RESUMO
As COVID-19 is pervasive across the globe, governments in different countries face the dilemma of restricting the transmission risk of the virus by social distancing while yet maintaining economic activity. Inadequate social distancing policies lead to more infection cases and deaths, while over stringent social distancing policies have significant economic cost implications. This study investigates the role of local government institutions in striking the balance between saving lives and economic recovery. We based our study on a sample of 28 provincial governments in China during the early outbreak of 2020 when the emergency responses of local governments were synchronous. The findings show that local governments in those provinces with lower degrees of marketization, which were accustomed to directly intervene in the social system, mandatorily quarantined many more close contacts for each confirmed case than those in the more market-oriented provinces whose social distancing policies took economic considerations into account. The 'overdone' (over stringent) social distancing policies in the more state-oriented provinces led to lower human mobility and economic growth. This study highlights the importance of taking economic considerations into account when adopting policies and strategies to combat the spread of COVID-19 and how different institution management cultures lead to different outcomes.
RESUMO
This study applies OLS, panel regression and Granger causality test to investigate the impact of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak on the global equity markets during the early stage of the pandemic. We find that the Covid-19 outbreak has a significant negative impact on the overall equity index return of the eight economies even at 0.1% significance level. Furthermore, the pandemic has a more significant impact on the European countries than on the East Asian economies. The results have three main implications. Firstly, policy makers should react fast to mitigate the impact of a crisis. Secondly, investors should be aware of an outbreak of disease or other risks and adjust their investments accordingly. Furthermore, the Covid-19 outbreak results in a shift of power from the west to the east.
RESUMO
In this paper, studies on the real estate markets mainly focused on the relationship between abrupt change points and corresponding political issues and economic collapse. Within the past statistical framework, change-point detection technique was widely considered based on large and long data sets. Few studies considered the situation where a limited size of time-series data sets is available in the real estate markets. To fill in this gap, the wavelet analysis with minimax threshold is introduced in this paper. By comparing Daubechies LA(8), wavelet analysis with minimax threshold is a versatile and powerful approach to the analysis of residential data as they are flexible in their function form and provide a robust computational method even with a small sample size. The detected change points reflect some significant political issues and economic collapses. It can be shown from the empirical result that a "diffusion relationship" happened from one location to another.
RESUMO
This study investigates property securities bubbles and crashes by using a dynamic mathematical methodology developed from the previous research (Watanabe et al. 2007a, b [31], [32]). The improved model is used to detect the bubble and crash periods in five international countries/cities (namely, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore) from Jan, 2000 to Oct, 2008. By this model definition, we are able to detect the beginning of each bubble period even before it bursts. Meanwhile, the empirical results show that most of property securities markets experienced bubble periods between 2003 and 2007, and crashes happened in Apr 2008 triggered by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of US. In contrast, Japan suffered the shortest bubble period and no evidence has documented the existence of crash there.
