Phenology-adjusted dynamic curve number for improved hydrologic modeling.

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN, or CN) is a widely used method to estimate runoff from rainfall events. It has been adapted to many parts of the world with different land uses, land cover types, and climatic conditions and successfully applied to situations ranging from simple runoff calculations and land use change assessment to comprehensive hydrologic/water quality simulations. However, the CN method lacks the ability to incorporate seasonal variations in vegetated surface conditions, and unnoticed landuse/landcover (LULC) change that shape infiltration and storm runoff. Plant phenology is a main determinant of changes in hydrologic processes and water balances across seasons through its influence on surface roughness and evapotranspiration. This study used regression analysis to develop a dynamic CN (CNNDVI) based on seasonal variations in the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor intra-annual plant phenological development. A time series of 16-day MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1 Collection 5) images were used to monitor vegetation development and provide NDVI data necessary for CNNDVI model calibration and validation. Twelve years of rainfall and runoff data (2001-2012) from four small watersheds located in the Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas were used to develop, calibrate, and validate the method. Results showed CNNDVI performed significantly better in predicting runoff with calibrated CNNDVI runoff increasing by approximately 0.74 for every unit increase in observed runoff compared to 0.46 for SCS-CN runoff and was more highly correlated to observed runoff (r = 0.78 vs. r = 0.38). In addition, CNNDVI runoff had better NSE (0.53) and PBIAS (4.22) compared to the SCS-CN runoff (-0.87 and -94.86 respectively). In the validated model, CNNDVI runoff increased by approximately 0.96 for every unit of observed runoff, while SCS-CN runoff increased by 0.49. Validated runoff was also better correlated to observed runoff than SCS-CN runoff (r = 0.52 vs. r = 0.33). These findings suggest that the CNNDVI can yield improved estimates of surface runoff from precipitation events, leading to more informed water and land management decisions.

Safety and efficacy of long-term nasobiliary drainage to treat intractable pruritus in cholestatic liver disease.

INTRODUCTION: Cholestasis related pruritus, secondary to intrahepatic and/or extrahepatic biliary obstruction is a common manifestation in chronic liver disease. Pruritus is difficult to treat, and results are often suboptimal. A stepwise medical approach is usually employed, followed by a trial molecular adsorbents recirculation system in medication resistant cases. Pruritus resulting in reduced quality of life is a variant syndrome eligible for liver transplantation in the setting of preserved synthetic function. AIM: This case series describes the use of long-term (LT) nasobiliary drainage (NBD) in three patients with intractable pruritus. This case series tests the hypothesis that LT-NBD could be successfully used to alleviate cholestasis related pruritus, and prevent or delay the need for liver transplantation. METHOD: LT-NBD was carried out in three female patients (mean age 43 years) with intractable pruritus secondary to primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) (n=2), and benign recurrent intrahepatic cholestasis (n=1). NBD was carried out through the endoscopic placement of a 6 French Cook Medical nasobiliary catheter into the common bile duct. RESULTS: Symptomatic relief of pruritus was described by all three cases within 24 h of NBD placement. LT-NBD was stopped in the patient with benign recurrent intrahepatic cholestasis after 8 weeks due to complete resolution of pruritus. In one patient with PBC, LT-NBD was undertaken over 12 months, with complete resolution of pruritus. In the second patient with PBC, LT-NBD was carried out over 14 months, with complete resolution of pruritus. DISCUSSION: This case series supports the efficacy of LT-NBD in the treatment of intractable pruritus. We propose that NBD offers an accessible modality for the treatment of intractable pruritus in liver disease, potentially avoiding the need for liver transplantation.

Monitoring vegetation change and dynamics on U.S. Army training lands using satellite image time series analysis.

Given the significant land holdings of the U.S. Department of Defense, and the importance of those lands to support a variety of inherently damaging activities, application of sound natural resource conservation principles and proactive monitoring practices are necessary to manage military training lands in a sustainable manner. This study explores a method for, and the utility of, analyzing vegetation condition and trends as sustainability indicators for use by military commanders and land managers, at both the national and local levels, in identifying when and where vegetation-related environmental impacts might exist. The BFAST time series decomposition method was applied to a ten-year MODIS NDVI time series dataset for the Fort Riley military installation and Konza Prairie Biological Station (KPBS) in northeastern Kansas. Imagery selected for time-series analysis were 16-day MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1 Collection 5) composites capable of characterizing vegetation change induced by human activities and climate variability. Three indicators related to gradual interannual or abrupt intraannual vegetation change for each pixel were calculated from the trend component resulting from the BFAST decomposition. Assessment of gradual interannual NDVI trends showed the majority of Fort Riley experienced browning between 2001 and 2010. This result is supported by validation using high spatial resolution imagery. The observed versus expected frequency of linear trends detected at Fort Riley and KPBS were significantly different and suggest a causal link between military training activities and/or land management practices. While both sites were similar with regards to overall disturbance frequency and the relative spatial extents of monotonic or interrupted trends, vegetation trajectories after disturbance were significantly different. This suggests that the type and magnitude of disturbances characteristic of each location result in distinct post-disturbance vegetation responses. Using a remotely-sensed vegetation index time series with BFAST and the indicators outlined here provides a consistent and relatively rapid assessment of military training lands with applicability outside of grassland biomes. Characterizing overall trends and disturbance responses of vegetation can promote sustainable use of military lands and assist land managers in targeting specific areas for various rehabilitation activities.

Environmental, climatic, and residential neighborhood determinants of feline tularemia.

BACKGROUND: Tularemia, caused by a Gram-negative bacterium Francisella tularensis, is an occasional disease of cats in the midwestern United States and a public health concern due to its zoonotic potential. Different environmental, climatic, and pet-owner's housing and socioeconomic conditions were evaluated as potential risk factors for feline tularemia using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in a retrospective case-control study. METHODS: The study included 46 cases identified as positive for tularemia based upon positive immunohistochemistry, isolation of F. tularensis using bacterial culture, and 4-fold or greater change in serum antibody titer for F. tularensis. Cats with a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but no lesions characteristic of tularemia and/or negative immunohistochemistry, no isolation of bacteria in bacterial culture, and less than 4-fold raise in serum antibody titer for F. tularensis were treated as controls (n=93). Candidate geospatial variables from multiple thematic sources were analyzed for association with case status. Variables from National Land Cover Dataset, Soil Survey Geographic Database, US Census Bureau, and Daymet were extracted surrounding geocoded case-control household locations. Univariable screening of candidate variables followed by stepwise multivariable logistic modeling and odds ratios were used to identify strengths of variable associations and risk factors. RESULTS: Living in a residence located in newly urbanized/suburban areas, residences surrounded by areas dominated by grassland vegetation, and mean vapor pressure conditions recorded during the 8(th) week prior to case arrival at the hospital are significant risk factors for feline tularemia. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention strategies such as acaricide applications in residential backyards during spring and early summer periods and any behavior modifications suitable for cats that will prevent them from contracting infection from ticks or dead animals are necessary. Mean vapor pressure conditions recorded during the 8(th) week prior to case arrival at a diagnostic facility is a predictor for feline tularemia.

Evaluations of hydrologic risk factors for canine leptospirosis: 94 cases (2002-2009).

Hydrologic and soil-hydrologic variables were evaluated retrospectively as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis in Kansas and Nebraska using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample included 94 positive and 185 negative dogs for leptospirosis predominantly based on PCR test for leptospires in urine. Hydrologic variables for the region were derived from National Hydrographic Dataset, National Flood Hazard Layer, National Wetlands Inventory; and soil-hydrologic variables from Soil Survey Geographic Database around geocoded addresses of case/control locations. Multivariable logistic models were used to determine association between hydrologic and soil-hydrologic variables and test status. Distance from water features (OR=0.82; 95% CI=0.79, 0.86), hydrologic density (OR=2.80; 95% CI=1.58, 4.96) and frequently flooded areas (OR=4.05; 95% CI=2.17, 7.55) within 2500 m surrounding case/control locations were significant risk factors for canine leptospirosis. Vaccination for dogs that live closer to water features, landscapes dominated by water features and frequent floods should be considered for leptospirosis prevention.

Identifying highly connected counties compensates for resource limitations when evaluating national spread of an invasive pathogen.

Surveying invasive species can be highly resource intensive, yet near-real-time evaluations of invasion progress are important resources for management planning. In the case of the soybean rust invasion of the United States, a linked monitoring, prediction, and communication network saved U.S. soybean growers approximately $200 M/yr. Modeling of future movement of the pathogen (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was based on data about current disease locations from an extensive network of sentinel plots. We developed a dynamic network model for U.S. soybean rust epidemics, with counties as nodes and link weights a function of host hectarage and wind speed and direction. We used the network model to compare four strategies for selecting an optimal subset of sentinel plots, listed here in order of increasing performance: random selection, zonal selection (based on more heavily weighting regions nearer the south, where the pathogen overwinters), frequency-based selection (based on how frequently the county had been infected in the past), and frequency-based selection weighted by the node strength of the sentinel plot in the network model. When dynamic network properties such as node strength are characterized for invasive species, this information can be used to reduce the resources necessary to survey and predict invasion progress.

Neighborhood-level socioeconomic and urban land use risk factors of canine leptospirosis: 94 cases (2002-2009).

Associations of housing, population, and agriculture census variables, and presence near public places were retrospectively evaluated as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample population included 94 dogs positive for leptospirosis based on a positive polymerase chain reaction test for leptospires on urine, isolation of leptospires on urine culture, a single reciprocal serum titer of 12,800 or greater, or a four-fold rise in reciprocal serum titers over a 2-4 week period; and 185 dogs negative for leptospirosis based on a negative polymerase chain reaction test and reciprocal serum titers less than 400. Multivariable logistic regressions revealed different risk factors among different census units; however, houses lacking complete plumbing facilities [OR=2.80, 95% C.I.=1.82, 4.32 (census unit, block group); OR=1.36, 95% C.I.=1.28, 1.45 (census tract); OR=3.02, 95% C.I.=2.60, 3.52 (county)]; and poverty status by age (18-64) [OR=2.04, 95% C.I.=1.74, 2.39 (block group); OR=1.53, 95% C.I.=1.41, 1.67 (census tract); and OR=1.62, 95% C.I.=1.50, 1.76 (county)] were consistent risk factors for all census units. Living within 2500 m of a university/college and parks/forests were also significantly associated with leptospirosis status in dogs. Dogs that live under these circumstances are at higher risk for leptospirosis and pet owners should consider vaccination.

The development of comprehension and reading-related skills in children learning English as an additional language and their monolingual, English-speaking peers.

BACKGROUND: A significant number of pupils in UK schools learn English as an additional language (EAL). Relative differences between the educational attainment of this group and monolingual, English-speaking pupils call for an exploration of the literacy needs of EAL learners. AIMS: This study explores the developmental progression of reading and listening comprehension skills and a range of reading-related skills in EAL learners, whose first language is of South Asian origin, and their monolingual peers. SAMPLE: Participants were 39 children learning EAL and 39 monolingual, English-speaking children who were all in school Year 3 at the start of the study. METHOD: Children completed standardized measures of comprehension, vocabulary, reading accuracy, and reading fluency in school Year 3 and again in Year 4. RESULTS: The results suggest that, although children learning EAL often demonstrate fast and accurate reading accuracy skills, lower levels of vocabulary knowledge place significant constraints on EAL learners' comprehension of spoken and written texts. CONCLUSIONS: Reciprocal relationships between vocabulary and comprehension may lead to increasing gaps in reading comprehension between monolingual and EAL pupils over time. It is proposed that support for the development of vocabulary skills in children learning EAL is needed in early years' classrooms.

Long-term histological follow-up of people with coeliac disease in a UK teaching hospital.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is a relatively common condition which is usually managed by placing patients on a gluten free diet. Follow up biopsies to confirm histological recovery are controversial with a considerable variation in practice observed. AIM: To determine the length of time to histopathological recovery in a group of coeliac disease patients and its associations with clinicopathological data. DESIGN AND METHODS: All patients attending a specialist coeliac disease clinic prior to March 2009 were entered onto a database which recorded various clinicopathological data. The histopathology reports for all duodenal biopsies were reviewed and each biopsy was given a histopathological disease score based on a modified Marsh grade. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-four patients underwent index and at least one subsequent biopsy. Two-hundred and twenty-seven (80%) showed histopathological improvement and 100 (35%) returned to normal (median recovery time 1.9 years, inter-quartile range 1.0-4.8 years). Patients with less severe disease at diagnosis were more likely to show a better response (r = 0.281, P < 0.0001). Older patients demonstrated a shorter time to histopathological recovery (r = -0.200, P = 0.001). Compliance with a gluten free diet was correlated with the best biopsy score (r = -0.134, P = 0.040) and degree of histological recovery (r = 0.161, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: Current guidelines for the timing of repeat biopsy after commencing a gluten free diet are unclear, although 4-6 months has been recommended. This study shows that time to histological recovery is longer than traditionally thought and may need to take into account the patient's age at diagnosis, the initial disease score and the level of compliance with a gluten free diet.

A habitat-based model for the spread of hantavirus between reservoir and spillover species.

New habitat-based models for spread of hantavirus are developed which account for interspecies interaction. Existing habitat-based models do not consider interspecies pathogen transmission, a primary route for emergence of new infectious diseases and reservoirs in wildlife and man. The modeling of interspecies transmission has the potential to provide more accurate predictions of disease persistence and emergence dynamics. The new models are motivated by our recent work on hantavirus in rodent communities in Paraguay. Our Paraguayan data illustrate the spatial and temporal overlaps among rodent species, one of which is the reservoir species for Jabora virus and others which are spillover species. Disease transmission occurs when their habitats overlap. Two mathematical models, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, are developed for spread of hantavirus between a reservoir and a spillover species. Analysis of a special case of the ODE model provides an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number, R(0), such that if R(0)<1, then the pathogen does not persist in either population but if R(0)>1, pathogen outbreaks or persistence may occur. Numerical simulations of the CTMC model display sporadic disease incidence, a new behavior of our habitat-based model, not present in other models, but which is a prominent feature of the seroprevalence data from Paraguay. Environmental changes that result in greater habitat overlap result in more encounters among various species that may lead to pathogen outbreaks and pathogen establishment in a new host.

A new large-area 2pi proportional counting system at NIST.

A new large-area gas flow multi-wire proportional counter has been developed to replace the large-area counting system that is currently in use at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and several Department of Defense counting facilities for calibrating large-area alpha and beta sources. The current systems are over 20 years old and part replacement is very difficult. The new systems have been built using specifications that will improve on the current systems and allow collecting data at pressures up to 0.2MPa. The ability to operate at higher pressures will increase the beta efficiency of the counter and lead to improved precision in the final measured results. Comparison of the results from the old and new systems is presented for both alpha and beta sources.

High pressure differential scanning calorimetry investigations on the pressure dependence of the melting of paracetamol Polymorphs I and II.

A high pressure differential scanning calorimeter (HP-DSC) has been used to investigate the pressure dependence of the melting of the monoclinic (Form I) and orthorhombic (Form II) polymorphs of paracetamol (acetaminophen). DSC scans obtained at ambient pressure show that the stable monoclinic form melts at 442 K while the metastable orthorhombic form melts at 430 K. HP-DSC scans obtained for pressures up to about 450 MPa show that the melting temperatures of both Forms I and II increase with increasing pressure, but the latter more rapidly than the former. This results in a cross-over at about 250 MPa, where the two forms have approximately the same melting temperature, while at higher pressures Form II becomes the more stable phase. Although no solid-solid transitions have been observed, the coordinates of the I-II-liquid triple point have been found experimentally (p = 258.7 MPa and T = 489.6 K) for the first time, and confirm those predicted by Espeau et al. from a topological p-T diagram based on theoretical arguments and experimental data at ambient pressure.

Influence of population density on antibiotic resistance.

Antibiotic consumption and population density as a measure of crowding in the community were related to the prevalence of antibiotic resistance of three cities in three different countries: St Johns in Newfoundland (Canada), Athens in Greece and Groningen in The Netherlands. Antibiotic consumption was expressed in DDD (defined daily dose), as DID (DDD/1000 inhabitants/day) and as DSD (DDD/km(2)). The prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli and enterococci was determined in faecal samples of healthy volunteers. In both Newfoundland (28 DID) and Greece (29 DID) the overall consumption of antibiotics was more than three times higher compared with that of The Netherlands (9 DID). The lowest prevalence of resistant E. coli against the majority of antibiotics tested was found for the samples from Newfoundland and was significant (P < 0.05) for cefazolin, oxytetracycline and trimethoprim. A poor correlation between the number of DID and the prevalence of resistance was observed [the Pearson correlation coefficient (Pcc) ranged between -0.93 and 0.87]. However, when population density was taken into consideration and antibiotic consumption was expressed in DSD, a strong correlation was observed (and Pcc ranged between 0.86 and 1.00). This study suggests that population density is an important factor in the development of antibiotic resistance and warrants special attention as a factor in resistance epidemiology.

Role of diagnostic labeling in antibiotic prescription.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between diagnostic labeling of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and antibiotic prescription rates in family practice. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of outpatient chart review supplemented by interviews with physicians. Charts of patients attending 73 general practitioners were reviewed between October 1997 and February 1998. Two days of practice were evaluated per physician. SETTING: Urban family practices in greater St John's, Nfld. PARTICIPANTS: Of 96 family physicians contacted, 73 (76%) agreed to participate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of diagnoses and antibiotic prescriptions for acute infections. Physicians were divided into "low prescribers" and "high prescribers" based on overall rates of prescription to patients with infections. Low prescribers were compared with high prescribers with respect to physician characteristics, patient characteristics, and diagnoses assigned. RESULTS: Of all patients seen, 22% were seen for acute infections; RTIs accounted for 76% of diagnoses. Low prescribers and high prescribers were of similar ages and saw similar numbers of patients of similar ages with very similar presenting complaints. Both groups diagnosed urinary tract and skin and soft-tissue infections at similar rates, but differed markedly in their rates of diagnoses of RTIs. High prescribers diagnosed bacterial RTIs in 65.4% (147/225) of their patients; low prescribers diagnosed bacterial RTIs in 31.0% (66/213 (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Family doctors frequently prescribe antibiotics. The difference in rates of prescription between high prescribers and low prescribers is largely explained by assignment of diagnoses of RTIs.

Heme oxygenase activity in term human placenta.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a novel gaseous chemical messenger, formed during heme oxygenase (HO)-catalysed oxidation of heme. CO is proposed to play a key role(s) in cell function in many organ systems, including vasodilator action in the cardiovascular system. Recently, it has been demonstrated that there is expression of HO protein in the human placenta and this appears to have a regulatory role in placental perfusion. The objective of the present study was to determine HO enzymatic activity in vitro in five different regions of term human placenta. HO activity was determined in the microsomal fraction of tissue homogenate by measuring the rate of formation of CO from heme, using a gas-chromatographic method. HO activity, expressed as nmol CO formed/g tissue wet weight/h, was higher (P< 0.05) in the chorionic plate, chorionic villi, basal plate and chorio-decidua compared with the amnion. The finding that HO enzymatic activity is present in different regions of term human placenta supports the concept that the heme-CO (HO) pathway plays a complementary role with the L -arginine-nitric oxide (nitric oxide synthase) pathway in the regulation of placental haemodynamics.

Method of physician remuneration and rates of antibiotic prescription.

BACKGROUND: Rates of antibiotic prescription in Canada far exceed generally accepted rates of bacterial infection, which led the authors to postulate that rates of antibiotic prescription depend to some extent on factors unrelated to medical indication. The associations between antibiotic prescription rates and physician characteristics, in particular, method of remuneration and patient volume, were explored. METHODS: The authors evaluated all 153,047 antibiotic prescriptions generated by 476 Newfoundland general practitioners and paid for by the Newfoundland Drug Plan over the 1-year period ending Aug. 31 1996, and calculated rates of antibiotic prescription. Linear and logistic regression models controlling for several physician characteristics, specifically age, place of education (Canada or elsewhere), location of practice (urban or rural) and proportion of elderly patients seen, were used to analyse rates of antibiotic prescription. RESULTS: Fee-for-service payment (rather than salary) and greater volume of patients were strongly associated with higher antibiotic prescription rates. Fee-for-service physicians were much more likely than their salaried counterparts to prescribe at rates above the median value of 1.51 antibiotic prescriptions per unique patient per year. The association between rate of antibiotic prescription and patient volume (as measured by number of unique patients prescribed to) was evident for all physicians. However, the association was much stronger for fee-for-service physicians. Physicians with higher patient volumes prescribed antibiotics at higher rates. INTERPRETATION: In this study factors other than medical indication, in particular method of physician remuneration and patient volume, played a major role in determining antibiotic prescribing practices.

An International Marine-Atmospheric 222Rn Measurement Intercomparison in Bermuda Part I: NIST Calibration and Methodology for Standardized Sample Additions.

As part of an international 222Rn measurement intercomparison conducted at Bermuda in October 1991, NIST provided standardized sample additions of known, but undisclosed ("blind") 222Rn concentrations that could be related to U.S. national standards. The standardized sample additions were obtained with a calibrated 226Ra source and a specially-designed manifold used to obtain well-known dilution factors from simultaneous flow-rate measurements. The additions were introduced over sampling periods of several hours (typically 4 h) into a common streamline on a sampling tower used by the participating laboratories for their measurements. The standardized 222Rn activity concentrations for the intercomparison ranged from approximately 2.5 Bq · m-3 to 35 Bq · m-3 (of which the lower end of this range approached concentration levels for ambient Bermudian air) and had overall uncertainties, approximating a 3 standard deviation uncertainty interval, of about 6 % to 13 %. This paper describes the calibration and methodology for the standardized sample additions.