Hydrodynamics and phosphorus loading in an urbanized river channel influences response to future managed change: Insights from advection-dispersion modelling.

There is a need to understand what makes certain targeted measures for in-river phosphorus load reduction more effective than others. Therefore, this paper investigates multiple development scenarios in a small lowland polluted river draining an urban area (The Cut, Bracknell, UK), using an advection-dispersion model (ADModel-P). A comparative analysis is presented whereby changes in concentrations and fluxes of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and organic phosphorus (OP) have been attributed to specific transformations (mineralization, sedimentation, resuspension, adsorption-desorption, and algal uptake) and correlated to controlling factors. Under present day conditions the river stretch is a net source of SRP (10.4 % increase in mean concentration) implying a release of previously accumulated material. Scenarios with the greatest impact are those based on managed reduction of phosphorus load in sources (e.g., 20 % increase in afforestation causes an in-river SRP and OP reduction of 1.3 % to 12.6 %) followed by scenarios involving changes in water temperature (e.g., 1 °C decrease leads to in-river SRP reduction around 3.1 %). Measures involving increased river residence time show the lowest effects (e.g., 16 % decrease in velocity results in under 0.02 % in-river SRP and OP reduction). For better understanding downstream persistence of phosphorus pollution and the effectiveness of mitigation measures the research demonstrates the importance of establishing when and where reaches are net adsorbers or desorbers, and whether sedimentation or resuspension is important.