Patterns and trends in household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

This study examines patterns and trends in household food security in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 2010 to 2019. We use data from a household panel nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio- Demographic Surveillance System. Findings indicate that there have been improvements in household food security in this rural setting over the last decade. By polychoric principal component analysis, an aggregate food security index was constructed and we observed a small, yet important, proportion of households (7.8 %) that remained chronically food insecure. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. Findings reveal that the observed differences in household food security status are as a result of differences in socioeconomic status. We therefore recommend that focus must be placed on identifying economic opportunities and empowering the chronically food insecure households if universal household food security is to be attained in rural South Africa and beyond.

Time to Mainstream the Environment into Migration Theory?

As with all social processes, human migration is a dynamic process that requires regular theoretical reflection; this article offers such reflection as related to the role of the natural environment in contemporary migration research and theory. A growing body of evidence suggests that environmental contexts are increasingly shifting social and ecological realities in ways that are consequential to migration theory. We review some of this evidence, providing examples applicable to core migration theories, including neoclassical economic and migration systems perspectives, the "push-pull" framework, and the new economics of labor migration. We suggest that neglecting consideration of the natural environment may yield misspecified migration models that attribute migration too heavily to social and economic factors particularly in the context of contemporary climate change,. On the other hand, failure to consider migration theory in climate scenarios may lead to simplistic projections and understandings, as in the case of "climate refugees". We conclude that migration researchers have an obligation to accurately reflect the complexity of migration's drivers, including the environment, within migration scholarship especially in the context of global climate change.

Family, Community, and the Rural Social Mobility Advantage.

Children born into poverty in rural America achieve higher average income levels as adults than their urban peers. As economic opportunity tends to be more abundant in cities, this "rural advantage" in income mobility seems paradoxical. This article resolves this puzzle by applying multilevel analysis to new spatial measures of rurality and place-level data on intergenerational income mobility. We show that the high level of rural income mobility is principally driven by boys of rural-origin, who are more likely than their urban peers to grow up in communities with a predominance of two-parent households. The rural advantage is most pronounced among Whites and Hispanics, as well as those who were raised in the middle of the country. However, these dynamics are more nuanced for girls. In fact, girls from lower-income rural households exhibit a disadvantage in their personal income attainment, partly due to the persistence of traditional gender norms. These findings underscore the importance of communities with strong household and community supports in facilitating later-life income mobility, particularly for boys. They also challenge the emerging consensus that attributes the rural income mobility advantage to migration from poorer rural areas to wealthier towns and cities.

Nexus between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

Ongoing climate changes are likely to impact household food security in rural households that depend on rainfed subsistence agriculture. This paper investigates the relationship between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used a household panel data set nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, together with rainfall and temperature data for the summer periods 2006-07 to 2018-19 from three weather stations that surround the study area. We quantified the variability of rainfall using coefficient of variation and the standardized rainfall anomaly index, while temperature variability was reflected by the standardised temperature anomaly. In addition, the Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect temporal trends in rainfall and temperature. Longitudinal models accounting for socioeconomic and climate factors were used to estimate the relationship between weather and climate. The results reveal significant impact on food security from high inter-annual rainfall variability through fluctuations in food consumption, dietary diversity, and the experience of hunger. This study offers significant insights on how dietary diversity, food availability and overall food security are positively associated with greater average rainfall through subsistence agriculture as a livelihood strategy. These insights have important implications by suggesting seasonal forecasts to predict periods of potential food insecurity in local communities and can guide government policy and interventions to lessen food insecurity in rural areas.

Rural Population Health and Aging: Introduction to the Special Issue.

This special issue of the Journal of Rural Social Sciences (JRSS) focuses on rural population health and aging. It showcases the work of scholars from several backgrounds and social science disciplines to advance knowledge in a critical field of investigation. Assembled through an open call for submissions coordinated through the National Institute on Aging (NIA) funded Interdisciplinary Network on Rural Population Health and Aging (INRPHA), the collection of articles helps inform a more nuanced understanding of the factors associated with rural places, which often have different health outcomes and aging patterns than their urban counterparts. The authors achieve this through application of innovative analytical strategies used with a combination of data sources. This introductory essay provides background and an overview of the four articles, followed by discussion of future opportunities to advance an agenda for rural population health and aging research.

Operationalizing and empirically identifying populations trapped in place by climate and environmental stressors in Mexico.

In this paper, we propose a guiding operational definition and corresponding set of empirical steps to identify and study trapped populations. Trapped populations consist of actors who are highly vulnerable to climate and environmental stressors given limited resources (economic, social, etc.), which limit their ability to adapt to these stressors in-situ or by choosing to migrate. Informed by both insights and omissions from prior theoretical and empirical research, we propose a guiding operational definition of trapped populations that appreciates and incorporates actors' limited resources and their migration intentions against the backdrop of climate and environmental stressors. As it should, our operational definition points to a specific set of operations, or steps, which can be followed to empirically identify and study trapped populations. Using data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), we detail the steps permitting both retrospective and prospective identification of trapped populations. We conclude by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of our operational definition and empirical approach, as well as possible extensions.

Exploring Rural-Urban Differences in Polygenic Associations for Health among Older Adults in the United States.

This paper contributes to research on health disparities among rural and urban residents by considering differences in the magnitude of genetic associations for physical health, mental health, and health behaviors across the two settings. Previous research has shown reduced genetic associations in rural compared to urban settings but none have utilized current genome-wide polygenic scores and none have focused on older adults. Using a sample of 14,994 adults from the 1992 to 2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study our results suggest genetic associations for BMI (p<.018) and heart conditions (p < .023) are significantly reduced in rural compared to urban settings and we find weak evidence in support of this association for depression (p. < .065) and no evidence for smoking (p < 461). In sum, the weaker genetic associations in rural areas highlights the centrality of the social, economic, and built environment as a determinant of disparities.

Rural Population Health and Aging: Toward a Multilevel and Multidimensional Research Agenda for the 2020s.

The unique health and aging challenges of rural populations often go unnoticed. In fact, the rural United States is home to disproportionate shares of older and sicker people, there are large and growing rural-urban and within-rural mortality disparities, many rural communities are in population decline, and rural racial/ethnic diversity is increasing.Yet rural communities are not monolithic, and although some rural places are characterized by declining health, others have seen large improvements in population health. We draw on these realities to call for new research in five areas.First, research is needed to better describe health disparities between rural and urban areas and, because rural places are not monolithic, across rural America. Second, research is needed on how trends in rural population health and aging are affecting rural communities. Third, research is needed on the ways in which economic well-being and livelihood strategies interact with rural health and aging. Fourth, we need to better understand the health implications of the physical and social isolation characterizing many rural communities. Finally, we argue for new research on the implications of local natural environments and climate change for rural population health and aging.

Climate Migration at the Height and End of the Great Mexican Emigration Era.

Previous research has linked increasing climate-change-related variability to Mexico-US migration, but only under particular climatic/social conditions and periods of high irregular migration. Using the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, we examine this environment-migration nexus across a broader set of socioecological contexts and during periods of both increasing (1995-1999) and declining (2005-2009) migration. Consistent with the notion that climate can "trap" populations in place, we find that frequent/severe bouts of hot or dry conditions are associated with lower US-bound migration from most of rural Mexico. However, we do find higher climate outmigration during episodes hot and dry climate, or out of places with lower vulnerability. Our comparisons across periods suggest that climate migration is affected by conditions in the U.S. in a similar or slightly weaker manner as other forms of migration are. Altogether, our findings suggest that rural Mexico is unlikely to push large numbers of international "climate refugees" and that climate migration is indeed sensitive to conditions in sending and destination areas.

Internal and International Mobility as Adaptation to Climatic Variability in Contemporary Mexico: Evidence from the Integration of Census and Satellite Data.

Migration provides a strategy for rural Mexican households to cope with, or adapt to, weather events and climatic variability. Yet prior studies on "environmental migration" in this context have not examined the differences between choices of internal (domestic) or international movement. In addition, much of the prior work relied on very coarse spatial scales to operationalize the environmental variables such as rainfall patterns. To overcome these limitations, we use fine-grain rainfall estimates derived from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The rainfall estimates are combined with Population and Agricultural Census information to examine associations between environmental changes and municipal rates of internal and international migration 2005-2010. Our findings suggest that municipal-level rainfall deficits relative to historical levels are an important predictor of both international and internal migration, especially in areas dependent on seasonal rainfall for crop productivity. Although our findings do not contradict results of prior studies using coarse spatial resolution, they offer clearer results and a more spatially nuanced examination of migration as related to social and environmental vulnerability and thus higher degrees of confidence.

Native Americans: Where in Environmental Justice Research?

While the last two decades have seen important theoretical, empirical, and policy advancements in environmental justice generally, much remains to be done regarding Native Americans. Unique political and cultural dynamics shape the study and pursuit of environmental justice (EJ) in Native American communities. This review summarizes Native American EJ issues based on a cross-disciplinary search of over 60 publications. In so doing, we discuss the unique nature of Native American EJ in terms of conducting research and working toward reducing the continuation of historical trauma associated with environmental ills, the types of strategies used in Native American EJ research, and issues of Native American climate justice. We conclude with discussion of remaining knowledge gaps and future research needs.

Swimming and Gendered Vulnerabilities: Evidence from the Northern and Central Philippines.

Men and women's vulnerability to disasters is different and often related, in part, to cultural norms that influence gendered behaviors and abilities. In this study we focus on gender differences in swimming abilities, which, in the case of tsunamis have resulted in far greater female mortality rates. We present results on swimming ability by gender for 940 residents of coastal rural communities in the northern and central Philippines. We also examine cross-generational transmission of swimming abilities to shed light on future vulnerability. Results reveal men are far more likely than women to swim and, importantly, parents who can swim are more likely to have children who can swim. In this way, differences in swimming ability among today's adults may perpetuate vulnerabilities within future generations.

Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico.

Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move.

Amplification or suppression: Social networks and the climate change-migration association in rural Mexico.

Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks - the ties connecting an origin and destination - may operate as "migration corridors" with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying, social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.