Applying the estimand and target trial frameworks to external control analyses using observational data: a case study in the solid tumor setting.

Introduction: In causal inference, the correct formulation of the scientific question of interest is a crucial step. The purpose of this study was to apply causal inference principles to external control analysis using observational data and illustrate the process to define the estimand attributes. Methods: This study compared long-term survival outcomes of a pooled set of three previously reported randomized phase 3 trials studying patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer receiving front-line chemotherapy and similar patients treated with front-line chemotherapy as part of routine clinical care. Causal inference frameworks were applied to define the estimand aligned with the research question and select the estimator to estimate the estimand of interest. Results: The estimand attributes of the ideal trial were defined using the estimand framework. The target trial framework was used to address specific issues in defining the estimand attributes using observational data from a nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database. The two frameworks combined allow to clearly define the estimand and the aligned estimator while accounting for key baseline confounders, index date, and receipt of subsequent therapies. The hazard ratio estimate (point estimate with 95% confidence interval) comparing the randomized clinical trial pooled control arm with the external control was close to 1, which is indicative of similar survival between the two arms. Discussion: The proposed combined framework provides clarity on the causal contrast of interest and the estimator to adopt, and thus facilitates design and interpretation of the analyses.

Considerations for pooling real-world data as a comparator cohort to a single arm trial: a simulation study on assessment of heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Novel precision medicine therapeutics target increasingly granular, genomically-defined populations. Rare sub-groups make it challenging to study within a clinical trial or single real-world data (RWD) source; therefore, pooling from disparate sources of RWD may be required for feasibility. Heterogeneity assessment for pooled data is particularly complex when contrasting a pooled real-world comparator cohort (rwCC) with a single-arm clinical trial (SAT), because the individual comparisons are not independent as all compare a rwCC to the same SAT. Our objective was to develop a methodological framework for pooling RWD focused on the rwCC use case, and simulate novel approaches of heterogeneity assessment, especially for small datasets. METHODS: We present a framework with the following steps: pre-specification, assessment of dataset eligibility, and outcome analyses (including assessment of outcome heterogeneity). We then simulated heterogeneity assessments for a binary response outcome in a SAT compared to two rwCCs, using standard methods for meta-analysis, and an Adjusted Cochran's Q test, and directly comparing the individual participant data (IPD) from the rwCCs. RESULTS: We found identical power to detect a true difference for the adjusted Cochran's Q test and the IPD method, with both approaches superior to a standard Cochran's Q test. When assessing the impact of heterogeneity in the null scenario of no difference between the SAT and rwCCs, a lack of statistical power led to Type 1 error inflation. Similarly, in the alternative scenario of a true difference between SAT and rwCCs, we found substantial Type 2 error, with underpowered heterogeneity testing leading to underestimation of the treatment effect. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a methodological framework for pooling RWD sources in the context of designing a rwCC for a SAT. When testing for heterogeneity during this process, the adjusted Cochran's Q test matches the statistical power of IPD heterogeneity testing. Limitations of quantitative heterogeneity testing in protecting against Type 1 or Type 2 error indicate these tests are best used descriptively, and after careful selection of datasets based on clinical/data considerations. We hope these findings will facilitate the rigorous pooling of RWD to unlock insights to benefit oncology patients.

Real-world survival outcomes in patients with locally advanced or metastatic NTRK fusion-positive solid tumors receiving standard-of-care therapies other than targeted TRK inhibitors.

The clinical profiles and outcomes of patients with neurotrophic tropomyosin receptor kinase fusion-positive (NTRK+) solid tumors receiving standard of care other than tropomyosin receptor kinase inhibitor (TRKi) targeted therapy have not been well documented. Here, we describe the clinical characteristics of patients with NTRK+ tumors treated in clinical practice using information from a United States electronic health record-derived clinicogenomic database. We also compared survival outcomes in NTRK+ patients and matched NTRK fusion-negative (NTRK-) patients and investigated the clinical prognostic value of NTRK fusions. NTRK positivity was defined by the presence of a fusion or rearrangement involving NTRK1/2/3, determined using NGS (Foundation Medicine, Inc.). NTRK+ patients (n = 28) were diagnosed with locally advanced/metastatic solid tumors between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2019 and had received no TRKis (e.g., entrectinib or larotrectinib) during their patient journey. The unselected NTRK-population comprised 24,903 patients, and the matched NTRK-cohort included 280 patients. NTRK+ patients tended to be younger, were more commonly not smokers, and had a shorter time from advanced diagnosis to first NGS report, compared with unselected NTRK-patients; however, these differences were not significant. Median overall survival (OS) from advanced/metastatic diagnosis was 10.2 months (95% CI, 7.2-14.1) for the NTRK+ cohort versus 10.4 months (95% CI, 6.7-14.3) for the matched NTRK-cohort; hazard ratio for death in NTRK+ versus matched NTRK-patients was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.0-2.5; P = 0.05). Genomic co-alterations were rare in the NTRK+ cohort (only two of 28 patients had a co-alteration). Overall, while hazard ratios suggest NTRK fusions may be a negative prognostic factor of survival, there are no significant indications of any favorable impact of NTRK fusions on patient outcomes. TRKis, with their high response rate and good tolerability, are likely to improve outcomes for patients compared with existing standard-of-care treatments.

Bayesian additional evidence for decision making under small sample uncertainty.

BACKGROUND: Statistical inference based on small datasets, commonly found in precision oncology, is subject to low power and high uncertainty. In these settings, drawing strong conclusions about future research utility is difficult when using standard inferential measures. It is therefore important to better quantify the uncertainty associated with both significant and non-significant results based on small sample sizes. METHODS: We developed a new method, Bayesian Additional Evidence (BAE), that determines (1) how much additional supportive evidence is needed for a non-significant result to reach Bayesian posterior credibility, or (2) how much additional opposing evidence is needed to render a significant result non-credible. Although based in Bayesian analysis, a prior distribution is not needed; instead, the tipping point output is compared to reasonable effect ranges to draw conclusions. We demonstrate our approach in a comparative effectiveness analysis comparing two treatments in a real world biomarker-defined cohort, and provide guidelines for how to apply BAE in practice. RESULTS: Our initial comparative effectiveness analysis results in a hazard ratio of 0.31 with 95% confidence interval (0.09, 1.1). Applying BAE to this result yields a tipping point of 0.54; thus, an observed hazard ratio of 0.54 or smaller in a replication study would result in posterior credibility for the treatment association. Given that effect sizes in this range are not extreme, and that supportive evidence exists from a similar published study, we conclude that this problem is worthy of further research. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed method provides a useful framework for interpreting analytic results from small datasets. This can assist researchers in deciding how to interpret and continue their investigations based on an initial analysis that has high uncertainty. Although we illustrated its use in estimating parameters based on time-to-event outcomes, BAE easily applies to any normally-distributed estimator, such as those used for analyzing binary or continuous outcomes.

Use of a Remote Inhaler Monitoring Device to Measure Change in Inhaler Use with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Remote inhaler monitoring is an emerging technology that enables the healthcare team to monitor the time and location of a patient's inhaler use. We assessed the feasibility of remote inhaler monitoring for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients and the pattern of albuterol inhaler use associated with COPD exacerbations. METHODS: Thirty-five participants with COPD used an electronic inhaler sensor for 12 weeks which recorded the date and time of each albuterol actuation. Self-reported COPD exacerbations and healthcare utilization were assessed monthly. We used generalized estimating equations with a logit link to compare the odds of an exacerbation day to a nonexacerbation day by the frequency of daily albuterol use. RESULTS: Average daily albuterol use on nonexacerbation days varied greatly between patients, ranging from 1.5 to 17.5 puffs. There were 48 exacerbation events observed in 29 participants during the study period, of which 16 were moderate-to-severe exacerbations. During the moderate-to-severe exacerbation days, the median value in average daily albuterol use increased by 14.1% (interquartile range: 2.7%-56.9%) compared to average nonexacerbation days. A 100% increase in inhaler use was associated with increased odds of a moderate-to severe exacerbation (odds ratio 1.54; 95% CI: 1.21-1.97). Approximately 74% of participants reported satisfaction with the sensor. CONCLUSIONS: The electronic inhaler sensor was well received in older patients with COPD over a 12-week period. Increased albuterol use captured by the device was associated with self-reported episodes of moderate-to-severe exacerbations.

Effect of a mobile health, sensor-driven asthma management platform on asthma control.

BACKGROUND: Asthma inflicts a significant health and economic burden in the United States. Self-management approaches to monitoring and treatment can be burdensome for patients. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a digital health management program on asthma outcomes. METHODS: Residents of Louisville, Kentucky, with asthma were enrolled in a single-arm pilot study. Participants received electronic inhaler sensors that tracked the time, frequency, and location of short-acting ß-agonist (SABA) use. After a 30-day baseline period during which reference medication use was recorded by the sensors, participants received access to a digital health intervention designed to enhance self-management. Changes in outcomes, including mean daily SABA use, symptom-free days, and asthma control status, were compared among the initial 30-day baseline period and all subsequent months of the intervention using mixed-model logistic regressions and χ2 tests. RESULTS: The mean number of SABA events per participant per day was 0.44 during the control period and 0.27 after the first month of the intervention, a 39% reduction. The percentage of symptom-free days was 77% during the baseline period and 86% after the first month, a 12% improvement. Improvement was observed throughout the study; each intervention month demonstrated significantly lower SABA use and higher symptom-free days than the baseline month (P < .001). Sixty-nine percent had well-controlled asthma during the baseline period, 67% during the first month of the intervention. Each intervention month demonstrated significantly higher percentages than the baseline month (P < .001), except for month 1 (P = .80). CONCLUSION: A digital health asthma management intervention demonstrated significant reductions in SABA use, increased number of symptom-free days, and improvements in asthma control. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02162576.

Feasibility of Deploying Inhaler Sensors to Identify the Impacts of Environmental Triggers and Built Environment Factors on Asthma Short-Acting Bronchodilator Use.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological asthma research has relied upon self-reported symptoms or healthcare utilization data, and used the residential address as the primary location for exposure. These data sources can be temporally limited, spatially aggregated, subjective, and burdensome for the patient to collect. OBJECTIVES: First, we aimed to test the feasibility of collecting rescue inhaler use data in space-time using electronic sensors. Second, we aimed to evaluate whether these data have the potential to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors associated with rescue inhaler use and to determine whether these findings would be consistent with the existing literature. METHODS: We utilized zero-truncated negative binomial models to identify triggers associated with inhaler use, and implemented three sensitivity analyses to validate our findings. RESULTS: Electronic sensors fitted on metered dose inhalers tracked 5,660 rescue inhaler use events in space and time for 140 participants from 13 June 2012 to 28 February 2014. We found that the inhaler sensors were feasible in passively collecting objective rescue inhaler use data. We identified several environmental triggers with a positive and significant association with inhaler use, including: AQI, PM10, weed pollen, and mold. Conversely, the spatial distribution of tree cover demonstrated a negative and significant association with inhaler use. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing a sensor to capture the signal of rescue inhaler use in space-time offered a passive and objective signal of asthma activity. This approach enabled detailed analyses to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors that are associated with asthma symptoms beyond the residential address. The application of these new technologies has the potential to improve our surveillance and understanding of asthma. Citation: Su JG, Barrett MA, Henderson K, Humblet O, Smith T, Sublett JW, Nesbitt L, Hogg C, Van Sickle D, Sublett JL. 2017. Feasibility of deploying inhaler sensors to identify the impacts of environmental triggers and built environment factors on asthma short-acting bronchodilator use. Environ Health Perspect 125:254-261; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP266.

Perfluoroalkyl chemicals and asthma among children 12-19 years of age: NHANES (1999-2008).

BACKGROUND: Perfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs) are a family of commonly used industrial chemicals whose persistence and ubiquity in human blood samples has led to concern about possible toxicity. Several animal studies and one recent human study have suggested a link between exposure to PFCs and asthma, although few epidemiologic studies have been conducted. OBJECTIVES: We investigated children's PFC serum concentrations and their associations with asthma-related outcomes. METHODS: We evaluated the association between serum concentrations of eight PFCs, including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS), with self-reported lifetime asthma, recent wheezing, and current asthma using data from participants 12-19 years of age from the 1999-2000 and 2003-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, PFOA was associated with higher odds of ever having received a diagnosis of asthma [odds ratio (OR) = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.39 for a doubling in PFOA], whereas for PFOS there were inverse relationships with both asthma and wheezing (OR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.74, 1.04, and OR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.02, respectively). The associations were attenuated after accounting for sampling weights. No associations were seen between the other PFCs and any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This cross-sectional study provides some evidence for associations between exposure to PFCs and asthma-related outcomes in children. The evidence is inconsistent, however, and prospective studies are needed.

Genetic modification of the association between peripubertal dioxin exposure and pubertal onset in a cohort of Russian boys.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to dioxins has been associated with delayed pubertal onset in both epidemiologic and animal studies. Whether genetic polymorphisms may modify this association is currently unknown. Identifying such genes could provide insight into mechanistic pathways. This is one of the first studies to assess genetic susceptibility to dioxins. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether common polymorphisms in genes affecting either molecular responses to dioxin exposure or pubertal onset influence the association between peripubertal serum dioxin concentration and male pubertal onset. METHODS: In this prospective cohort of Russian adolescent boys (n = 392), we assessed gene-environment interactions for 337 tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 46 candidate genes and two intergenic regions. Dioxins were measured in the boys' serum at age 8-9 years. Pubertal onset was based on testicular volume and on genitalia staging. Statistical approaches for controlling for multiple testing were used, both with and without prescreening for marginal genetic associations. RESULTS: After accounting for multiple testing, two tag SNPs in the glucocorticoid receptor (GR/NR3C1) gene and one in the estrogen receptor-α (ESR1) gene were significant (q < 0.2) modifiers of the association between peripubertal serum dioxin concentration and male pubertal onset defined by genitalia staging, although not by testicular volume. The results were sensitive to whether multiple comparison adjustment was applied to all gene-environment tests or only to those with marginal genetic associations. CONCLUSIONS: Common genetic polymorphisms in the glucocorticoid receptor and estrogen receptor-α genes may modify the association between peripubertal serum dioxin concentration and pubertal onset. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Big Data and Disease Prevention: From Quantified Self to Quantified Communities.

Big data is often discussed in the context of improving medical care, but it also has a less appreciated but equally important role to play in preventing disease. Big data can facilitate action on the modifiable risk factors that contribute to a large fraction of the chronic disease burden, such as physical activity, diet, tobacco use, and exposure to pollution. It can do so by facilitating the discovery of risk factors for disease at population, subpopulation, and individual levels, and by improving the effectiveness of interventions to help people achieve healthier behaviors in healthier environments. In this article, we describe new sources of big data in population health, explore their applications, and present two case studies illustrating how big data can be leveraged for prevention. We also discuss the many implementation obstacles that must be overcome before this vision can become a reality.

Secondhand smoke in combination with ambient air pollution exposure is associated with increasedx CpG methylation and decreased expression of IFN-γ in T effector cells and Foxp3 in T regulatory cells in children.

BACKGROUND: Secondhand smoke (SHS) and ambient air pollution (AAP) exposures have been associated with increased prevalence and severity of asthma and DNA modifications of immune cells. In the current study, we examined the association between SHS and AAP with DNA methylation and expression of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and forkhead box protein 3 (Foxp3) in T cell populations. METHODS: Subjects 7-18 years old were recruited from Fresno (high AAP; n = 62) and Stanford, CA (low AAP; n = 40) and divided into SHS-exposed (Fresno: n = 31, Stanford: n = 6) and non-SHS-exposed (nSHS; Fresno: n = 31, Stanford: n = 34) groups. T cells purified from peripheral blood were assessed for levels of DNA methylation and expression of IFN-γ (in effector T cells) or Foxp3 (in regulatory T cells). RESULTS: Analysis showed a significant increase in mean % CpG methylation of IFN-γ and Foxp3 associated with SHS exposure (IFN-γ: FSHS 62.10%, FnSHS 41.29%, p < 0.05; SSHS 46.67%, SnSHS 24.85%, p < 0.05; Foxp3: FSHS 74.60%, FnSHS 54.44%, p < 0.05; SSHS 62.40%, SnSHS 18.41%, p < 0.05) and a significant decrease in mean transcription levels of both genes (IFN-γ: FSHS 0.75, FnSHS 1.52, p < 0.05; SHS 2.25, nSHS 3.53, p < 0.05; Foxp3: FSHS 0.75, FnSHS 3.29, p < 0.05; SSHS 4.8, SnSHS 7.2, p < 0.05). AAP was also associated with hypermethylation (IFN-γ: FSHS vs. SSHS, p < 0.05; FnSHS vs. SnSHS, p < 0.05; Foxp3: FSHS vs. SSHS, p < 0.05; FnSHS vs. SnSHS, p < 0.05) and decreased transcription of both genes (IFN-γ: FSHS vs. SSHS, p < 0.05; FnSHS vs. SnSHS, p < 0.05; Foxp3: FSHS vs. SSHS, p < 0.05; FnSHS vs. SnSHS, p < 0.05). Average methylation between AAP- and SHS-only exposures was not significantly different (IFN-γ: p = 0.15; Foxp3: p = 0.27), nor was Foxp3 expression (p = 0.08); IFN-γ expression was significantly decreased in AAP-only subjects (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Exposures to SHS and AAP are associated with significant hypermethylation and decreased expression of IFN-γ in Teffs and Foxp3 in Tregs. Relative contributions of each exposure to DNA modification and asthma pathogenesis warrant further investigation.

Serum concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and growth among Russian boys.

BACKGROUND: Limited human data suggest an association of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) with adverse effects on children's growth. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the associations of OCPs with longitudinally assessed growth among peripubertal boys from a Russian cohort with high environmental OCP levels. METHODS: A cohort of 499 boys enrolled in the Russian Children's Study between 2003 and 2005 at 8-9 years of age were followed prospectively for 4 years. At study entry, 350 boys had serum OCPs measured. Physical examinations were conducted at entry and annually. The longitudinal associations of serum OCPs with annual measurements of body mass index (BMI), height, and height velocity were examined by multivariate mixed-effects regression models for repeated measures, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among the 350 boys with OCP measurements, median serum hexachlorobenzene (HCB), ß-hexachlorocyclohexane (ßHCH), and p,p´-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p´-DDE) concentrations were 159 ng/g lipid, 168 ng/g lipid, and 287 ng/g lipid, respectively. Age-adjusted BMI and height z-scores generally fell within the normal range per World Health Organization standards at entry and during follow-up. However, in adjusted models, boys with higher serum HCB, ßHCH, and p,p´-DDE had significantly lower mean [95% confidence interval (CI)] BMI z-scores, by -0.84 (-1.23, -0.46), -1.32 (-1.70, -0.95), and -1.37 (-1.75, -0.98), respectively, for the highest versus lowest quintile. In addition, the highest quintile of p,p´-DDE was associated with a significantly lower mean (95% CI) height z-score, by -0.69 (-1.00, -0.39) than that of the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Serum OCP concentrations measured at 8-9 years of age were associated with reduced growth, particularly reduced BMI, during the peripubertal period, which may affect attainment of optimal adult body mass and height.

Dioxin and polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in mother's serum and the timing of pubertal onset in sons.

BACKGROUND: Animal studies have demonstrated that timing of pubertal onset can be altered by prenatal exposure to dioxins or polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but studies of human populations have been quite limited. METHODS: We assessed the association between maternal serum concentrations of dioxins and PCBs and the sons' age of pubertal onset in a prospective cohort of 489 mother-son pairs from Chapaevsk, Russia, a town contaminated with these chemicals during past industrial activity. The boys were recruited at ages 8 to 9 years, and 4 years of annual follow-up data were included in the analysis. Serum samples were collected at enrollment from both mothers and sons for measurement of dioxin and PCB concentrations using high-resolution mass spectrometry. The sons' pubertal onset--defined as pubertal stage 2 or higher for genitalia (G) or pubic hair (P), or testicular volume >3 mL--was assessed annually by the same physician. RESULTS: In multivariate Cox models, elevated maternal serum PCBs were associated with earlier pubertal onset defined by stage G2 or higher (4th quartile hazard ratio = 1.7 [95% confidence interval = 1.1- 2.5]), but not for stage P2 or higher or for testicular volume >3 mL. Maternal serum concentrations of dioxin toxic equivalents were not consistently associated with the sons' pubertal onset, although a dose-related delay in pubertal onset (only for G2 or higher) was seen among boys who breast-fed for 6 months or more. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal PCB serum concentrations measured 8 or 9 years after sons' births--which may reflect sons' prenatal and early-life exposures--were associated with acceleration in some, but not all, measures of pubertal onset.

Temporal trends in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dioxins, furans, and PCBs among adult women living in Chapaevsk, Russia: a longitudinal study from 2000 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: The present study assessed the temporal trend in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls (PCBs) among residents of a Russian town where levels of these chemicals are elevated due to prior industrial activity. METHODS: Two serum samples were collected from eight adult women (in 2000 and 2009), and analyzed with gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry. RESULTS: The average total toxic equivalency (TEQ) decreased by 30% (from 36 to 25 pg/g lipid), and the average sum of PCB congeners decreased by 19% (from 291 to 211 ng/g lipid). Total TEQs decreased for seven of the eight women, and the sum of PCBs decreased for six of eight women. During this nine year period, larger decreases in serum TEQs and PCBs were found in women with greater increases in body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides suggestive evidence that average serum concentrations of dioxins, furans, and PCBs are decreasing over time among residents of this town.

Use of Specific IgE and Skin Prick Test to Determine Clinical Reaction Severity.

AIMS: To determine whether specific IgE and skin prick test correlate better in predicting reaction severity during a double-blinded placebo controlled food challenge (DBPCFC) for egg, milk, and multiple tree nut allergens. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, August 2009 and ongoing. METHODOLOGY: We examined the reaction severity of twenty-four subjects to nine possible food allergens: milk, egg, almond, cashew, hazelnut, peanut, sesame, pecan and walnut. Specific IgE and SPT were performed before each DBPCFC. DBPCFC results were classified into mild (1), moderate (2), or severe (3) reactions using a modified Bock's criteria. RESULTS: Twenty four subjects underwent a total of 80 DBPCFC. Eighty percent of all DBPCFCs resulted in a positive reaction. A majority, 71%, were classified as mild. No reactions occurred with a SPT of zero mm while three reactions occurred with a negative specific IgE. All reactions were reversible with medication. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that SPT and specific IgE levels are not associated with reaction severity (p<0.64 and 0.27, respectively). We also found that combining specific IgE and SPT improved specificity but did not help to achieve clinically useful sensitivity. For instance, an SPT > 5mm had a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 50%. Combining SPT > 5mm and IgE > 7 resulted in a reduced sensitivity of 64%. Unexpectedly, a history of anaphylaxis 70% (n=17) was not predictive of anaphylaxis on challenge 4% (n=2).

Serum dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls are associated with growth among Russian boys.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the associations of serum dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) with longitudinally assessed growth measurements among peripubertal Russian boys. METHODS: A total of 499 boys from Chapaevsk, Russia, aged 8 to 9 years were enrolled in the study from 2003 to 2005 and were followed prospectively for 3 years. Blood samples were collected and physical examinations were conducted at entry and repeated at annual study visits. Multivariate mixed-effects regression models for repeated measures were used to examine the associations of serum dioxins and PCBs with longitudinal measurements of BMI, height, and height velocity. RESULTS: Serum dioxin (total 2005 toxic equivalency [TEQ] median: 21.1 pg/g lipid) and PCBs (median sum of PCBs: 250 ng/g lipid) were measured in 468 boys. At study entry and during 3 years of follow-up, >50% of the boys had age-adjusted BMI and height z scores within 1 SD of World Health Organization-standardized mean values for age. Boys in the highest exposure quintile of the sum of dioxin and PCB concentrations and total TEQs had a significant decrease in mean BMI z scores of 0.67 for dioxins and TEQs and 1.04 for PCBs, compared with boys in the lowest exposure quintile. Comparison of the highest versus the lowest quintile revealed that higher serum PCB concentrations were associated with significantly lower height z scores (mean z-score decrease: 0.41) and height velocity (mean decrease: 0.19 cm/year) after 3 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposures to dioxins and PCBs are associated with reduced growth during the peripubertal period and may compromise adult body mass, stature, and health.

Predictors of serum dioxin, furan, and PCB concentrations among women from Chapaevsk, Russia.

Dioxins, furans, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent and bioaccumulative toxic chemicals that are ubiquitous in the environment. We assessed predictors of their serum concentrations among women living in a Russian town contaminated by past industrial activity. Blood samples from 446 mothers aged 23-52 years were collected between 2003-2005 as part of the Russian Children's Study. Serum dioxin, furan, and PCB concentrations were quantified using high-resolution gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Potential determinants of exposure were collected through interviews. Multivariate linear regression models were used to identify predictors of serum concentrations and toxic equivalencies (TEQs). The median total PCB concentrations and total TEQs were 260 ng/g lipid and 25 pg TEQ/g lipid, respectively. In multivariate analyses, both total PCB concentrations and total TEQs increased significantly with age, residential proximity to a local chemical plant, duration of local farming, and consumption of local beef. Both decreased with longer breastfeeding, recent increases in body mass index, and later blood draw date. These demographic and lifestyle predictors showed generally similar associations with the various measures of serum dioxins, furans, and PCBs.

Blood lead levels and delayed onset of puberty in a longitudinal study of Russian boys.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the association of blood lead levels (BLLs) with pubertal onset in a longitudinal cohort of Russian boys. METHODS: A total of 489 Russian boys were enrolled in 2003-2005, at 8 to 9 years of age, and were monitored annually through May 2008. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate the association of BLLs at enrollment with time to pubertal onset during follow-up monitoring. RESULTS: A total of 481 boys had BLLs, with a median of 3 microg/dL and 28% with values of > or =5 microg/dL. The proportion of pubertal boys increased with age, from 12% at age 8 to 83% at age 12 for testicular volume of >3 mL, from 22% to 90% for genitalia stage 2 or higher, and from 4% to 40% for pubic hair stage 2 or higher. After adjustment for potential confounders including BMI and height, boys with high BLLs (> or =5 microg/dL) had 24% to 31% reduced risk of pubertal onset, on the basis of testicular volume of >3 mL (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.73 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55-0.97]; P = .03), genitalia staging (HR: 0.76 [95% CI: 0.59-0.98]; P = .04), and pubic hair staging (HR: 0.69 [95% CI: 0.44-1.07]; P = .10), compared with those with lower BLLs. Pubertal onset occurred 6 to 8 months later, on average, for boys with high BLLs, compared with those with BLLs of <5 microg/dL. CONCLUSION: Higher BLLs were associated with later pubertal onset in this prospective study of peripubertal Russian boys.

Dioxins and cardiovascular disease mortality.

OBJECTIVE: In this systematic review we evaluated the evidence on the association between dioxin exposure and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in humans. DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION: We conducted a PubMed search in December 2007 and considered all English-language epidemiologic studies and their citations regarding dioxin exposure and CVD mortality. To focus on dioxins, we excluded cohorts that were either primarily exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls or from the leather and perfume industries, which include other cardiotoxic coexposures. DATA SYNTHESIS: We included results from 12 cohorts in the review. Ten cohorts were occupationally exposed. We divided analyses according to two well-recognized criteria of epidemiologic study quality: the accuracy of the exposure assessment, and whether the exposed population was compared with an internal or an external (e.g., general population) reference group. Analyses using internal comparisons with accurate exposure assessments are the highest quality because they minimize both exposure misclassification and confounding due to workers being healthier than the general population ("healthy worker effect"). The studies in the highest-quality group found consistent and significant dose-related increases in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and more modest associations with all-CVD mortality. Their primary limitation was a lack of adjustment for potential confounding by the major risk factors for CVD. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this systematic review suggest that dioxin exposure is associated with mortality from both IHD and all CVD, although more strongly with the former. However, it is not possible to determine the potential bias, if any, from confounding by other risk factors for CVD.