Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming.

The tropical Pacific warming pattern since the 1950s exhibits two warming centers in the western Pacific (WP) and eastern Pacific (EP), encompassing an equatorial central Pacific (CP) cooling and a hemispheric asymmetry in the subtropical EP. The underlying mechanisms of this warming pattern remain debated. Here, we conduct ocean heat decompositions of two coupled model large ensembles to unfold the role of wind-driven ocean circulation. When wind changes are suppressed, historical radiative forcing induces a subtropical northeastern Pacific warming, thus causing a hemispheric asymmetry that extends toward the tropical WP. The tropical EP warming is instead induced by the cross-equatorial winds associated with the hemispheric asymmetry, and its driving mechanism is southward warm Ekman advection due to the off-equatorial westerly wind anomalies around 5°N, not vertical thermocline adjustment. Climate models fail to capture the observed CP cooling, suggesting an urgent need to better simulate equatorial oceanic processes and thermal structures.

Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming.

The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) has experienced enhanced surface warming relative to the tropical mean during the past century, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we use single-forcing, large-ensemble coupled model simulations to demonstrate that changes of biomass burning (BMB) aerosols have played a critical role in this TIO relative warming. Although the BMB aerosol changes have little effect on global mean temperatures due to regional cancellation, they significantly influence the pattern of warming over the tropical oceans. The reduction of BMB aerosols over the Indian subcontinent induces a TIO warming, while the increase of BMB aerosols over South America and Africa causes a cooling of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, respectively. The resultant TIO relative warming leads to prominent global climate changes, including a westward expanded Indo-Pacific warm pool, a fresher TIO due to enhanced rainfall, and an intensified North Atlantic jet stream affecting European hydroclimate.

Disentangling the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific climate change.

Most state-of-art models project a reduced equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and a weakened Walker circulation under global warming. However, the causes of this robust projection remain elusive. Here, we devise a series of slab ocean model experiments to diagnostically decompose the global warming response into the contributions from the direct carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, sea ice changes, and regional ocean heat uptake. The CO2 forcing dominates the Walker circulation slowdown through enhancing the tropical tropospheric stability. Antarctic sea ice changes and local ocean heat release are the dominant drivers for reduced zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific, while the Southern Ocean heat uptake opposes this change. Corroborating our model experiments, multimodel analysis shows that the models with greater Southern Ocean heat uptake exhibit less reduction in the temperature gradient and less weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, constraining the tropical Pacific projection requires a better insight into Southern Ocean processes.

Indian Ocean warming as a driver of the North Atlantic warming hole.

Over the past century, the subpolar North Atlantic experienced slight cooling or suppressed warming, relative to the background positive temperature trends, often dubbed the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). The causes of the NAWH remain under debate. Here we conduct coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations to demonstrate that enhanced Indian Ocean warming, another salient feature of global warming, could increase local rainfall and through teleconnections strengthen surface westerly winds south of Greenland, cooling the subpolar North Atlantic. In decades to follow however, this cooling effect would gradually vanish as the Indian Ocean warming acts to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We argue that the historical NAWH can potentially be explained by such atmospheric mechanisms reliant on surface wind changes, while oceanic mechanisms related to AMOC changes become more important on longer timescales. Thus, explaining the North Atlantic temperature trends and particularly the NAWH requires considering both atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms.

Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate.

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down under anthropogenic warming, the exact role of the AMOC in future climate change has not been fully quantified. Here, we present a method to stabilize the AMOC intensity in anthropogenic warming experiments by removing fresh water from the subpolar North Atlantic. This method enables us to isolate the AMOC climatic impacts in experiments with a full-physics climate model. Our results show that a weakened AMOC can explain ocean cooling south of Greenland that resembles the North Atlantic warming hole and a reduced Arctic sea ice loss in all seasons with a delay of about 6 years in the emergence of an ice-free Arctic in boreal summer. In the troposphere, a weakened AMOC causes an anomalous cooling band stretching from the lower levels in high latitudes to the upper levels in the tropics and displaces the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jets poleward.

Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014.

Intraseasonal wind bursts in the tropical Pacific are believed to affect the evolution and diversity of El Niño events. In particular, the occurrence of two strong westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in early 2014 apparently pushed the ocean-atmosphere system toward a moderate to strong El Niño--potentially an extreme event according to some climate models. However, the event's progression quickly stalled, and the warming remained very weak throughout the year. Here, we find that the occurrence of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst (EWB) in June was a key factor that impeded the El Niño development. It was shortly after this EWB that all major Niño indices fell rapidly to near-normal values; a modest growth resumed only later in the year. The easterly burst and the weakness of subsequent WWBs resulted in the persistence of two separate warming centers in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, suppressing the positive Bjerknes feedback critical for El Niño. Experiments with a climate model with superimposed wind bursts support these conclusions, pointing to inherent limits in El Niño predictability. Furthermore, we show that the spatial structure of the easterly burst matches that of the observed decadal trend in wind stress in the tropical Pacific, suggesting potential links between intraseasonal wind bursts and decadal climate variations.

Glacial to Holocene changes in trans-Atlantic Saharan dust transport and dust-climate feedbacks.

Saharan mineral dust exported over the tropical North Atlantic is thought to have significant impacts on regional climate and ecosystems, but limited data exist documenting past changes in long-range dust transport. This data gap limits investigations of the role of Saharan dust in past climate change, in particular during the mid-Holocene, when climate models consistently underestimate the intensification of the West African monsoon documented by paleorecords. We present reconstructions of African dust deposition in sediments from the Bahamas and the tropical North Atlantic spanning the last 23,000 years. Both sites show early and mid-Holocene dust fluxes 40 to 50% lower than recent values and maximum dust fluxes during the deglaciation, demonstrating agreement with records from the northwest African margin. These quantitative estimates of trans-Atlantic dust transport offer important constraints on past changes in dust-related radiative and biogeochemical impacts. Using idealized climate model experiments to investigate the response to reductions in Saharan dust's radiative forcing over the tropical North Atlantic, we find that small (0.15°C) dust-related increases in regional sea surface temperatures are sufficient to cause significant northward shifts in the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, increased precipitation in the western Sahel and Sahara, and reductions in easterly and northeasterly winds over dust source regions. Our results suggest that the amplifying feedback of dust on sea surface temperatures and regional climate may be significant and that accurate simulation of dust's radiative effects is likely essential to improving model representations of past and future precipitation variations in North Africa.