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BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram to predict the survival of heat stroke (HS) based on risk factors. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational multicenter cohort study. We analyzed patients diagnosed with HS, who were treated between May 1 and September 30, 2018 at 15 tertiary hospitals from 11 cities in Northern China. RESULTS: Among the 175 patients, 32 patients (18.29%) died before hospital discharge. After the univariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg, maximum heart rate, lab results on day 1 (white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine), and Glasgow admission prediction score were included in multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox regression showed that invasive ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), and Glasgow admission prediction score were independent risk factors for HS. The nomogram was established for predicting 7-d and 14-d survival in the training cohort. The nomogram exhibited a concordance index (C-index) of 0.880 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.831-0.930) by bootstrapping validation (B=1,000). Furthermore, the nomogram performed better when predicting 14-d survival, compared to 7-d survival. The prognostic index cut-off value was set at 2.085, according to the operating characteristic curve for overall survival prediction. The model showed good calibration ability in the internal and external validation datasets. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram, integrated with prognostic factors, was proposed; it was highly predictive of the survival in HS patients.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate NF-kappaB activity and the expression of phosphorylated p38 MAPK protein in lung tissue of acute paraquat poisoned rats and the effect of MT. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-eight Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were randomly divided into three experimental groups: poisoned group, MT group and control group. On the 1st, the 3rd, the 7th and the 14th day after exposure, levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) in serum were detected, NF-kappaB activity in the lung tissues was assessed by electrophoresis mobility shift assay (EMSA), the expression of the phosphorylated p38 MAPK was evaluated by Western blot method, the lung pathological changes of rats were observed. RESULTS: The level of malondialdehyde (MDA) in serum increased significantly in poisoned group on the 1st day (4.45 +/- 1.23), the 3rd day (3.77 +/- 1.12) and the 7th day (2.84 +/- 0.96) nmol/ml compared with that in control group (1.36 +/- 0.52) nmol/ml (P < 0.01). There was a significant decrease in MT group on the 1st day (2.68 +/- 0.85), the 3rd day (1.97 +/- 0.74) and the 7th day (1.53 +/- 0.62) nmol/ml compared with poisoned group (P < 0.05). The expression of the phosphorylated p38 MAPK and NF-kappaB activity in lung tissue of poisoned group significantly increased compared with control group (P < 0.01). There was a significant decrease in NF-kappaB activity and expression of the phosphorylated p38 MAPK in the lung tissues in MT group compared with poisoned group (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: NF-kappaB and p38 MAPK could play an important role in lung injury of poisoned rats. MT may inhibit the expression of NF-kappaB and phosphorylated p38 MAPK, and therefore might have the therapeutical effect on acute paraquat poisoning.
