9000 years of change in coral community structure and accretion in Belize reefs, western Atlantic.

Tropical coral reefs, as prominent marine diversity hotspots, are in decline, and long-term studies help to improve understanding of the effects of global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, deterioration of water quality, and disease. Here, we evaluated relative coral abundance and reef accretion rates over the past 9000 years in Belize barrier and atoll reefs, the largest reef system in the Atlantic Ocean. Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. have been the most common corals. The abundance of competitive, fast-growing acroporids was constant over multi-millennial timescales. A decline in A. cervicornis abundance, however, and three centennial-scale gaps in A. palmata occurrence, suggest that the modern decline in acroporids was not unprecedented. Stress-tolerant corals predominate at the beginning of Holocene successions. Following the improvement of environmental conditions after inundation of the reef pedestal, their abundance has decreased. The abundance of weedy corals has increased during the Holocene underlining the importance of fecundity for the coral community. Reef-accretion rate, as calculated based on 76 new U-series age dates, has decreased over the Holocene and the mean value of 3.36 m kyr-1 is at the lower end of global reef growth compilations and predicted future rates of rise in sea level.

Climate and the latitudinal limits of subtropical reef development.

Climate plays a central role in coral-reef development, especially in marginal environments. The high-latitude reefs of southeast Florida are currently non-accreting, relict systems with low coral cover. This region also did not support the extensive Late Pleistocene reef development observed in many other locations around the world; however, there is evidence of significant reef building in southeast Florida during the Holocene. Using 146 radiometric ages from reefs extending ~ 120 km along Florida's southeast coast, we test the hypothesis that the latitudinal extent of Holocene reef development in this region was modulated by climatic variability. We demonstrate that although sea-level changes impacted rates of reef accretion and allowed reefs to backstep inshore as new habitats were flooded, sea level was not the ultimate cause of reef demise. Instead, we conclude that climate was the primary driver of the expansion and contraction of Florida's reefs during the Holocene. Reefs grew to 26.7° N in southeast Florida during the relatively warm, stable climate at the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~ 10,000 years ago, but subsequent cooling and increased frequency of winter cold fronts were associated with the equatorward contraction of reef building. By ~ 7800 years ago, actively accreting reefs only extended to 26.1° N. Reefs further contracted to 25.8° N after 5800 years ago, and by 3000 years ago reef development had terminated throughout southern Florida (24.5-26.7° N). Modern warming is unlikely to simply reverse this trend, however, because the climate of the Anthropocene will be fundamentally different from the HTM. By increasing the frequency and intensity of both warm and cold extreme-weather events, contemporary climate change will instead amplify conditions inimical to reef development in marginal reef environments such as southern Florida, making them more likely to continue to deteriorate than to resume accretion in the future.