Tobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: As access to effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved globally, tobacco-related illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory conditions, account for a growing proportion of deaths among people with HIV (PWH). We estimated the impact of tobacco smoking and smoking cessation on life expectancy among PWH in South Africa. METHODS: In a microsimulation model, we simulated 18 cohorts of PWH with virologic suppression, each homogenous by sex, initial age (35y/45y/55y) and smoking status (current/former/never). Input parameters were from data sources published between 2008 and 2022. We used South African data to estimate age-stratified mortality hazard ratios: 1.2-2.3 (females)/1.1-1.9 (males) for people with current versus never smoking status; and 1.0-1.3 (females)/1.0-1.5 (males) for people with former versus never smoking status, depending on age at cessation. We assumed smoking status remains unchanged during the simulation; people who formerly smoked quit at model start. Simulated PWH face a monthly probability of disengagement from care and virologic non-suppression. In sensitivity analysis, we varied smoking-associated and HIV-associated mortality risks. Additionally, we estimated the total life-years gained if a proportion of all virologically suppressed PWH stopped smoking. RESULTS: Forty-five-year-old females/males with HIV with virologic suppression who smoke lose 5.3/3.7 life-years compared to PWH who never smoke. Smoking cessation at age 45y adds 3.4/2.4 life-years. Simulated PWH who continue smoking lose more life-years from smoking than from HIV (females, 5.3 vs. 3.0 life-years; males, 3.7 vs. 2.6 life-years). The impact of smoking and smoking cessation increase as smoking-associated mortality risks increase and HIV-associated mortality risks, including disengagement from care, decrease. Model results are most sensitive to the smoking-associated mortality hazard ratio; varying this parameter results in 1.0-5.1 life-years gained from cessation at age 45y. If 10-25% of virologically suppressed PWH aged 30-59y in South Africa stopped smoking now, 190,000-460,000 life-years would be gained. CONCLUSIONS: Among virologically suppressed PWH in South Africa, tobacco smoking decreases life expectancy more than HIV. Integrating tobacco cessation interventions into HIV care, as endorsed by the World Health Organization, could substantially improve life expectancy.

Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: a scoping review and future directions.

BACKGROUND: Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies. METHODS: We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies. We extracted and synthesized data regarding study objectives, methods, outcomes, populations, settings, strategies, and costs. We used a standardized approach to evaluate each analysis according to 26 criteria for modeling quality and rigor. RESULTS: The most frequent approaches included compartmental modeling to examine quarantine, isolation, or testing. Early in the pandemic, the goal was to prevent travel-related COVID-19 cases with a focus on individual-level outcomes and assessing strategies such as travel restrictions, quarantine without testing, social distancing, and on-arrival PCR testing. After the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, modeling studies projected population-level outcomes and investigated these tools to limit COVID-19 spread. Very few published studies included rapid antigen screening strategies, costs, explicit model calibration, or critical evaluation of the modeling approaches. CONCLUSION: Future modeling analyses should leverage open-source data, improve the transparency of modeling methods, incorporate newly available prevention, diagnostics, and treatments, and include costs and cost-effectiveness so that modeling analyses can be informative to address future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and other emerging infectious diseases (e.g., mpox and Ebola) for travel-related health policies.

Antiretroviral Therapy Use and Disparities Among Medicare Beneficiaries with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all people with HIV. Understanding ART use among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV is therefore critically important for improving quality and equity of care among the growing population of older adults with HIV. However, a comprehensive national evaluation of filled ART prescriptions among Medicare beneficiaries is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in ART use among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV from 2013 to 2019 and to evaluate whether racial and ethnic disparities in ART use are narrowing over time. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SUBJECTS: Traditional Medicare beneficiaries with Part D living with HIV in 2013-2019. MAIN MEASURES: Months of filled ART prescriptions each year. KEY RESULTS: Compared with beneficiaries not on ART, beneficiaries on ART were younger, less likely to be Black (41.6% vs. 47.0%), and more likely to be Hispanic (13.1% vs. 9.7%). While the share of beneficiaries who filled ART prescriptions for 10 + months/year improved (+ 0.48 percentage points/year [p.p.y.], 95% CI 0.34-0.63, p < 0.001), 25.8% of beneficiaries did not fill ART for 10 + months in 2019. Between 2013 and 2019, the proportion of beneficiaries who filled ART for 10 + months improved for Black beneficiaries (65.8 to 70.3%, + 0.66 p.p.y., 95% CI 0.43-0.89, p < 0.001) and White beneficiaries (74.8 to 77.4%, + 0.38 p.p.y.; 95% CI 0.19-0.58, p < 0.001), while remaining stable for Hispanic beneficiaries (74.5 to 75.0%, + 0.12 p.p.y., 95% CI - 0.24-0.49, p = 0.51). Although Black-White disparities in ART use narrowed over time, the share of beneficiaries who filled ART prescriptions for 10 + months/year was significantly lower among Black beneficiaries relative to White beneficiaries each year. CONCLUSIONS: ART use improved from 2013 to 2019 among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV. However, about 25% of beneficiaries did not consistently fill ART prescriptions within a given year. Despite declining differences between Black and White beneficiaries, concerning disparities in ART use persist.

Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee.

BACKGROUND: In 2023, Tennessee replaced $6.2 M in US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention funding with state funds to redirect support away from men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women (TGW), and heterosexual Black women (HSBW) and to prioritize instead first responders (FR), pregnant people (PP), and survivors of sex trafficking (SST). METHODS: We used a simulation model of HIV disease to compare the clinical impact of Current, the present allocation of condoms, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and HIV testing to CDC priority risk groups (MSM/TGW/HSBW); with Reallocation, funding instead increased HIV testing and linkage of Tennessee-determined priority populations (FR/PP/SST). Key model inputs included baseline condom use (45%-49%), PrEP provision (0.1%-8%), HIV testing frequency (every 2.5-4.8 years), and 30-day HIV care linkage (57%-65%). We assumed Reallocation would reduce condom use (-4%), PrEP provision (-26%), and HIV testing (-47%) in MSM/TGW/HSBW, whereas it would increase HIV testing among FR (+47%) and HIV care linkage (to 100%/90%) among PP/SST. RESULTS: Reallocation would lead to 166 additional HIV transmissions, 190 additional deaths, and 843 life-years lost over 10 years. HIV testing reductions were most influential in sensitivity analysis; even a 24% reduction would result in 287 more deaths compared to Current. With pessimistic assumptions, we projected 1359 additional HIV transmissions, 712 additional deaths, and 2778 life-years lost over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Redirecting HIV prevention funding in Tennessee would greatly harm CDC priority populations while conferring minimal benefits to new priority populations.

Second Time's the Charm? Assessing the Sensitivity and Yield of Inpatient Diagnostic Algorithms for Pulmonary Tuberculosis in a Low-Prevalence Setting.

Background: For persons with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis, the guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend collecting 3 respiratory specimens 8 to 24 hours apart for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear and culture, in addition to 1 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT). However, data supporting this approach are limited. Our objective was to estimate the performance of 1, 2, or 3 AFB smears with or without NAATs to detect pulmonary tuberculosis in a low-prevalence setting. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of hospitalized persons at 8 Massachusetts acute care facilities who underwent mycobacterial culture on 1 or more respiratory specimens between July 2016 and December 2022. We evaluated percentage positivity and yield on serial AFB smears and NAATs among people with growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis on mycobacterial cultures. Results: Among 104 participants with culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis, the first AFB smear was positive in 41 cases (39%). A second AFB smear was positive in 11 (22%) of the 49 cases in which it was performed. No third AFB smears were positive following 2 initial negative smears. Of 52 smear-negative cases, 36 had a NAAT performed, leading to 23 additional diagnoses. Overall sensitivity to detect tuberculosis prior to culture positivity was higher in any strategy involving 1 or 2 NAATs (74%-79%), even without AFB smears, as compared with 3 smears alone (60%). Conclusions: Tuberculosis diagnostic testing with 2 AFB smears offered the same yield as 3 AFB smears while potentially reducing laboratory burden and duration of airborne infection isolation. Use of 1 or 2 NAATs increased sensitivity to detect culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis when added to AFB smear-based diagnostic testing alone.

Projected Life Expectancy for Adolescents With HIV in the US.

Importance: Life expectancy is a key measure of overall population health. Life expectancy estimates for youth with HIV in the US are needed in the current HIV care and treatment context to guide health policies and resource allocation. Objective: To compare life expectancy between 18-year-old youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV), youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (NPHIV), and youth without HIV. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a US-focused adolescent-specific Monte Carlo state-transition HIV model, we simulated individuals from age 18 years until death. We estimated probabilities of HIV treatment and care engagement, HIV progression, clinical events, and mortality from observational cohorts and clinical trials for model input parameters. The simulated individuals were 18-year-old race and ethnicity-matched youth with PHIV, youth with NPHIV, and youth without HIV; 47%, 85%, and 50% were assigned male sex at birth, respectively. Individuals were categorized by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined HIV acquisition risk: men who have sex with men, people who ever injected drugs, heterosexually active individuals at increased risk for HIV infection, or average risk for HIV infection. Distributions were 3%, 2%, 12%, and 83% for youth with PHIV and youth without HIV, and 80%, 6%, 14%, and 0% for youth with NPHIV, respectively. Among the simulated youth in this analysis, individuals were 61% Black, 24% Hispanic, and 15% White, respectively. Exposures: HIV status by timing of acquisition. Main Outcomes: Life expectancy loss for youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV: difference between mean projected life expectancy under current and ideal HIV care scenarios compared with youth without HIV. Uncertainty intervals reflect varying adolescent HIV-related mortality inputs (95% CIs). Results: Compared with youth without HIV (life expectancy: male, 76.3 years; female, 81.7 years), male youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 10.4 years (95% CI, 5.5-18.1) and 15.0 years (95% CI, 9.3-26.8); female youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 11.8 years (95% CI, 6.4-20.2) and 19.5 years (95% CI, 13.8-31.6), respectively. When receiving ideal HIV care, life expectancy losses were projected to improve for youth with PHIV (male: 0.5 years [95% CI, 0.3-1.8]: female: 0.6 years [95% CI, 0.4-2.1]) but were projected to persist for youth with NPHIV (male: 6.0 years [95% CI, 5.0-9.1]; female: 10.4 years [95% CI, 9.4-13.6]). Conclusions: This adolescent-focused microsimulation modeling analysis projected that youth with HIV would have shorter life expectancy than youth without HIV. Projected differences were larger for youth with NPHIV compared with youth with PHIV. Differences in mortality by sex at birth, sexual behavior, and injection drug use contributed to lower projected life expectancy among youth with NPHIV. Interventions focused on HIV care and social factors are needed to improve life expectancy for youth with HIV in the US.

What does the scale-up of long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis mean for the global hepatitis B epidemic?

INTRODUCTION: The HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemics are interconnected with shared routes of transmission and specific antiviral drugs that are effective against both viruses. Nearly, 300 million people around the world live with chronic HBV, many of whom are from priority populations who could benefit from HIV prevention services. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV has implications in the prevention and treatment of HBV infection, but many people at increased risk of HIV acquisition may instead prefer long-acting formulations of PrEP, which are currently not active against HBV. DISCUSSION: People at increased risk for HIV acquisition may also be at risk for or already be living with HBV infection. Oral PrEP with tenofovir is effective in preventing both HIV and HBV, and tenofovir is also the recommended treatment for chronic HBV infection. Although implementation of oral PrEP has been challenging in sub-Saharan Africa, investments in its scale-up could secondarily reduce the clinical impact of HBV. Long-acting PrEP, including injectable medicines and implantable rings, may overcome some of the implementation challenges associated with oral PrEP, such as daily pill burden, adherence challenges and stigma; however, current formulations of long-acting PrEP do not have activity against HBV replication. Ideally, PrEP programmes would offer both oral and long-acting formulations with HBV screening to optimize HIV prevention services and HBV prevention and care, when appropriate. People who are not immune to HBV would benefit from being vaccinated against HBV before initiating long-acting PrEP. People who remain non-immune to HBV despite vaccination may benefit from being offered oral, tenofovir-based PrEP given its potential for HBV PrEP. People using PrEP and living with HBV who are not linked to dedicated HBV care would also benefit from laboratory monitoring at PrEP sites to ensure safety when using and after stopping tenofovir. PrEP programmes are ideal venues to offer HBV screening, HBV vaccination for people who are non-immune and treatment with tenofovir-based PrEP for people with indications for HBV therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Long-acting PrEP holds promise for reducing HIV incidence, but its implications for the HBV epidemic, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, should not be overlooked.

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the United States: a modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population. DESIGN/METHODS: Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of 60-year-old male and female individuals: PWH, and the general US population. We estimated AAD incidence and AAD-associated mortality rates. Projected outcomes included AAD cumulative incidence, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses on AAD-specific (e.g. incidence) and HIV-specific (e.g. disengagement from HIV care) parameters, as well as premature aging among PWH. RESULTS: We projected that 22.1%/16.3% of 60-year-old male individuals/female individuals with HIV would develop AAD by 80 years compared with 15.9%/13.3% of male individuals/female individuals in the general population. Accounting for age-associated and dementia-associated quality of life, 60-year-old PWH would have a lower life expectancy (QALYs): 17.4 years (14.1 QALYs) and 16.8 years (13.4 QALYs) for male and female individuals, respectively, compared with the general population [male individuals, 21.7 years (18.4 QALYs); female individuals, 24.7 years (20.2 QALYs)]. AAD cumulative incidence was most sensitive to non-HIV-related mortality, engagement in HIV care, and AAD incidence rates. CONCLUSION: Projected estimates of AAD-associated morbidity, mortality, and quality of life can inform decision-makers and health systems planning as the population of PWH ages. Improved AAD prevention, treatment, and supportive care planning are critical for people aging with HIV.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men.

Importance: Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US. Objectives: To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023. Intervention: The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean age at death and YLG. Results: In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum. Conclusions and Relevance: In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Need for open data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean: a call to action.

Pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a higher risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes compared with pregnant people without COVID-19. In 2021, large increases in maternal mortality were reported in Jamaica, almost half of which were attributable to COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to reduce these risks, but low- and middle-income countries lack free, publicly available data, known as open data, on COVID-19 vaccine uptake for their pregnant populations. The objectives of this paper were to: review how high-income countries use open data to detect trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people and develop vaccination distribution strategies; outline barriers to making open data available for maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean; and propose a multipronged strategy that would increase the availability of open data on maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean. A multipronged strategy to fill the data void would involve: (i) utilizing existing Caribbean maternal immunization data collection entities; (ii) adapting digital software tools to establish maternal electronic immunization registries; and (iii) collaborating with local partners skilled in data analytics. Making open data available for COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean could offer substantial benefits, including the development of measurable maternal COVID-19 vaccination goals and the facilitation of vaccine decision-making discussions between providers and pregnant people.

Las embarazadas con la enfermedad por coronavirus del 2019 (COVID-19) tienen un mayor riesgo de resultados maternos y fetales adversos que aquellas libres de la enfermedad. En el 2021, en Jamaica se notificó un gran aumento de la mortalidad materna, del cual casi la mitad fue atribuible a la COVID-19. Se ha demostrado que la vacunación contra la COVID-19 reduce tales riesgos, pero los países de ingresos bajos y medianos carecen de datos gratuitos y de carácter público, conocidos como datos abiertos, sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 por parte de las mujeres durante el embarazo. Los objetivos del presente artículo consistieron en examinar cómo los países de ingresos altos utilizan los datos abiertos para detectar las tendencias de aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo y formular estrategias de distribución de las vacunas; señalar los obstáculos que dificultan la disponibilidad de los datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe; y proponer una estrategia múltiple que permita aumentar la disponibilidad de datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe. Una estrategia múltiple para llenar este vacío de información implicaría: a) utilizar las entidades de recopilación de datos sobre inmunización materna ya existentes en el Caribe; b) adaptar las herramientas informáticas digitales para crear registros electrónicos de vacunación materna; y c) colaborar con asociados locales especializados en el análisis de datos. Facilitar el acceso a los datos abiertos sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo en el Caribe podría ofrecer beneficios considerables, tales como el establecimiento de objetivos cuantificables en materia de vacunación materna contra la COVID-19, y propiciar las deliberaciones sobre la toma de decisiones en materia de vacunación entre los prestadores de atención de salud y las embarazadas.

Gestantes com a doença pelo coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) têm maior risco de desfechos maternos e fetais adversos em comparação com gestantes sem COVID-19. Em 2021, foi registrado um aumento acentuado da mortalidade materna na Jamaica, e quase metade era atribuível à COVID-19. Foi demonstrado que a vacinação contra a COVID-19 reduz esses riscos, mas os países de baixa e média renda não dispõem de dados gratuitos e publicamente disponíveis (os chamados dados abertos) sobre a adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes. Os objetivos deste estudo foram: analisar como os países de alta renda usam dados abertos para detectar tendências na adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes e desenvolver estratégias de distribuição da vacina; descrever os obstáculos para disponibilizar dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe; e propor uma estratégia multifacetada que aumente a disponibilidade de dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe. Uma estratégia multifacetada para obter dados a fim de preencher essa lacuna envolveria: (i) utilização das entidades existentes que coletam dados de imunização materna no Caribe; (ii) adaptação de ferramentas de software para estabelecer registros eletrônicos de imunização materna; e (iii) colaboração com parceiros locais especializados em análise de dados. A disponibilização de dados abertos sobre a adesão de gestantes à vacinação contra a COVID-19 no Caribe poderia oferecer benefícios substanciais, incluindo o desenvolvimento de metas mensuráveis de vacinação materna contra a COVID-19, e facilitar discussões entre profissionais de saúde e gestantes para a tomada de decisões sobre vacinas.

Need for open data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean: a call to action / Necesidad de datos abiertos sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo en el Caribe: un llamado a la acción

[ABSTRACT]. Pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a higher risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes compared with pregnant people without COVID-19. In 2021, large increases in maternal mortality were reported in Jamaica, almost half of which were attributable to COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to reduce these risks, but low and middle-income countries lack free, publicly available data, known as open data, on COVID-19 vaccine uptake for their pregnant populations. The objectives of this paper were to: review how high-income countries use open data to detect trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people and develop vaccination distribution strategies; outline barriers to making open data available for maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean; and propose a multipronged strategy that would increase the availability of open data on maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean. A multipronged strategy to fill the data void would involve: (i) utilizing existing Caribbean maternal immunization data collection entities; (ii) adapting digital software tools to establish maternal electronic immunization registries; and (iii) collaborating with local partners skilled in data analytics. Making open data available for COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean could offer substantial benefits, including the development of measurable maternal COVID-19 vaccination goals and the facilitation of vaccine decision-making discussions between providers and pregnant people.

[RESUMEN]. Las embarazadas con la enfermedad por coronavirus del 2019 (COVID-19) tienen un mayor riesgo de resultados maternos y fetales adversos que aquellas libres de la enfermedad. En el 2021, en Jamaica se notificó un gran aumento de la mortalidad materna, del cual casi la mitad fue atribuible a la COVID-19. Se ha demostrado que la vacunación contra la COVID-19 reduce tales riesgos, pero los países de ingresos bajos y medianos carecen de datos gratuitos y de carácter público, conocidos como datos abiertos, sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 por parte de las mujeres durante el embarazo. Los objetivos del presente artículo consistieron en examinar cómo los países de ingresos altos utilizan los datos abiertos para detectar las tendencias de aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo y formular estrategias de distribución de las vacunas; señalar los obstáculos que dificultan la disponibilidad de los datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe; y proponer una estrategia múltiple que permita aumentar la disponibilidad de datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe. Una estrategia múltiple para llenar este vacío de información implicaría: a) utilizar las entidades de recopilación de datos sobre inmunización materna ya existentes en el Caribe; b) adaptar las herramientas informáticas digitales para crear registros electrónicos de vacunación materna; y c) colaborar con asociados locales especializados en el análisis de datos. Facilitar el acceso a los datos abiertos sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo en el Caribe podría ofrecer beneficios considerables, tales como el establecimiento de objetivos cuantificables en materia de vacunación materna contra la COVID-19, y propiciar las deliberaciones sobre la toma de decisiones en materia de vacunación entre los prestadores de atención de salud y las embarazadas.

[RESUMO]. Gestantes com a doença pelo coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) têm maior risco de desfechos maternos e fetais adversos em comparação com gestantes sem COVID-19. Em 2021, foi registrado um aumento acentuado da mortalidade materna na Jamaica, e quase metade era atribuível à COVID-19. Foi demonstrado que a vacinação contra a COVID-19 reduz esses riscos, mas os países de baixa e média renda não dispõem de dados gratuitos e publicamente disponíveis (os chamados dados abertos) sobre a adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes. Os objetivos deste estudo foram: analisar como os países de alta renda usam dados abertos para detectar tendências na adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes e desenvolver estratégias de distribuição da vacina; descrever os obstáculos para disponibilizar dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe; e propor uma estratégia multifacetada que aumente a disponibilidade de dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe. Uma estratégia multifacetada para obter dados a fim de preencher essa lacuna envolveria: (i) utilização das entidades exis- tentes que coletam dados de imunização materna no Caribe; (ii) adaptação de ferramentas de software para estabelecer registros eletrônicos de imunização materna; e (iii) colaboração com parceiros locais especial- izados em análise de dados. A disponibilização de dados abertos sobre a adesão de gestantes à vacinação contra a COVID-19 no Caribe poderia oferecer benefícios substanciais, incluindo o desenvolvimento de metas mensuráveis de vacinação materna contra a COVID-19, e facilitar discussões entre profissionais de saúde e gestantes para a tomada de decisões sobre vacinas.

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.

PURPOSE: Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates. METHODS: Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population. RESULTS: Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.

Projected Benefits of Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy in Nonsuppressed People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Experiencing Adherence Barriers.

Background: In a demonstration project, long-acting, injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine (CAB-RPV) achieved viral suppression in a high proportion of people with HIV (PWH) who were virologically nonsuppressed with adherence barriers. We projected the long-term impact of CAB-RPV for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers. Methods: Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, we compared 3 strategies: (1) standard of care oral integrase inhibitor-based ART (INSTI); (2) INSTI-based ART with supportive social services ("wraparound services" [WS]) (INSTI/WS); and (3) CAB-RPV with WS (CAB-RPV/WS). Model outcomes included viral suppression (%) and engagement in care (%) at 3 years, and life expectancy (life-years [LYs]). Base case cohort characteristics included mean age of 47y (standard deviation [SD], 10y), 90% male at birth, and baseline mean CD4 count 150/µL (SD, 75/µL). Viral suppression at 3 months was 13% (INSTI), 28% (INSTI/WS), and 60% (CAB-RPV/WS). Mean loss to follow-up was 28/100 person-years (PY) (SD, 2/100 PY) without WS and 16/100 PY (SD, 1/100 PY) with WS. Results: Projected viral suppression at 3 years would vary widely: 16% (INSTI), 38% (INSTI/WS), and 44% (CAB-RPV/WS). Life expectancy would be 7.4 LY (INSTI), 9.0 LY (INSTI/WS), and 9.4 LY (CAB-RPV/WS). Projected benefits over oral ART would be greater for PWH initiating CAB-RPV/WS at lower CD4 counts. Across plausible key parameter ranges, CAB-RPV/WS would improve viral suppression and life expectancy compared with oral INSTI strategies. Conclusions: These model-based results support that long-acting injectable CAB-RPV with extensive support services for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers is likely to increase viral suppression and improve survival. A prospective study to provide further evidence is needed.

The association between all-cause mortality and HIV acquisition risk groups in the United States, 2001-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States. METHODS: We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Compared with sex-specific heterosexually active people at average risk for HIV (HAH), the adjusted HR (95% CI) were: male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46), female ever-PWID 3.50 (2.04, 6.01), MSM 1.51 (1.00, 2.27), male HIH 1.68 (1.04, 2.06), female HIH 2.35 (1.87, 2.95), and male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46). CONCLUSIONS: Most people at increased risk for HIV in the US experience higher all-cause mortality than people at average risk. Strategies addressing social determinants that increase HIV risk should be incorporated into HIV prevention and other health promotion programs.

Influenza: seasonality and travel-related considerations.

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW: This review aims to summarize the transmission patterns of influenza, its seasonality in different parts of the globe, air travel- and cruise ship-related influenza infections and interventions to reduce transmission. KEY FINDINGS: The seasonality of influenza varies globally, with peak periods occurring mainly between October and April in the northern hemisphere (NH) and between April and October in the southern hemisphere (SH) in temperate climate zones. However, influenza seasonality is significantly more variable in the tropics. Influenza is one of the most common travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases and can be contracted during travel, such as during a cruise or through air travel. Additionally, travellers can come into contact with people from regions with ongoing influenza transmission. Current influenza immunization schedules in the NH and SH leave individuals susceptible during their respective spring and summer months if they travel to the other hemisphere during that time. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS: The differences in influenza seasonality between hemispheres have substantial implications for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of travellers. Health care providers should be aware of influenza activity when patients report travel plans, and they should provide alerts and advise on prevention, diagnostic and treatment options. To mitigate the risk of travel-related influenza, interventions include antivirals for self-treatment (in combination with the use of rapid self-tests), extending the shelf life of influenza vaccines to enable immunization during the summer months for international travellers and allowing access to the influenza vaccine used in the opposite hemisphere as a travel-related vaccine. With the currently available vaccines, the most important preventive measure involves optimizing the seasonal influenza vaccination. It is also imperative that influenza is recognized as a travel-related illness among both travellers and health care professionals.

Factors Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Uptake Among Pregnant Women and Nonpregnant Women of Reproductive Age in Jamaica.

Background: Despite high rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related maternal mortality, Jamaica currently has little data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant women. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey of 192 reproductive-aged women in Jamaica from February 1 to 8, 2022. Participants were recruited from a convenience sample of patients, providers, and staff at a teaching hospital. We assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status and COVID-19-related medical mistrust (operationalized as vaccine confidence, government mistrust, and race-based mistrust). We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to test the association between vaccine uptake and pregnancy. Results: Of 192 respondents, 72 (38%) were pregnant. Most (93%) were Black. Vaccine uptake was 35% in pregnant women versus 75% in nonpregnant women. Pregnant women were more likely to cite healthcare providers versus the government as trustworthy sources of COVID-19 vaccine information (65% vs 28%). Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .49-.95], aPR = 0.61 [95% CI, .40-.95], and aPR = 0.68 [95% CI, .52-.89], respectively). Race-based mistrust was not associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the final model. Conclusions: Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica. Future studies should evaluate the efficacy of strategies proven to improve maternal vaccination coverage, including standing "opt-out" vaccination orders and collaborative provider and patient-led educational videos tailored for pregnant individuals. Strategies that decouple vaccine messaging from government agencies also warrant evaluation.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Clinic-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for People With HIV, Depression, and Virologic Failure in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Depression affects 25%-30% of people with HIV (PWH) in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and is associated with both antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence and increased mortality. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of task-shifted, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for PWH with diagnosed depression and virologic failure from a randomized trial in RSA. SETTING: RSA. METHODS: Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model, we simulated both trial strategies: enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) and ETAU plus CBT for ART adherence and depression (CBT-AD; 8 sessions plus 2 follow-ups). In the trial, viral suppression at 1 year was 20% with ETAU and 32% with CBT-AD. Model inputs included mean initial age (39 years) and CD4 count (214/µL), ART costs ($7.5-22/mo), and CBT costs ($29/session). We projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/QALY [discounted 3%/yr]; cost-effectiveness threshold: ≤$2545/QALY [0.5× per capita GDP]). In sensitivity analyses, we determined how input parameter variation affected cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Model-projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression were 18.9% and 8.7% with ETAU and 21.2% and 9.7% with CBT-AD, respectively. Compared with ETAU, CBT-AD would increase discounted life expectancy from 4.12 to 4.68 QALYs and costs from $6210/person to $6670/person (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $840/QALY). CBT-AD would remain cost-effective unless CBT-AD cost >$70/session and simultaneously improved 1-year viral suppression by ≤4% compared with ETAU. CONCLUSIONS: CBT for PWH with depression and virologic failure in RSA could improve life expectancy and be cost-effective. Such targeted mental health interventions should be integrated into HIV care.