch samples, even in very young children.

Towards better antimicrobial susceptibility testing: impact of the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.

Susceptibility testing of bacteria is one of the most important tests performed in a clinical microbiology laboratory. Improvements in laboratory techniques, especially the move towards standardized susceptibility testing, has provided better consistency and accuracy of testing. When used in conjunction with the most recently developed interpretative criteria, the result is better prediction of the outcome of antimicrobial therapy for infected patients. Throughout the last four decades this Journal has published numerous articles evidencing improvements and new techniques, a valuable source of information for microbiology laboratories.

Enhanced surveillance of Clostridium difficile infection occurring outside hospital, England, 2011 to 2013.

There are limited national epidemiological data for community-associated (CA)-Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs). Between March 2011 and March 2013, laboratories in England submitted to the Clostridium difficile Ribotyping Network (CDRN) up to 10 diarrhoeal faecal samples from successive patients with CA-CDI, defined here as C. difficile toxin-positive diarrhoea commencing outside hospital (or less than 48 hours after hospital admission), including those cases associated with community-based residential care, with no discharge from hospital within the previous 12 weeks. Patient demographics and C. difficile PCR ribotypes were compared for CA-CDIs in our study and presumed healthcare-associated (HA) CDIs via CDRN. Ribotype diversity indices, ranking and relative prevalences were very similar in CA- vs HA-CDIs, although ribotypes 002 (p ≤ 0.0001),020 (p = 0.009) and 056 (p < 0.0001) predominated in CA-CDIs; ribotype 027 (p = 0.01) predominated in HA-CDIs. Epidemic ribotypes 027 and 078 predominated in institutional residents with CDI (including care/nursing homes) compared with people with CDI living at home. Ribotype diversity decreased with increasing age in HA-CDIs, but not in CA-CDIs. Ribotype 078 CA-CDIs were significantly more common in elderly people (3.4% (6/174) vs 8.7% (45/519) in those aged < 65 and ≥ 65 years, respectively; p = 0.019). No antibiotics were prescribed in the previous four weeks in about twofold more CA-CDI vs HAs (38.6% (129/334) vs 20.3% (1,226/6,028); p < 0.0001). We found very similar ribotype distributions in CA- and HA-CDIs, although a few ribotypes significantly predominated in one setting. These national data emphasise the close interplay between, and likely common reservoirs for, CDIs, particularly when epidemic strains are not dominant.

Nappy pad urine samples for investigation and treatment of UTI in young children: the 'DUTY' prospective diagnostic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The added diagnostic utility of nappy pad urine samples and the proportion that are contaminated is unknown. AIM: To develop a clinical prediction rule for the diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) based on sampling using the nappy pad method. DESIGN AND SETTING: Acutely unwell children <5 years presenting to 233 UK primary care sites. METHOD: Logistic regression to identify independent associations of symptoms, signs, and urine dipstick test results with UTI; diagnostic utility quantified as area under the receiver operator curves (AUROC). Nappy pad rule characteristics, AUROC, and contamination, compared with findings from clean-catch samples. RESULTS: Nappy pad samples were obtained from 3205 children (82% aged <2 years; 48% female), culture results were available for 2277 (71.0%) and 30 (1.3%) had a UTI on culture. Female sex, smelly urine, darker urine, and the absence of nappy rash were independently associated with a UTI, with an internally-validated, coefficient model AUROC of 0.81 (0.87 for clean-catch), which increased to 0.87 (0.90 for clean-catch) with the addition of dipstick results. GPs' 'working diagnosis' had an AUROC 0.63 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.53 to 0.72). A total of 12.2% of nappy pad and 1.8% of clean-catch samples were 'frankly contaminated' (risk ratio 6.66; 95% CI = 4.95 to 8.96; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Nappy pad urine culture results, with features that can be reported by parents and dipstick tests, can be clinically useful, but are less accurate and more often contaminated compared with clean-catch urine culture.

The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract infection in Young children (DUTY): a diagnostic prospective observational study to derive and validate a clinical algorithm for the diagnosis of urinary tract infection in children presenting to primary care with an acute illness.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear which young children presenting acutely unwell to primary care should be investigated for urinary tract infection (UTI) and whether or not dipstick testing should be used to inform antibiotic treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop algorithms to accurately identify pre-school children in whom urine should be obtained; assess whether or not dipstick urinalysis provides additional diagnostic information; and model algorithm cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: Multicentre, prospective diagnostic cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Children < 5 years old presenting to primary care with an acute illness and/or new urinary symptoms. METHODS: One hundred and seven clinical characteristics (index tests) were recorded from the child's past medical history, symptoms, physical examination signs and urine dipstick test. Prior to dipstick results clinician opinion of UTI likelihood ('clinical diagnosis') and urine sampling and treatment intentions ('clinical judgement') were recorded. All index tests were measured blind to the reference standard, defined as a pure or predominant uropathogen cultured at ≥ 10(5) colony-forming units (CFU)/ml in a single research laboratory. Urine was collected by clean catch (preferred) or nappy pad. Index tests were sequentially evaluated in two groups, stratified by urine collection method: parent-reported symptoms with clinician-reported signs, and urine dipstick results. Diagnostic accuracy was quantified using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and bootstrap-validated AUROC, and compared with the 'clinician diagnosis' AUROC. Decision-analytic models were used to identify optimal urine sampling strategy compared with 'clinical judgement'. RESULTS: A total of 7163 children were recruited, of whom 50% were female and 49% were < 2 years old. Culture results were available for 5017 (70%); 2740 children provided clean-catch samples, 94% of whom were ≥ 2 years old, with 2.2% meeting the UTI definition. Among these, 'clinical diagnosis' correctly identified 46.6% of positive cultures, with 94.7% specificity and an AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.83). Four symptoms, three signs and three dipstick results were independently associated with UTI with an AUROC (95% CI; bootstrap-validated AUROC) of 0.89 (0.85 to 0.95; validated 0.88) for symptoms and signs, increasing to 0.93 (0.90 to 0.97; validated 0.90) with dipstick results. Nappy pad samples were provided from the other 2277 children, of whom 82% were < 2 years old and 1.3% met the UTI definition. 'Clinical diagnosis' correctly identified 13.3% positive cultures, with 98.5% specificity and an AUROC of 0.63 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.72). Four symptoms and two dipstick results were independently associated with UTI, with an AUROC of 0.81 (0.72 to 0.90; validated 0.78) for symptoms, increasing to 0.87 (0.80 to 0.94; validated 0.82) with the dipstick findings. A high specificity threshold for the clean-catch model was more accurate and less costly than, and as effective as, clinical judgement. The additional diagnostic utility of dipstick testing was offset by its costs. The cost-effectiveness of the nappy pad model was not clear-cut. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should prioritise the use of clean-catch sampling as symptoms and signs can cost-effectively improve the identification of UTI in young children where clean catch is possible. Dipstick testing can improve targeting of antibiotic treatment, but at a higher cost than waiting for a laboratory result. Future research is needed to distinguish pathogens from contaminants, assess the impact of the clean-catch algorithm on patient outcomes, and the cost-effectiveness of presumptive versus dipstick versus laboratory-guided antibiotic treatment. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Improving the Diagnosis and Treatment of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children in Primary Care: Results from the DUTY Prospective Diagnostic Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Up to 50% of urinary tract infections (UTIs) in young children are missed in primary care. Urine culture is essential for diagnosis, but urine collection is often difficult. Our aim was to derive and internally validate a 2-step clinical rule using (1) symptoms and signs to select children for urine collection; and (2) symptoms, signs, and dipstick testing to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS: We recruited acutely unwell children aged under 5 years from 233 primary care sites across England and Wales. Index tests were parent-reported symptoms, clinician-reported signs, urine dipstick results, and clinician opinion of UTI likelihood (clinical diagnosis before dipstick and culture). The reference standard was microbiologically confirmed UTI cultured from a clean-catch urine sample. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of coefficient-based (graded severity) and points-based (dichotomized) symptom/sign logistic regression models, and we then internally validated the AUROC using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Three thousand thirty-six children provided urine samples, and culture results were available for 2,740 (90%). Of these results, 60 (2.2%) were positive: the clinical diagnosis was 46.6% sensitive, with an AUROC of 0.77. Previous UTI, increasing pain/crying on passing urine, increasingly smelly urine, absence of severe cough, increasing clinician impression of severe illness, abdominal tenderness on examination, and normal findings on ear examination were associated with UTI. The validated coefficient- and points-based model AUROCs were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, increasing to 0.90 and 0.90, respectively, by adding dipstick nitrites, leukocytes, and blood. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical rule based on symptoms and signs is superior to clinician diagnosis and performs well for identifying young children for noninvasive urine sampling. Dipstick results add further diagnostic value for empiric antibiotic treatment.