Polygenic Risk Score, Environmental Tobacco Smoke, and Risk of Lung Adenocarcinoma in Never-Smoking Women in Taiwan.

Importance: Estimating absolute risk of lung cancer for never-smoking individuals is important to inform lung cancer screening programs. Objectives: To integrate data on environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), a known lung cancer risk factor, with a polygenic risk score (PRS) that captures overall genetic susceptibility, to estimate the absolute risk of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) among never-smokers in Taiwan. Design, Setting, and Participants: The analyses were conducted in never-smoking women in the Taiwan Genetic Epidemiology Study of Lung Adenocarcinoma, a case-control study. Participants were recruited between September 17, 2002, and March 30, 2011. Data analysis was performed from January 17 to July 15, 2022. Exposures: A PRS was derived using 25 genetic variants that achieved genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) in a recent genome-wide association study, and ETS was defined as never exposed, exposed at home or at work, and exposed at home and at work. Main Outcomes and Measures: The Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator software was used to estimate the lifetime absolute risk of LUAD in never-smoking women aged 40 years over a projected 40-year span among the controls by using the relative risk estimates for the PRS and ETS exposures, as well as age-specific lung cancer incidence rates for never-smokers in Taiwan. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to assess an additive interaction between the PRS and ETS exposure. Results: Data were obtained on 1024 women with LUAD (mean [SD] age, 59.6 [11.4] years, 47.9% ever exposed to ETS at home, and 19.5% ever exposed to ETS at work) and 1024 controls (mean [SD] age, 58.9 [11.0] years, 37.0% ever exposed to ETS at home, and 14.3% ever exposed to ETS at work). The overall average lifetime 40-year absolute risk of LUAD estimated using PRS alone was 2.5% (range, 0.6%-10.3%) among women never exposed to ETS. When integrating both ETS and PRS data, the estimated absolute risk was 3.7% (range, 0.6%-14.5%) for women exposed to ETS at home or work and 5.3% (range, 1.2%-12.1%) for women exposed to ETS at home and work. A super-additive interaction between ETS and the PRS (P = 6.5 × 10-4 for interaction) was identified. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found differences in absolute risk of LUAD attributed to genetic susceptibility according to levels of ETS exposure in never-smoking women. Future studies are warranted to integrate these findings in expanded risk models for LUAD.

Recalibrating Risk Prediction Models by Synthesizing Data Sources: Adapting the Lung Cancer PLCO Model for Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Methods synthesizing multiple data sources without prospective datasets have been proposed for absolute risk model development. This study proposed methods for adapting risk models for another population without prospective cohorts, which would help alleviate the health disparities caused by advances in absolute risk models. To exemplify, we adapted the lung cancer risk model PLCOM2012, well studied in the west, for Taiwan. METHODS: Using Taiwanese multiple data sources, we formed an age-matched case-control study of ever-smokers (AMCCSE), estimated the number of ever-smoking lung cancer patients in 2011-2016 (NESLP2011), and synthesized a dataset resembling the population of cancer-free ever-smokers in 2010 regarding the PLCOM2012 risk factors (SPES2010). The AMCCSE was used to estimate the overall calibration slope, and the requirement that NESLP2011 equals the estimated total risk of individuals in SPES2010 was used to handle the calibration-in-the-large problem. RESULTS: The adapted model PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) had an AUC of 0.78 (0.75). They had high performance in calibration and clinical usefulness on subgroups of SPES2010 defined by age and smoking experience. Selecting the same number of individuals for low-dose computed tomography screening using PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) would have identified approximately 6% (8%) more lung cancers than the US Preventive Services Task Forces 2021 criteria. Smokers having 40+ pack-years had an average PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) risk of 3.8% (2.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The adapted PLCOT models had high predictive performance. IMPACT: The PLCOT models could be used to design lung cancer screening programs in Taiwan. The methods could be applicable to other cancer models.

Programmed Death Ligand 2 Gene Polymorphisms Are Associated With Lung Adenocarcinoma Risk in Female Never-Smokers.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer in never-smokers is a distinct disease associated with a different genomic landscape, pathogenesis, risk factors, and immune checkpoint inhibitor responses compared to those observed in smokers. This study aimed to identify novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of programmed death-1 (encoded by PDCD1) and its ligands, programmed death ligand 1 (CD274) and 2 (PDCD1LG2), associated with lung cancer risk in never-smoking women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During September 2002 and July 2012, we enrolled never-smoking female patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) (n=1153) and healthy women (n=1022) from six tertiary hospitals in Taiwan. SNP data were obtained and analyzed from the genome-wide association study dataset and through an imputation method. The expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis was performed in both tumor and non-tumor tissues for the correlation between genetic expression and identified SNPs. RESULTS: A total of 12 PDCD1LG2 SNPs related to LUAD risk were identified in never-smoking women, including rs2381282, rs4742103, rs4237162, rs4742104, rs12237624, rs78096119, rs6476988, rs7857315, rs10975178, rs7854413, rs56001683, and rs7858319. Among them, six tagged PDCD1LG2 SNPs rs2381282, rs4742103, rs4237162, rs4742104, rs78096119, and rs56001683 were significantly associated with LUAD risk. Specifically, two PDCD1LG2 SNPs, rs12237624 and rs78096119, were associated with previous pulmonary tuberculosis infection in relation to LUAD susceptibility. Through an eQTL assay, we found that rs2381282 (p < 0.001), rs12237624 (p = 0.019), and rs78096119 (p = 0.019) were associated with the expression levels of programed death ligand 2. CONCLUSIONS: Novel SNPs of programed death ligand 2 associated with lung adenocarcinoma risk were identified. Among them, two SNPs were associated with pulmonary tuberculosis infection in relation to lung adenocarcinoma susceptibility. These SNPs may help to stratify high-risk populations of never-smokers during lung cancer screening.