Raising cigarette excise tax to reduce consumption in low-and middle-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region:a simulation of the anticipated health and taxation revenues impacts.

BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 80% of the world's smokers live in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, more than half of the world's smoking-addicted population resides in the Asia-Pacific region. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies in the region. This study investigates the effects of price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 22 low-income as well as middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2015 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for countries with a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) above US$6000 (China and Malaysia), and considerably higher for other economies in the region. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 9.51%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.56%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 16.20%. The number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would be the highest in China, followed by Indonesia and India. In total, over 17.96 million lives could be saved by tax increases. CONCLUSION: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths. Middle- and upper-middle income countries would be most affected by high-taxation policies.

The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling.

BACKGROUND: European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. METHODS: Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Factors affecting Taiwanese smokers' identification of smuggled cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze whether the perception that smuggled cigarettes are a greater health risk than legal cigarettes affects Taiwanese smokers' intention to distinguish smuggled cigarettes from legal cigarettes. METHODS: The study used the Recursive Bivariate Probit Model to analyze data from a survey conducted in 2013 of 450 smokers of smuggled cigarettes. RESULTS: The study found that when smokers believe they are more likely to get lung cancer from consuming smuggled cigarettes than they are from consuming legal cigarettes, the probability of the intention to identify smuggled cigarettes increased by 42.46%. CONCLUSIONS: The government should strengthen educational policies and programs that teach consumers about the health risks of smoking in general and the even greater health risks of smoking smuggled cigarettes in particular.

Effect of alkyl properties and head groups of cationic surfactants on retention of cesium by organoclays.

Cationic surfactants modified clays exhibit high sorptive capability toward anionic radionuclides but retention of cationic radionuclides was concurrently reduced. In this study, organoclays were synthesized by intercalating a variety of primary/quaternary alkylammonium species (NH(2)R/(CH(3))(3)N(+)RBr(-), where R = benzyl, dodecyl, and octadecyl) into bentonite MX-80. The effect of surfactant's properties on enhancing or limiting cationic sorption capability was investigated by performing Cs sorption experiments. Experimental results were analyzed using the MINEQL+ software by considering Cs uptake by structural and edge sorption sites. Bentonites that were intercalated with primary alkylammonium surfactants had a higher sorptive capacity than those intercalated with quaternary alkylammonium surfactants. Samples intercalated with octadecyl-bearing surfactants had the lowest sorption rate. XRD and FTIR analyses revealed that each organoclay had a characteristic arrangement of alkyl chains. The cation retention of organoclays was dominated by the extent of hydrophobic interactions affected by the local distribution and arrangement of surfactants. The intercalated primary alkylammoniun surfactants tended to transform into local clusters with a high packing density, leaving more structural sites available for Cs uptake. In contrast, the NH(3)R(+)-surfactants tended to form a denser monolayer over clay surface, inhibiting the retention of Cs at structural sites.

Does perceived safety of light cigarette encourage smokers to smoke more or to inhale more deeply?

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the effect of smoking light cigarettes and believing that light cigarettes are less of a health threat on the decision to smoke more light cigarettes or inhale more deeply in Taiwan. METHODS: Demographic and smoking characteristic data for 1,182 smokers who believe that smoking light cigarettes is relatively safe was obtained from the 2002 Survey of the Health Promotion Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behavior of Taiwan Citizens; this data was used to establish Logit models for the decision to smoke more light cigarettes or inhale more deeply. RESULTS: Respectively 5.64% and 4.76% of the light cigarette smokers were motivated to smoke more light cigarettes or inhale more deeply by their belief that light cigarettes are relatively safe. Light cigarette smokers, who believe that light cigarettes are relatively safe and who wish to quit smoking, and light smokers, are both likely to smoke more light cigarettes or inhale light cigarettes more deeply in comparison to ordinary cigarette smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Government should attempt to reverse the tendency for light smokers to smoke more under the misconception that light cigarettes are relatively safe, and correct the erroneous belief among smokers who wish to quit that smoking light cigarettes is an intermediate stage on the path to quitting.