Environmental gradients mediate dispersal evolution during biological invasions.

Rapid evolution of increased dispersal at the edge of a range expansion can accelerate invasions. However, populations expanding across environmental gradients often face challenging environments that reduce fitness of dispersing individuals. We used an eco-evolutionary model to explore how environmental gradients influence dispersal evolution and, in turn, modulate the speed and predictability of invasion. Environmental gradients opposed evolution of increased dispersal during invasion, even leading to evolution of reduced dispersal along steeper gradients. Counterintuitively, reduced dispersal could allow for faster expansion by minimizing maladaptive gene flow and facilitating adaptation. While dispersal evolution across homogenous landscapes increased both the mean and variance of expansion speed, these increases were greatly dampened by environmental gradients. We illustrate our model's potential application to prediction and management of invasions by parameterizing it with data from a recent invertebrate range expansion. Overall, we find that environmental gradients strongly modulate the effect of dispersal evolution on invasion trajectories.

Evolution is more repeatable in the introduction than range expansion phase of colonization.

How repeatable is evolution at genomic and phenotypic scales? We studied the repeatability of evolution during 8 generations of colonization using replicated microcosm experiments with the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Based on the patterns of shared allele frequency changes that occurred in populations from the same generation or experimental location, we found adaptive evolution to be more repeatable in the introduction and establishment phases of colonization than in the spread phase, when populations expand their range. Lastly, by studying changes in allele frequencies at conserved loci, we found evidence for the theoretical prediction that range expansion reduces the efficiency of selection to purge deleterious alleles. Overall, our results increase our understanding of adaptive evolution during colonization, demonstrating that evolution can be highly repeatable while also showing that stochasticity still plays an important role.

Immigration delays but does not prevent adaptation following environmental change: experimental evidence.

In today's rapidly changing world, it is critical to examine how animal populations will respond to severe environmental change. Following events such as pollution or deforestation that cause populations to decline, extinction will occur unless populations can adapt in response to natural selection, a process called evolutionary rescue. Theory predicts that immigration can delay extinction and provide novel genetic material that can prevent inbreeding depression and facilitate adaptation. However, when potential source populations have not experienced the new environment before (i.e., are naive), immigration can counteract selection and constrain adaptation. This study evaluated the effects of immigration of naive individuals on evolutionary rescue using the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, as a model system. Small populations were exposed to a challenging environment, and 3 immigration rates (0, 1, or 5 migrants per generation) were implemented with migrants from a benign environment. Following an initial decline in population size across all treatments, populations receiving no immigration gained a higher growth rate one generation earlier than those with immigration, illustrating the constraining effects of immigration on adaptation. After 7 generations, a reciprocal transplant experiment found evidence for adaptation regardless of immigration rate. Thus, while the immigration of naive individuals briefly delayed adaptation, it did not increase extinction risk or prevent adaptation following environmental change.

How density dependence, genetic erosion and the extinction vortex impact evolutionary rescue.

Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity.

Population demographic history and evolutionary rescue: Influence of a bottleneck event.

Rapid environmental change presents a significant challenge to the persistence of natural populations. Rapid adaptation that increases population growth, enabling populations that declined following severe environmental change to grow and avoid extinction, is called evolutionary rescue. Numerous studies have shown that evolutionary rescue can indeed prevent extinction. Here, we extend those results by considering the demographic history of populations. To evaluate how demographic history influences evolutionary rescue, we created 80 populations of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, with three classes of demographic history: diverse populations that did not experience a bottleneck, and populations that experienced either an intermediate or a strong bottleneck. We subjected these populations to a new and challenging environment for six discrete generations and tracked extinction and population size. Populations that did not experience a bottleneck in their demographic history avoided extinction entirely, while more than 20% of populations that experienced an intermediate or strong bottleneck went extinct. Similarly, among the extant populations at the end of the experiment, adaptation increased the growth rate in the novel environment the most for populations that had not experienced a bottleneck in their history. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of considering the demographic history of populations to make useful and effective conservation decisions and management strategies for populations experiencing environmental change that pushes them toward extinction.

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers.

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Rapid and transient evolution of local adaptation to seasonal host fruits in an invasive pest fly.

Both local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity can influence the match between phenotypic traits and local environmental conditions. Theory predicts that environments stable for multiple generations promote local adaptation, whereas highly heterogeneous environments favor adaptive phenotypic plasticity. However, when environments have periods of stability mixed with heterogeneity, the relative importance of local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity is unclear. Here, we used Drosophila suzukii as a model system to evaluate the relative influence of genetic and plastic effects on the match of populations to environments with periods of stability from three to four generations. This invasive pest insect can develop within different fruits, and persists throughout the year in a given location on a succession of distinct host fruits, each one being available for only a few generations. Using reciprocal common environment experiments of natural D. suzukii populations collected from cherry, strawberry, and blackberry, we found that both oviposition preference and offspring performance were higher on medium made with the fruit from which the population originated than on media made with alternative fruits. This pattern, which remained after two generations in the laboratory, was analyzed using a statistical method we developed to quantify the contributions of local adaptation and adaptive plasticity in determining fitness. Altogether, we found that genetic effects (local adaptation) dominate over plastic effects (adaptive phenotypic plasticity). Our study demonstrates that spatially and temporally variable selection does not prevent the rapid evolution of local adaptation in natural populations. The speed and strength of adaptation may be facilitated by several mechanisms including a large effective population size and strong selective pressures imposed by host plants.

Evolution of reproductive life-history and dispersal traits during the range expansion of a biological control agent.

Evolutionary theory predicts that the process of range expansion will lead to differences in life-history and dispersal traits between the core and edge of a population. At the edge, selection and genetic drift can have opposing effects on reproductive ability, while spatial sorting by dispersal ability can increase dispersal. However, the context that individuals experience, including population density and mating status, also impacts dispersal behavior. We seek to understand the shifts in traits of populations expanding across natural, heterogenous environments, and the evolutionary and behavioral factors that may drive those shifts. We evaluated theoretical predictions for evolution of reproductive life-history and dispersal traits using the range expansion of a biological control agent, Diorhabda carinulata, or northern tamarisk beetle. We find that individuals from the edge had increased fecundity and female body mass, and reduced age at first reproduction, indicating that genetic load is low and suggesting that selection has acted at the edge. We also find that density of conspecifics during rearing and mating status influence dispersal of males and that dispersal increases at the edge of the range under certain conditions, particularly when males were unmated and reared at low density. The restricted conditions in which dispersal has increased suggest that spatial sorting has exerted weak effects relative to other potential processes. Our results support most theoretical predictions about evolution during range expansion, even across a heterogeneous environment, especially when the ecological context is considered.

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits.

What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation-environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.

Hybridization and range expansion in tamarisk beetles (Diorhabda spp.) introduced to North America for classical biological control.

With the global rise of human-mediated translocations and invasions, it is critical to understand the genomic consequences of hybridization and mechanisms of range expansion. Conventional wisdom is that high genetic drift and loss of genetic diversity due to repeated founder effects will constrain introduced species. However, reduced genetic variation can be countered by behavioral aspects and admixture with other distinct populations. As planned invasions, classical biological control (biocontrol) agents present important opportunities to understand the mechanisms of establishment and spread in a novel environment. The ability of biocontrol agents to spread and adapt, and their effects on local ecosystems, depends on genomic variation and the consequences of admixture in novel environments. Here, we use a biocontrol system to examine the genome-wide outcomes of introduction, spread, and hybridization in four cryptic species of a biocontrol agent, the tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda carinata, D. carinulata, D. elongata, and D. sublineata), introduced from six localities across Eurasia to control the invasive shrub tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in western North America. We assembled a de novo draft reference genome and applied RADseq to over 500 individuals across laboratory cultures, the native ranges, and the introduced range. Despite evidence of a substantial genetic bottleneck among D. carinulata in N. America, populations continue to establish and spread, possibly due to aggregation behavior. We found that D. carinata, D. elongata, and D. sublineata hybridize in the field to varying extents, with D. carinata × D. sublineata hybrids being the most abundant. Genetic diversity was greater at sites with hybrids, highlighting potential for increased ability to adapt and expand. Our results demonstrate the complex patterns of genomic variation that can result from introduction of multiple ecotypes or species for biocontrol, and the importance of understanding them to predict and manage the effects of biocontrol agents in novel ecosystems.

Adaptation and correlated fitness responses over two time scales in Drosophila suzukii populations evolving in different environments.

The process of local adaptation involves differential changes in fitness over time across different environments. Although experimental evolution studies have extensively tested for patterns of local adaptation at a single time point, there is relatively little research that examines fitness more than once during the time course of adaptation. We allowed replicate populations of the fruit pest Drosophila suzukii to evolve in one of eight different fruit media. After five generations, populations with the highest initial levels of maladaptation had mostly gone extinct, whereas experimental populations evolving on cherry, strawberry and cranberry media had survived. We measured the fitness of each surviving population in each of the three fruit media after five and after 26 generations of evolution. After five generations, adaptation to each medium was associated with increased fitness in the two other media. This was also true after 26 generations, except when populations that evolved on cranberry medium developed on cherry medium. These results suggest that, in the theoretical framework of a fitness landscape, the fitness optima of cherry and cranberry media are the furthest apart. Our results show that studying how fitness changes across several environments and across multiple generations provides insights into the dynamics of local adaptation that would not be evident if fitness were analysed at a single point in time. By allowing a qualitative mapping of an experimental fitness landscape, our approach will improve our understanding of the ecological factors that drive the evolution of local adaptation in D. suzukii.

Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects.

A long-standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non-native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense-free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non-native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century.Using a census of all 58 non-native conifer-specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects).We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non-native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non-native herbivorous insects.Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non-native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R 2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.

How Evolution Modifies the Variability of Range Expansion.

Eco-evolutionary theory suggests that rapid evolution can accelerate range expansion speed. In addition to average speed, recent experimental studies reveal that evolution can also influence the amount of variability across replicates of spreading populations, but in contrasting ways. Here we develop a predictive framework, drawing on ideas from population genetics and spread theory, to understand when, why, and in what direction evolution will modify the variability of range expansion. Our framework revolves around the balance of variance-generating (drift) and variance-reducing (selective) evolutionary processes, and factors that may tip this balance, including population size at the leading edge and mating system. We suggest hypotheses to clarify contrasting experimental results and highlight a way forward for studying eco-evolutionary dynamics of range expansion.

Oviposition Preference and Larval Performance of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), Spotted-Wing Drosophila: Effects of Fruit Identity and Composition.

A better understanding of the factors affecting host plant use by spotted-wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) could aid in the development of efficient management tools and practices to control this pest. Here, proxies of both preference (maternal oviposition behavior) and performance (adult emergence) were evaluated for 12 different fruits in the form of purees. The effect of the chemical composition of the fruits on preference and performance traits was then estimated. We synthesized the literature to interpret our findings in the light of previous studies that measured oviposition preference and larval performance of D. suzukii. We show that fruit identity influences different parts of the life cycle, including oviposition preference under both choice and no-choice conditions, emergence rate, development time, and number of emerging adults. Blackcurrant was always among the most preferred fruit we used, while grape and tomato were the least preferred fruits. Larvae performed better in cranberry, raspberry, strawberry, and cherry than in the other fruits tested. We found that fruit chemical compounds can explain part of the effect of fruit on D. suzukii traits. In particular, oviposition preference under choice conditions was strongly influenced by fruit phosphorus content. In general, the consensus across studies is that raspberry, blackberry, and strawberry are among the best hosts while blackcurrant, grape and rose hips are poor hosts. Our results generally confirm this view but also suggest that oviposition preferences do not necessarily match larval performances. We discuss opportunities to use our results to develop new approaches for pest management.

Into the weeds: Matching importation history to genetic consequences and pathways in two widely used biological control agents.

The intentional introduction of exotic species through classical biological control programs provides unique opportunities to examine the consequences of population movement and ecological processes for the genetic diversity and population structure of introduced species. The weevils Neochetina bruchi and N. eichhorniae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) have been introduced globally to control the invasive floating aquatic weed, Eichhornia crassipes, with variable outcomes. Here, we use the importation history and data from polymorphic microsatellite markers to examine the effects of introduction processes on population genetic diversity and structure. We report the first confirmation of hybridization between these species, which could have important consequences for the biological control program. For both species, there were more rare alleles in weevils from the native range than in weevils from the introduced range. N. eichhorniae also had higher allelic richness in the native range than in the introduced range. Neither the number of individuals initially introduced nor the number of introduction steps appeared to consistently affect genetic diversity. We found evidence of genetic drift, inbreeding, and admixture in several populations as well as significant population structure. Analyses estimated two populations and 11 sub-clusters for N. bruchi and four populations and 23 sub-clusters for N. eichhorniae, indicating divergence of populations during and after introduction. Genetic differentiation and allocation of introduced populations to source populations generally supported the documented importation history and clarified pathways in cases where multiple introductions occurred. In populations with multiple introductions, genetic admixture may have buffered against the negative effects of serial bottlenecks on genetic diversity. The genetic data combined with the introduction history from this biological control study system provide insight on the accuracy of predicting introduction pathways from genetic data and the consequences of these pathways for the genetic variation and structure of introduced species.

Stochastic processes drive rapid genomic divergence during experimental range expansions.

Range expansions are crucibles for rapid evolution, acting via both selective and neutral mechanisms. While selection on traits such as dispersal and fecundity may increase expansion speed, neutral mechanisms arising from repeated bottlenecks and genetic drift in edge populations (i.e. gene surfing) could slow spread or make it less predictable. Thus, it is necessary to disentangle the effects of selection from neutral mechanisms to robustly predict expansion dynamics. This is difficult to do with expansions in nature, as replicated expansions are required to distinguish selective and neutral processes in the genome. Using replicated microcosms of the red flour beetle ( Tribolium castaneum), we identify a robust signature of stochastic, neutral mechanisms in genomic changes arising over only eight generations of expansion and assess the role of standing variation and de novo mutations in driving these changes. Average genetic diversity was reduced within edge populations, but with substantial among-replicate variability in the changes at specific genomic windows. Such variability in genomic changes is consistent with a large role for stochastic, neutral processes. This increased genomic divergence among populations was mirrored by heightened variation in population size and expansion speed, suggesting that stochastic variation in the genome could increase unpredictability of range expansions.

The effects of agent hybridization on the efficacy of biological control of tansy ragwort at high elevations.

The success rate of weed biological control programs is difficult to evaluate and the factors affecting it remain poorly understood. One aspect which is still unclear is whether releases of multiple, genetically distinct populations of a biological control agent increase the likelihood of success, either by independent colonization of different environmental niches or by hybridization that may increase the agent's fitness and adaptive ability. Since hybridization is often invoked to explain the success of unintentionally introduced exotic species, hybridization among biocontrol agents may be similarly important in shaping the effectiveness of biological control programs. In this study, we first evaluated intraspecific hybridization among populations of a weed biological control agent, the ragwort flea beetle, Longitarsus jacobaeae. These insects were introduced as part of a classical biological control program from Italy and Switzerland. We genotyped 204 individuals from 15 field sites collected in northwest Montana, and an additional 52 individuals that served as references for Italian and Swiss populations. Bayesian analysis of population structure assigned seven populations as pure Swiss and one population as pure Italian, while intraspecific hybrid individuals were detected in seven populations at frequencies of 5%-69%. Subsequently, we conducted a 2-year exclusion experiment using six sites with Swiss beetles and three with hybrid beetles to evaluate the impact of biological control. We found that biological control by Swiss beetles and by hybrid beetles is effective, increasing mortality of the target plant, Jacobaea vulgaris, by 42% and 45%, and reducing fecundity of surviving plants by 44% and 72%, respectively. Beetle densities were higher and mortality of larger plants was higher at sites with hybrids present. These results suggest that hybridization of ragwort flea beetles at high-elevation sites may improve biological control of tansy ragwort and that intraspecific hybridization of agents could benefit biological control programs.

The importance of growing up: juvenile environment influences dispersal of individuals and their neighbours.

Dispersal is a key ecological process that is strongly influenced by both phenotype and environment. Here, we show that juvenile environment influences dispersal not only by shaping individual phenotypes, but also by changing the phenotypes of neighbouring conspecifics, which influence how individuals disperse. We used a model system (Tribolium castaneum, red flour beetles) to test how the past environment of dispersing individuals and their neighbours influences how they disperse in their current environment. We found that individuals dispersed especially far when exposed to a poor environment as adults if their phenotype, or even one-third of their neighbours' phenotypes, were shaped by a poor environment as juveniles. Juvenile environment therefore shapes dispersal both directly, by influencing phenotype, as well as indirectly, by influencing the external social environment. Thus, the juvenile environment of even a minority of individuals in a group can influence the dispersal of the entire group.

Parsing propagule pressure: Number, not size, of introductions drives colonization success in a novel environment.

Predicting whether individuals will colonize a novel habitat is of fundamental ecological interest and is crucial to conservation efforts. A consistently supported predictor of colonization success is the number of individuals introduced, also called propagule pressure. Propagule pressure increases with the number of introductions and the number of individuals per introduction (the size of the introduction), but it is unresolved which process is a stronger driver of colonization success. Furthermore, their relative importance may depend upon the environment, with multiple introductions potentially enhancing colonization of fluctuating environments. To evaluate the relative importance of the number and size of introductions and its dependence upon environmental variability, we paired demographic simulations with a microcosm experiment. Using Tribolium flour beetles as a model system, we introduced a fixed number of individuals into replicated novel habitats of stable or fluctuating quality, varying the number of introductions through time and size of each introduction. We evaluated establishment probability and the size of extant populations through seven generations. We found that establishment probability generally increased with more, smaller introductions, but was not affected by biologically realistic fluctuations in environmental quality. Population size was not significantly affected by environmental variability in the simulations, but populations in the microcosms grew larger in a stable environment, especially with more introduction events. In general, the microcosm experiment yielded higher establishment probability and larger populations than the demographic simulations. We suggest that genetic mechanisms likely underlie these differences and thus deserve more attention in efforts to parse propagule pressure. Our results highlight the importance of preventing further introductions of undesirable species to invaded sites and suggest conservation efforts should focus on increasing the number of introductions or reintroductions of desirable species rather than increasing the size of those introduction events into harsh environments.

The power of evolutionary rescue is constrained by genetic load.

The risk of extinction faced by small isolated populations in changing environments can be reduced by rapid adaptation and subsequent growth to larger, less vulnerable sizes. Whether this process, called evolutionary rescue, is able to reduce extinction risk and sustain population growth over multiple generations is largely unknown. To understand the consequences of adaptive evolution as well as maladaptive processes in small isolated populations, we subjected experimental Tribolium castaneum populations founded with 10 or 40 individuals to novel environments, one more favorable, and one resource poor, and either allowed evolution, or constrained it by replacing individuals one-for-one each generation with those from a large population maintained in the natal environment. Replacement individuals spent one generation in the target novel environment before use to standardize effects due to the parental environment. After eight generations we mixed a subset of surviving populations to facilitate admixture, allowing us to estimate drift load by comparing performance of mixed to unmixed groups. Evolving populations had reduced extinction rates, and increased population sizes in the first four to five generations compared to populations where evolution was constrained. Performance of evolving populations subsequently declined. Admixture restored their performance, indicating high drift load that may have overwhelmed the beneficial effects of adaptation in evolving populations. Our results indicate that evolution may quickly reduce extinction risk and increase population sizes, but suggest that relying solely on adaptation from standing genetic variation may not provide long-term benefits to small isolated populations of diploid sexual species, and that active management facilitating gene flow may be necessary for longer term persistence.