Assessing Excess Mortality of Baby Boomers from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Taiwan Omicron-naïve Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Asia's elderly Baby Boomer demographic (born between 1946 and 1964) faced a huge problem during the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased all-cause mortality. We aimed to provide a unique Taiwan situation regarding the impact of Baby Boomers on excess mortalities from all causes relative to non-Baby Boomers throughout distinct times of SARS-CoV-2 mutations during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used the Poisson time series design with a Bayesian directed acyclic graphic approach to build the background mortality prior to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2015 and 2019. It was then used for predicting the expected all-cause deaths compared to the reported figures during the COVID-19 pandemic period based on Taiwan residents, an Omicron-naïve cohort. RESULTS: Baby Boomers experienced a 2% negative excess mortality in 2020 (Wuhan/D614G) and a 4% excess mortality in 2021 (Alpha/Delta) with a rising background mortality trend whereas non-Baby Boomers showed the corresponding figures of 4% negative excess and 1% excess with a stable trend. Baby Boomer and non-Baby Boomer excess mortality soared to 9% (95% CI: 7-10%) and 10% (95% CI: 9-11%), respectively, during the epidemic Omicron period from January to June 2022. Surprisingly, Baby Boomers aged 58-76 experienced the same 9% excess mortality as non-Baby Boomers aged 77 and beyond. Non-COVID-19 deaths were more prevalent among Baby Boomers than non-Baby Boomers (33% vs. 29%). CONCLUSION: Baby Boomers were more likely to die from COVID-19 in early pandemic and had more non-COVID-19 deaths in late pandemic than older non-Baby Boomers demonstrated in Taiwan Omicron-naïve cohort. For this vulnerable population, adequate access to medical care and medical capacity require more consideration.

Precision Colorectal Cancer Fecal Immunological Test Screening With Fecal-Hemoglobin-Concentration-Guided Interscreening Intervals.

Importance: Given a gradient relationship between fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration and colorectal neoplasia demonstrated previously, using f-Hb-guided interscreening interval has increasingly gained attention in population-based fecal immunological test (FIT), but it is very rare to address how to implement such a precision strategy and whether it can economize the use of FIT and colonoscopy. Objective: To demonstrate the applicability of personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with f-Hb-guided screening intervals to reduce the number of FITs and colonoscopy with as equivalent efficacy as universal biennial screening. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study for developing f-Hb-guided precision interscreening interval was conducted using data on a Taiwanese biennial nationwide FIT screening program that enrolled more than 3 million participants aged 50 to 74 years between 2004 and 2014. The cohort was followed up over time until 2019 to ascertain colorectal neoplasia and causes of death. A comparative study was further designed to compare the use of FIT and colonoscopy between the personalized f-Hb-guided group and the universal biennial screening group given the equivalent efficacy of reducing CRC-related outcomes. Main Outcomes and Measurements: A spectrum of f-Hb-guided intervals was determined by using the Poisson regression model given the equivalent efficacy of a universal biennial screening. The use of FIT and colonoscopy for the pragmatic f-Hb-guided interval group was measured compared with the universal biennial screening group. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to October 2023. Results: Using data from the 3 500 250 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.8 [6.0] years) enrolled in the Taiwanese biennial nationwide FIT screening program, an incremental increase in baseline f-Hb associated with colorectal neoplasia and CRC mortality consistently was observed. Participants with different f-Hb levels were classified into distinct risk categories. Various screening intervals by different f-Hb levels were recommended. Using the proposed f-Hb-guided screening intervals, it was found that the personalized method was imputed to reduce the number of FIT tests and colonoscopies by 49% and 28%, respectively, compared with the universal biennial screening. Conclusion and Relevance: The gradient relationship between f-Hb and colorectal neoplasia and CRC mortality was used to develop personalized FIT screening with f-Hb-guided screening intervals. Such a precision interscreening interval led to the reduced use of FIT test and colonoscopy without compromising the effectiveness of universal biennial screening.

New insights into three trajectories of omicron-related all-cause death reduced by COVID-19 booster vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The trajectories of all-cause deaths linked to omicron infections are rarely studied, especially in relation to the efficacy of booster shots. For assessing three epidemiological death trajectories, including dying from COVID-19, dying with COVID-19, and non-COVID-19 death, we offer a new COVID-19-and-death competing risk model that deals with the primary pathway (e.g., dying from COVID-19) competing with two other pathways. METHODS: We applied this model to track three trajectories: deaths directly from COVID-19, deaths with COVID-19 as a contributing factor, and indirect non-COVID-19 deaths. The study used data from a Taiwanese cohort, covering periods of Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.5, and BA.2.75. It focused on the effectiveness of monovalent and bivalent booster vaccines against these death trajectories. RESULTS: The highest mortality was observed during the BA.2 phase, which decreased in the BA.5 period and increased again in the BA.2.75 period. Analyzing each trajectory, we noted similar trends in deaths directly from and with COVID-19, while non-COVID-19 deaths remained stable across subvariants. Booster vaccines reduced all-cause mortality by 58% (52%-62%) for BA.2, 70% (65%-75%) for BA.5%, and 75% (70%-80%) for BA.2.75, compared to incomplete vaccination. The reduction in deaths directly from COVID-19 was 66% (61%-72%) for BA.2, 78% (72%-84%) for BA.5%, and 85% (76%-93%) for BA.2.75. For deaths with COVID-19, the figures were 46% (36%-55%), 76% (68%-84%), and 90% (86%-95%). Additionally, the booster shots decreased non-COVID-19 deaths by 64% (63%-66%) for BA.2, 38% (36%-40%) for BA.5, and 19% (17%-21%) for BA.2.75. CONCLUSION: Our competing risk analysis is effective for monitoring all-cause death trajectories amidst various Omicron infections. It provides insights into the impact of booster vaccines, especially bivalent ones, and highlights the consequences of inadequate healthcare for vulnerable groups.

Advancing screening tool for hospice needs and end-of-life decision-making process in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Predicting mortality in the emergency department (ED) is imperative to guide palliative care and end-of-life decisions. However, the clinical usefulness of utilizing the existing screening tools still leaves something to be desired. METHODS: We advanced the screening tool with the A-qCPR (Age, qSOFA (quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment), cancer, Performance Status Scale, and DNR (Do-Not-Resuscitate) risk score model for predicting one-year mortality in the emergency department of Taipei City Hospital of Taiwan with the potential of hospice need and evaluated its performance compared with the existing screening model. We adopted a large retrospective cohort in conjunction with in-time (the trained and the holdout validation cohort) for the development of the A-qCPR model and out-of-time validation sample for external validation and model robustness to variation with the calendar year. RESULTS: A total of 10,474 patients were enrolled in the training cohort and 33,182 patients for external validation. Significant risk scores included age (0.05 per year), qSOFA ≥ 2 (4), Cancer (5), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status score ≥ 2 (2), and DNR status (2). One-year mortality rates were 13.6% for low (score ≦ 3 points), 29.9% for medium (3 < Score ≦ 9 points), and 47.1% for high categories (Score > 9 points). The AUROC curve for the in-time validation sample was 0.76 (0.74-0.78). However, the corresponding figure was slightly shrunk to 0.69 (0.69-0.70) based on out-of-time validation. The accuracy with our newly developed A-qCPR model was better than those existing tools including 0.57 (0.56-0.57) by using SQ (surprise question), 0.54 (0.54-0.54) by using qSOFA, and 0.59 (0.59-0.59) by using ECOG performance status score. Applying the A-qCPR model to emergency departments since 2017 has led to a year-on-year increase in the proportion of patients or their families signing DNR documents, which had not been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The A-qCPR model is not only effective in predicting one-year mortality but also in identifying hospice needs. Advancing the screening tool that has been widely used for hospice in various scenarios is particularly helpful for facilitating the end-of-life decision-making process in the ED.

Beneficial effect of repeated participation in breast cancer screening upon survival.

OBJECTIVES: The benefit of mammography screening in reducing population mortality from breast cancer is well established. In this paper, we estimate the effect of repeated participation at scheduled screens on case survival. METHODS: We analysed incidence and survival data on 37,079 women from nine Swedish counties who had at least one to five invitation(s) to screening prior to diagnosis, and were diagnosed with breast cancer between 1992 and 2016. Of these, 4564 subsequently died of breast cancer. We estimated the association of survival with participation in up to the most recent five screens before diagnosis. We used proportional hazards regression to estimate the effect on survival of the number of scheduled screens in which subjects participated prior to the diagnosis of breast cancer. RESULTS: There was successively better survival with an increasing number of screens in which the subject participated. For a woman with five previous screening invitations who participated in all five, the hazard ratio was 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.33, p < 0.0001) compared to a woman attending none (86.9% vs 68.9% 20-year survival). Following a conservative adjustment for potential self-selection factors, the hazard ratio was 0.34 (95% CI 0.26-0.43, p < 0.0001), an approximate three-fold reduction in the hazard of dying from breast cancer. CONCLUSION: For those women who develop breast cancer, regular prior participation in mammography screening confers significantly better survival.

Community-Based Digital Contact Tracing of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Design and Implementation Study With Empirical COVID-19 Cases.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing for containing emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is resource intensive and requires digital transformation to enable timely decision-making. OBJECTIVE: This study demonstrates the design and implementation of digital contact tracing using multimodal health informatics to efficiently collect personal information and contain community outbreaks. The implementation of digital contact tracing was further illustrated by 3 empirical SARS-CoV-2 infection clusters. METHODS: The implementation in Changhua, Taiwan, served as a demonstration of the multisectoral informatics and connectivity between electronic health systems needed for digital contact tracing. The framework incorporates traditional travel, occupation, contact, and cluster approaches and a dynamic contact process enabled by digital technology. A centralized registry system, accessible only to authorized health personnel, ensures privacy and data security. The efficiency of the digital contact tracing system was evaluated through a field study in Changhua. RESULTS: The digital contact tracing system integrates the immigration registry, communicable disease report system, and national health records to provide real-time information about travel, occupation, contact, and clusters for potential contacts and to facilitate a timely assessment of the risk of COVID-19 transmission. The digitalized system allows for informed decision-making regarding quarantine, isolation, and treatment, with a focus on personal privacy. In the first cluster infection, the system monitored 665 contacts and isolated 4 (0.6%) cases; none of the contacts (0/665, 0%) were infected during quarantine. The estimated reproduction number of 0.92 suggests an effective containment strategy for preventing community-acquired outbreak. The system was also used in a cluster investigation involving foreign workers, where none of the 462 contacts (0/462, 0%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating the multisectoral database, the contact tracing process can be digitalized to provide the information required for risk assessment and decision-making in a timely manner to contain a community-acquired outbreak when facing the outbreak of emerging infectious disease.

Imaging biomarkers are underutilised but highly predictive prognostic factors for the more fatal breast cancer subtypes.

PURPOSE: The development and refinement of breast imaging modalities offer a wealth of diagnostic information such as imaging biomarkers, which are primarily the mammographic appearance of the various breast cancer subtypes. These are readily available preoperatively at the time of diagnosis and can enhance the prognostic value of currently used molecular biomarkers. In this study, we investigated the relative utility of the molecular and imaging biomarkers, both jointly and independently, when predicting long-term patient outcome according to the site of tumour origin. METHODS: We evaluated the association of imaging biomarkers and conventional molecular biomarkers, (ER, PR, HER-2, Ki67), separately and combined, with long-term patient outcome in all breast cancer cases having complete data on both imaging and molecular biomarkers (n = 2236) diagnosed in our Institute during the period 2008-2019. Large format histopathology technique was used to document intra- and intertumoural heterogeneity and select the appropriate foci for evaluating molecular biomarkers. RESULTS: The breast cancer imaging biomarkers were strongly predictive of long-term patient outcome. The molecular biomarkers were predictive of outcome only for unifocal acinar adenocarcinoma of the breast (AAB), but less reliable in the multifocal AAB cases due to variability of molecular biomarkers in the individual tumour foci. In breast cancer of mesenchymal origin (BCMO), conventionally termed classic invasive lobular carcinoma, and in cancers originating from the major lactiferous ducts (ductal adenocarcinoma of the breast, DAB), the molecular biomarkers misleadingly indicated favourable prognosis, whereas the imaging biomarkers in BCMO and DAB reliably indicated the high risk of breast cancer death. Among the 2236 breast cancer cases, BCMO and DAB comprised 21% of the breast cancer cases, but accounted for 45% of the breast cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of imaging biomarkers into the diagnostic workup of breast cancer yields a more precise, comprehensive and prognostically accurate diagnostic report. This is particularly necessary in multifocal AAB cases having intertumoural heterogeneity, in diffuse carcinomas (DAB and BCMO), and in cases with combined DAB and AAB. In such cases, the imaging biomarkers should be prioritised over molecular biomarkers in planning treatment because the latter fail to predict the severity of the disease. In combination with the use of the large section histopathology technique, imaging biomarkers help alleviate some of the current problems in breast cancer management, such as over- and under-assessment of disease extent, which carry the risk of overtreatment and undertreatment.

Can ship travel contain COVID-19 outbreak after re-opening: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

Large gatherings of people on cruise ships and warships are often at high risk of COVID-19 infections. To assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 on warships and cruise ships and to quantify the effectiveness of the containment measures, the transmission coefficient (ß), basic reproductive number (R0), and time to deploy containment measures were estimated by the Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. A meta-analysis was conducted to predict vaccine protection with or without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The analysis showed that implementing NPIs during voyages could reduce the transmission coefficients of SARS-CoV-2 by 50%. Two weeks into the voyage of a cruise that begins with 1 infected passenger out of a total of 3,711 passengers, we estimate there would be 45 (95% CI:25-71), 33 (95% CI:20-52), 18 (95% CI:11-26), 9 (95% CI:6-12), 4 (95% CI:3-5), and 2 (95% CI:2-2) final cases under 0%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90% vaccine protection, respectively, without NPIs. The timeliness of strict NPIs along with implementing strict quarantine and isolation measures is imperative to contain COVID-19 cases in cruise ships. The spread of COVID-19 on ships was predicted to be limited in scenarios corresponding to at least 70% protection from prior vaccination, across all passengers and crew.

Double-contrast barium enema is no longer justified as a backup examination for colonoscopy in the population screening program: Population study in an organized fecal immunochemical test-based screening program.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Currently, some countries still acknowledge double-contrast barium enema (DCBE) as a backup confirmatory examination when colonoscopy is not feasible or incomplete in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. This study aims to compare the performance of colonoscopy and DCBE in terms of the risk of incident CRC after negative results in the fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based Taiwan Colorectal Cancer Screening Program. METHODS: Subjects who had positive FITs and received confirmatory exams, either colonoscopy or DCBE, without the findings of neoplastic lesions from 2004 to 2013 in the screening program comprised the study cohort. Both the colonoscopy and DCBE subcohorts were followed until the end of 2018 and linked to the Taiwan Cancer Registry to identify incident CRC cases. Multivariate analysis was conducted to compare the risk of incident CRC in both subcohorts after controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 102 761 colonoscopies and 5885 DCBEs were performed after positive FITs without neoplastic findings during the study period. By the end of 2018, 2113 CRCs (2.7 per 1000 person-years) and 368 CRCs (7.6 per 1000 person-years) occurred in the colonoscopy and DCBE subcohorts, respectively. After adjusting for major confounders, DCBE had a significantly higher risk of incident CRC than colonoscopy, with an adjusted HR of 2.81 (95% CI = 2.51-3.14). CONCLUSIONS: In the FIT screening program, using DCBE as a backup examination was associated with a nearly threefold risk of incident CRC compared with colonoscopy, demonstrating that it is no longer justified as a backup examination for incomplete colonoscopy.

Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model.

A "Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)" monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R0/Re) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R0/Re was 1.16 (1.15-1.17), 1.20 (1.20-1.20), 1.34 (1.34-1.35), 1.33 (1.33-1.33) and 2.52 (2.41-2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R0/Re were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.

Primary and booster vaccination in reducing severe clinical outcomes associated with Omicron Naïve infection.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in reducing severity and deaths associated with Omicron VOC not perturbed by prior infection and independent of oral anti-viral therapy and non-pharmaceutical (NPI). METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was applied to Taiwan community during the unprecedent large-scale outbreaks of Omicron BA.2 between April and August, 2022. Primary vaccination since March, 2021 and booster vaccination since January, 2022 were offered on population level. Oral Anti-viral therapy was also offered as of mid-May 2022. The population-based effectiveness of vaccination in reducing the risk of moderate and severe cases of and death from Omicron BA.2 with the consideration of NPI and oral anti-viral therapy were assessed by using Bayesian hierarchical models. RESULTS: The risks of three clinical outcomes associated with Omicron VOC infection were lowest for booster vaccination, followed by primary vaccination, and highest for incomplete vaccination with the consistent trends of being at increased risk for three outcomes from the young people aged 12 years or below until the elderly people aged 75 years or older with 7 age groups. Before the period using oral anti-viral therapy, complete primary vaccination with the duration more than 9 months before outbreaks conferred the statistically significant 47 % (23-64 %) reduction of death, 48 % (30-61 %) of severe disease, and 46 % (95 % CI: 37-54 %) of moderate disease after adjusting for 10-20 % independent effect of NPI. The benefits of booster vaccination within three months were further enhanced to 76 % (95 % CI: 67-86 %), 74 % (95 % CI: 67-80 %), and 61 % (95 % CI: 56-65 %) for three corresponding outcomes. The additional effectiveness of oral anti-viral therapy in reducing moderate disease was 13 % for the booster group and 5.8 % for primary vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: We corroborated population effectiveness of primary vaccination and its booster vaccination, independent of oral anti-viral therapy and NPI, in reducing severe clinical outcomes associated with Omicron BA.2 naïve infection population.

A new approach to modeling pre-symptomatic incidence and transmission time of imported COVID-19 cases evolving with SARS-CoV-2 variants.

There is paucity of the statistical model that is specified for data on imported COVID-19 cases with the unique global information on infectious properties of SARS-CoV-2 variant different from local outbreak data used for estimating transmission and infectiousness parameters via the established epidemic models. To this end, a new approach with a four-state stochastic model was proposed to formulate these well-established infectious parameters with three new parameters, including the pre-symptomatic incidence rate, the median of pre-symptomatic transmission time (MPTT) to symptomatic state, and the incidence (proportion) of asymptomatic cases using imported COVID-19 data. We fitted the proposed stochastic model to empirical data on imported COVID-19 cases from D614G to Omicron with the corresponding calendar periods according to the classification GISAID information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variant between March 2020 and Jan 2022 in Taiwan. The pre-symptomatic incidence rate was the highest for Omicron followed by Alpha, Delta, and D614G. The MPTT (in days) increased from 3.45 (first period) ~ 4.02 (second period) of D614G until 3.94-4.65 of VOC Alpha but dropped to 3.93-3.49 of Delta and 2 days (only first period) of Omicron. The proportion of asymptomatic cases increased from 29% of D-614G period to 59.2% of Omicron. Modeling data on imported cases across strains of SARS-CoV-2 not only bridges the link between the underlying natural infectious properties elucidated in the previous epidemic models and different disease phenotypes of COVID-19 but also provides precision quarantine and isolation policy for border control in the face of various emerging SRAS-CoV-2 variants globally.

The Preventive Role of mRNA Vaccines in Reducing Death among Moderate Omicron-Infected Patients: A Follow-Up Study.

Very few studies have been conducted to assess the potential preventive role of vaccines, particularly mRNA vaccines, in the improvement of survival among moderate and severe hospitalized patients with COVID-19. After community-acquired outbreaks of the Omicron variant from 18 March until 31 May 2022, occurred in Taiwan, this retrospective cohort of 4090 moderate and 1378 severe patients admitted to hospital was classified according to whether they were administered an mRNA-based vaccine, and followed up to ascertain rates of death in both the vaccinated (≥2 doses) and unvaccinated (no or 1 dose) groups. The age-adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of less than 1 was used to assess the preventive role of mRNA vaccines in reducing deaths among moderate and severe Omicron-infected patients. Survival was statistically significantly better for the ≥2 dose jab group (aHR, 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.94) and even higher among those who had received a booster jab (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.91) compared with the unvaccinated group among moderate patients, but not among severe patients. In conclusion, unveiling the role of mRNA vaccines in preventing moderate but not severe COVID-19 patients from death provides new insights into how mRNA vaccines play a role in the pathway leading to a severe outcome due to Omicron COVID-19.

New Surveillance Metrics for Alerting Community-Acquired Outbreaks of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Imported Case Data: Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach.

BACKGROUND: Global transmission from imported cases to domestic cluster infections is often the origin of local community-acquired outbreaks when facing emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop new surveillance metrics for alerting emerging community-acquired outbreaks arising from new strains by monitoring the risk of small domestic cluster infections originating from few imported cases of emerging variants. METHODS: We used Taiwanese COVID-19 weekly data on imported cases, domestic cluster infections, and community-acquired outbreaks. The study period included the D614G strain in February 2020, the Alpha and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) in 2021, and the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 VOCs in April 2022. The number of cases arising from domestic cluster infection caused by imported cases (Dci/Imc) per week was used as the SARS-CoV-2 strain-dependent surveillance metric for alerting local community-acquired outbreaks. Its upper 95% credible interval was used as the alert threshold for guiding the rapid preparedness of containment measures, including nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), testing, and vaccination. The 2 metrics were estimated by using the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain method underpinning the directed acyclic graphic diagram constructed by the extra-Poisson (random-effect) regression model. The proposed model was also used to assess the most likely week lag of imported cases prior to the current week of domestic cluster infections. RESULTS: A 1-week lag of imported cases prior to the current week of domestic cluster infections was considered optimal. Both metrics of Dci/Imc and the alert threshold varied with SARS-CoV-2 variants and available containment measures. The estimates were 9.54% and 12.59%, respectively, for D614G and increased to 14.14% and 25.10%, respectively, for the Alpha VOC when only NPIs and testing were available. The corresponding figures were 10.01% and 13.32% for the Delta VOC, but reduced to 4.29% and 5.19% for the Omicron VOC when NPIs, testing, and vaccination were available. The rapid preparedness of containment measures guided by the estimated metrics accounted for the lack of community-acquired outbreaks during the D614G period, the early Alpha VOC period, the Delta VOC period, and the Omicron VOC period between BA.1 and BA.2. In contrast, community-acquired outbreaks of the Alpha VOC in mid-May 2021, Omicron BA.1 VOC in January 2022, and Omicron BA.2 VOC from April 2022 onwards, were indicative of the failure to prepare containment measures guided by the alert threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed new surveillance metrics for estimating the risk of domestic cluster infections with increasing imported cases and its alert threshold for community-acquired infections varying with emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains and the availability of containment measures. The use of new surveillance metrics is important in the rapid preparedness of containment measures for averting large-scale community-acquired outbreaks arising from emerging imported SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Evaluating correlates of protection for mix-match vaccine against COVID-19 VOCs with potential of evading immunity.

BACKGROUND: In the face of rapid emerging variants of concern (VOCs) with potential of evading immunity from Beta to Omicron and uneven distribution of different vaccine brands, a mix-match strategy has been considered to enhance immunity. However, whether increasing immunogenicity using such a mix-match can lead to high clinical efficacy, particularly when facing Omicron pandemic, still remains elusive without using the traditional phase 3 trial. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how to evaluate correlates of protection (CoP) of the mix-match vaccination. METHODS: Data on neutralizing antibody (NtAb) titers and clinical efficacy against Wuhan or D614G strains of homologous ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or mRNA-1273 and heterologous vaccination were extracted from previous studies for demonstration. The reductions in NtAb titers of homologous vaccination against Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were obtained from literatures. A Bayesian inversion method was used to derive CoP from homologous to mix-match vaccine. Findings The predicted efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and mRNA-1273 for Wuhan or D614G strains was 93 % (89 %-97 %). Given 8 âˆ¼ 11-fold, 2 âˆ¼ 5.5-fold, and 32.5 âˆ¼ 36-fold reduction of NtAb for Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants compared with D614G, the corresponding predictive efficacy of the mix-match ranged from 75.63 % to 73.87 %, 84.87 % to 81.25 %, and 0.067 % to 0.059 %, respectively. Interpretations While ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and mRNA-1273 used for demonstrating how to timely evaluate CoP for the mix-match vaccine still provides clinical efficacy against Beta and Delta VOCs but it appears ineffective for Omicron variants, which highlights the urgent need for next generation vaccine against Omicron variant.

Factors associated with renal function state transitions: A population-based community survey in Taiwan.

Background: Understanding renal function state transition risk and associated factors in community residences is vital for appropriate preventive and care actions. We aim to investigate factors affecting renal function state transitions through 10-year longitudinal community screening surveys. Methods: The prospective cohort study included participants who attended the screening program ≥2 times from 2001 to 2009 and were divided into two cohorts: those with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 (n = 46,278) and those with eGFR 59-30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 4,656). We applied the illness-death model to identify associated factors with eGFR <60 and death for the cohort with baseline eGFR ≥60 and eGFR <30 and death for that with baseline eGFR ≥59-30. Results: Among the followed-up participants, 3,018 (6.5%) in the cohort of baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 322 (6.9%) in the cohort of eGFR 59-30 mL/min/1.73 m2 experienced renal function state transition during a median over 7-year follow-up. Besides eGFR and grade of proteinuria, diabetes mellitus (adding nearly 50% hazard rate) is the main factor associated with both state transitions. Other early-phase eGFR state transition risk factors were metabolic syndrome score, triglyceride, uric acid, fasting blood sugar, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Males, poor hemoglobin, high triglyceride, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were all linked with the late-phase eGFR state transition hazard rate. Conclusion: The study developed the state transition functions for community participants with varying renal function levels. Further actions to develop precision screening plans and services that incorporate personal risk factors and state transition risks are necessary.

Compromised cardiopulmonary resuscitation quality due to regurgitation during endotracheal intubation: a randomised crossover manikin simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Regurgitation is a complication common during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). This manikin study evaluated the effect of regurgitation during endotracheal intubation on CPR quality. METHODS: An airway-CPR manikin was modified to regurgitate simulated gastric contents into the oropharynx during chest compression during CPR. In total, 54 emergency medical technician-paramedics were assigned to either an oropharyngeal regurgitation or clean airway scenario and then switched to the other scenario after finishing the first. The primary outcomes were CPR quality metrics, including chest compression fraction (CCF), chest compression depth, chest compression rate, and longest interruption time. The secondary outcomes were intubation success rate and intubation time. RESULTS: During the first CPR-intubation sequence, the oropharyngeal regurgitation scenario was associated with a significantly lower CCF (79.6% vs. 85.1%, P < 0.001), compression depth (5.2 vs. 5.4 cm, P < 0.001), and first-pass success rate (35.2% vs. 79.6%, P < 0.001) and greater longest interruption duration (4.0 vs. 3.0 s, P < 0.001) than the clean airway scenario. During the second and third sequences, no significant difference was observed in the CPR quality metrics between the two scenarios. In the oropharyngeal regurgitation scenario, successful intubation was independently and significantly associated with compression depth (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.91), whereas none of the CPR quality metrics were related to successful intubation in the clean airway scenario. CONCLUSION: Regurgitation during endotracheal intubation significantly reduces CPR quality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05278923 , March 14, 2022.

Breast cancers originating from the major lactiferous ducts and the process of neoductgenesis: Ductal Adenocarcinoma of the Breast, DAB.

PURPOSE: To call attention to a highly fatal breast cancer subtype arising from the major lactiferous ducts that is currently underdiagnosed as ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) with or without microinvasion. METHOD: All breast cancers diagnosed at the Department of Mammography, Falun Central Hospital, Sweden, since 1977 have been classified according to their mammographic tumour features (imaging biomarkers) and followed up at regular intervals for the past four decades. The imaging biomarkers characteristic of breast cancers apparently arising from the major lactiferous ducts have been correlated with large format thin and thick section histopathology and long-term patient outcome. RESULTS: Breast cancers arising within the major lactiferous ducts propagate intraductally and produce continuously branching neoducts through epithelial-mesenchymal transformation (EMT), an invasive process termed neoductgenesis, which eventually forms a massive tumour burden. The high fatality of this breast cancer subtype indicates its truly invasive nature, although it is conventionally termed ductal carcinoma in situ, DCIS, terminology which is at odds with its poor long-term patient outcome. The neoducts are filled with multiple layers of malignant cells, have no attached lobules, and propagate by forming multiple invasive side branches. These newly formed duct-like structures are surrounded by a desmoplastic reaction (cancer associated fibroblasts, CAFs) and periductal lymphocytic infiltration. The neoducts are tightly packed together in irregular formations bearing no resemblance to the paniculate branching structure of normal lactiferous ducts. Cancers originating from the major ducts have six imaging biomarkers which can be easily recognized at breast imaging. These are described in detail in an accompanying article. CONCLUSIONS: Neoductgenesis in the breast, DAB, is similar in appearance and prognosis to ductal adenocarcinoma of the prostate, DAP. We propose the term ductal adenocarcinoma of the breast, DAB, to facilitate its recognition as a distinct invasive breast cancer subtype. The high fatality rates associated with neoductgenesis reflect the failure of current histopathologic diagnostic criteria to effectively guide therapeutic practice. When the neoducts are associated with small stellate/spiculated or spherical/oval-shaped invasive cancers arising from the terminal ductal lobular units (TDLUs), the prognosis and management are erroneously estimated according to the smaller invasive tumour(s), giving a false sense of security often resulting in undertreatment. Recognition that neoductgenesis is an invasive malignancy is a prerequisite for preventing treatment failure.

A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan.

Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95-117) in March-June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28-47) in July-September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI: 118-164) in October-December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI: 73-108) in January-April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.

Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen Stratifies the Risk of Liver Cancer in HBeAg-Negative Patients With Indeterminate Phase.

INTRODUCTION: Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are classified as indeterminate patients because they fall outside the defined CHB phases. We aimed to explore hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with indeterminate phase and investigated whether the risk could be stratified by serum levels of hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg). METHODS: Two retrospective cohorts enrolling HBeAg-negative, treatment-naïve CHB patients without cirrhosis were constructed (N = 2,150 in Taiwanese discovery cohort and N = 1,312 in Japanese validation cohort with a mean follow-up period of 15.88 and 12.07 years, respectively). The primary end point was HCC development. RESULTS: According to the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease guidelines, 990 (46%) HBeAg-negative patients had indeterminate CHB phase at baseline in the Taiwanese cohort. Compared with the patients with inactive CHB and those with immune-active CHB, the indeterminate patients exhibited intermediate but diverse risk of HCC. When HCC risk was stratified by a HBcrAg level of 10,000 U/mL, 10-year HCC cumulative incidence was 0.51% and 5.33% for low HBcrAg and high HBcrAg groups, respectively, with a hazard ratio of 4.47 (95% confidence interval: 2.62-7.63). This cutoff was validated to stratify HCC risk not only in different subgroup analyses but also in an independent Japanese cohort. Finally, the overall HBeAg-negative CHB patients could be simply reclassified into high-risk and low-risk groups by combining ALT, hepatitis B virus DNA, and HBcrAg levels in both cohorts. DISCUSSION: Serum HBcrAg level of 10,000 U/mL stratifies HCC risk in HBeAg-negative patients with indeterminate phase, which is useful for optimizing their clinical management.