An item response tree model with not-all-distinct end nodes for non-response modelling.

The non-response model in Knott et al. (1991, Statistician, 40, 217) can be represented as a tree model with one branch for response/non-response and another branch for correct/incorrect response, and each branch probability is characterized by an item response theory model. In the model, it is assumed that there is only one source of non-responses. However, in questionnaires or educational tests, non-responses might come from different sources, such as test speededness, inability to answer, lack of motivation, and sensitive questions. To better accommodate such more realistic underlying mechanisms, we propose a a tree model with four end nodes, not all distinct, for non-response modelling. The Laplace-approximated maximum likelihood estimation for the proposed model is suggested. The validation of the proposed estimation procedure and the advantage of the proposed model over traditional methods are demonstrated in simulations. For illustration, the methodologies are applied to data from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The analysis shows that the proposed tree model has a better fit to PISA data than other existing models, providing a useful tool to distinguish the sources of non-responses.

Unifying Differential Item Functioning in Factor Analysis for Categorical Data Under a Discretization of a Normal Variant.

The multiple-group categorical factor analysis (FA) model and the graded response model (GRM) are commonly used to examine polytomous items for differential item functioning to detect possible measurement bias in educational testing. In this study, the multiple-group categorical factor analysis model (MC-FA) and multiple-group normal-ogive GRM models are unified under the common framework of discretization of a normal variant. We rigorously justify a set of identified parameters and determine possible identifiability constraints necessary to make the parameters just-identified and estimable in the common framework of MC-FA. By doing so, the difference between categorical FA model and normal-ogive GRM is simply the use of two different sets of identifiability constraints, rather than the seeming distinction between categorical FA and GRM. Thus, we compare the performance on DIF assessment between the categorical FA and GRM approaches through simulation studies on the MC-FA models with their corresponding particular sets of identifiability constraints. Our results show that, under the scenarios with varying degrees of DIF for examinees of different ability levels, models with the GRM type of identifiability constraints generally perform better on DIF detection with a higher testing power. General guidelines regarding the choice of just-identified parameterization are also provided for practical use.

Power-law ansatz in complex systems: Excessive loss of information.

The ubiquity of power-law relations in empirical data displays physicists' love of simple laws and uncovering common causes among seemingly unrelated phenomena. However, many reported power laws lack statistical support and mechanistic backings, not to mention discrepancies with real data are often explained away as corrections due to finite size or other variables. We propose a simple experiment and rigorous statistical procedures to look into these issues. Making use of the fact that the occurrence rate and pulse intensity of crumple sound obey a power law with an exponent that varies with material, we simulate a complex system with two driving mechanisms by crumpling two different sheets together. The probability function of the crumple sound is found to transit from two power-law terms to a bona fide power law as compaction increases. In addition to showing the vicinity of these two distributions in the phase space, this observation nicely demonstrates the effect of interactions to bring about a subtle change in macroscopic behavior and more information may be retrieved if the data are subject to sorting. Our analyses are based on the Akaike information criterion that is a direct measurement of information loss and emphasizes the need to strike a balance between model simplicity and goodness of fit. As a show of force, the Akaike information criterion also found the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes and the scale-free model for a brain functional network, a two-dimensional sandpile, and solar flare intensity to suffer an excessive loss of information. They resemble more the crumpled-together ball at low compactions in that there appear to be two driving mechanisms that take turns occurring.

A speeded item response model: leave the harder till later.

A speeded item response model is proposed. We consider the situation where examinees may retain the harder items to a later test period in a time limit test. With such a strategy, examinees may not finish answering some of the harder items within the allocated time. In the proposed model, we try to describe such a mechanism by incorporating a speeded-effect term into the two-parameter logistic item response model. A Bayesian estimation procedure of the current model using Markov chain Monte Carlo is presented, and its performance over the two-parameter logistic item response model in a speeded test is demonstrated through simulations. The methodology is applied to physics examination data of the Department Required Test for college entrance in Taiwan for illustration.