The impact of increased dispersal in response to disease control in patchy environments.

This paper uses a mathematical framework to investigate the impact of increased movement in response to disturbance caused by disease control strategies. Implementation of invasive disease control strategies such as culling may cause species to disperse beyond their natural range, thus aiding the spread of infection to otherwise infection free areas. Both linear and non-linear dispersal functions are compared with constant per capita dispersal in a coupled two patch SI model. For highly virulent or infrequently transmitted pathogens, it is found that an increase of dispersal due to control requires a higher level of disease control than in the constant dispersal model. Patches which may be sources or reservoirs of infection are investigated and it is found that if dispersal increases in response to control, then all patches, reservoir or not, must be targeted. The single host two patch model is then extended to a two host wildlife/livestock system with one species 'wildlife' free to move between patches and the other 'livestock' confined. In the two host case, control of one species alone will only achieve successful pathogen exclusion if that species is a reservoir for infection.

Stocking methods and parasite-induced reductions in capture: modelling Argulus foliaceus in trout fisheries.

Argulus foliaceus is a macroparasite which can have a significant impact on yield in recreational trout fisheries, partly by increasing fish mortalities but also by reducing the appetite of infected fish, making them less likely to respond to bait. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of four commonly used fish stocking methods both on the parasite dynamics, and on fisheries' yields. The wider consequences of the resultant reduction in host feeding are also of interest. To this end four different stocking methods were incorporated into Anderson and May's macroparasite model, which comprises three differential equations representing the host, attached parasite and free-living parasite populations. To each of these a reduction in the fish capture rate, inversely linked to the mean parasite burden, is added and the effects interpreted. Results show that (1) the common practise of increasing the stocking rate as catches drop may be counterproductive; (2) in the absence of any wild population of reservoir hosts, the parasite will be unable to survive if the stocking rate does not exceed the rate of capture; (3) compensatory stocking to account for fish mortalities can have disastrous consequences on yield; and (4) the parasite can, under certain circumstances, maintain the host population by preventing their capture.

Pathogen exclusion from eco-epidemiological systems.

Increasing concerns about the changing environment and the emergence of pathogens that cross species boundaries have added to the urgency of understanding the dynamics of complex ecological systems infected by pathogens. Of particular interest is the often counterintuitive way in which infection and predation interact and the consequent difficulties in designing control strategies to manage the system. To understand the mechanisms involved, we focus on the pathogen exclusion problem, using control maps (on which the network of exclusion thresholds are plotted) in order to readily identify which exclusion strategies will work and why others will not. We apply this approach to the analysis of parasite exclusion in two game bird ecologies. For higher dimensions, we propose a computational scheme that will generate the optimal exclusion strategy, taking into account all operational constraints on the pathogen invasion matrix, populations, and controls. The situation is further complicated when external forcing distorts pathogen thresholds. This distortion is highly sensitive to the lags between forcing components, a sensitivity that can be exploited by management using correctly lagged cyclically varying controls to reduce the effort involved in pathogen exclusion.

Exclusion of generalist pathogens in multihost communities.

Knowing how to control a pathogen that infects more than one host species is of increasing importance because the incidence of such infections grows with continuing environmental change. Of concern are infections transmitted from wildlife to humans or livestock. To determine which options are available to control a pathogen in these circumstances, we analyze the pathogen invasion matrix for the multihost susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We highlight the importance of both community structure and the column sum or row sum index, an indicator of both force of infection and community stability. We derive a set of guidelines for constructing culling strategies and suggest a hybrid strategy that has the advantages of both the bottom-up and the top-down approaches, which we study in some detail. The analysis holds for an arbitrary number of host species, enabling the analysis of large-scale ecological systems and systems with spatial dimensions. We test the robustness of our methods by making two changes in the structure of the underlying dynamic model, adding direct competition and introducing frequency-dependent infection transmission. In particular, we show that the introduction of an additional host can eliminate the pathogen rather than eliminate the resident host. The discussion is illustrated with a reference to bovine tuberculosis.