Impulsive Fire Disturbance in a Savanna Model: Tree-Grass Coexistence States, Multiple Stable System States, and Resilience.

Savanna ecosystems are shaped by the frequency and intensity of regular fires. We model savannas via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) encoding a one-sided inhibitory Lotka-Volterra interaction between trees and grass. By applying fire as a discrete disturbance, we create an impulsive dynamical system that allows us to identify the impact of variation in fire frequency and intensity. The model exhibits three different bistability regimes: between savanna and grassland; two savanna states; and savanna and woodland. The impulsive model reveals rich bifurcation structures in response to changes in fire intensity and frequency-structures that are largely invisible to analogous ODE models with continuous fire. In addition, by using the amount of grass as an example of a socially valued function of the system state, we examine the resilience of the social value to different disturbance regimes. We find that large transitions ("tipping") in the valued quantity can be triggered by small changes in disturbance regime.

Modeling the Impact of Newcastle Disease Virus Vaccinations on Chicken Production Systems in Northeastern Madagascar.

Chickens are a key source of nutrition for rural Malagasy communities. Due to high endemic rates of Newcastle disease, it remains challenging to raise sustainable chicken flocks as a consistent food source. Here, we explore the impact of triannual Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccine interventions on the growth and herd immunity acquisition of Malagasy chicken flocks. Between 2011 and 2018 we collected longitudinal data to assess the population dynamics of chicken populations in remote Malagasy communities. In 2016, we launched a pilot campaign for vaccination in six rural communities to determine the impacts on chicken survivorship and productivity. We used these data to specify a mathematical model of realistic Malagasy chicken population dynamics under a triannual vaccination regime. The mathematical model represents an extension to conventional SIR models that allows for modeling the impact of specific vaccinations on chicken flock dynamics, rather than estimation of parameters. Understanding chicken population dynamics is important for realizing the potential for domestic chicken flocks to serve as sustainable food sources. The results suggested that vaccination coverage of at least ~40% is necessary over 5+ years to achieve population doubling, while complete herd immunity may not be possible given the short duration of effectiveness of vaccination, and the high levels of births and deaths in the chicken flocks.

A topographic mechanism for arcing of dryland vegetation bands.

Banded patterns consisting of alternating bare soil and dense vegetation have been observed in water-limited ecosystems across the globe, often appearing along gently sloped terrain with the stripes aligned transverse to the elevation gradient. In many cases, these vegetation bands are arced, with field observations suggesting a link between the orientation of arcing relative to the grade and the curvature of the underlying terrain. We modify the water transport in the Klausmeier model of water-biomass interactions, originally posed on a uniform hillslope, to qualitatively capture the influence of terrain curvature on the vegetation patterns. Numerical simulations of this modified model indicate that the vegetation bands arc convex-downslope when growing on top of a ridge, and convex-upslope when growing in a valley. This behaviour is consistent with observations from remote sensing data that we present here. Model simulations show further that whether bands grow on ridges, valleys or both depends on the precipitation level. A survey of three banded vegetation sites, each with a different aridity level, indicates qualitatively similar behaviour.

Signatures of human impact on self-organized vegetation in the Horn of Africa.

In many dryland environments, vegetation self-organizes into bands that can be clearly identified in remotely-sensed imagery. The status of individual bands can be tracked over time, allowing for a detailed remote analysis of how human populations affect the vital balance of dryland ecosystems. In this study, we characterize vegetation change in areas of the Horn of Africa where imagery taken in the early 1950s is available. We find that substantial change is associated with steep increases in human activity, which we infer primarily through the extent of road and dirt track development. A seemingly paradoxical signature of human impact appears as an increase in the widths of the vegetation bands, which effectively increases the extent of vegetation cover in many areas. We show that this widening occurs due to altered rates of vegetation colonization and mortality at the edges of the bands, and conjecture that such changes are driven by human-induced shifts in plant species composition. Our findings suggest signatures of human impact that may aid in identifying and monitoring vulnerable drylands in the Horn of Africa.

The frequency and extent of sub-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic Ocean.

In July 2011, the observation of a massive phytoplankton bloom underneath a sea ice-covered region of the Chukchi Sea shifted the scientific consensus that regions of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice were inhospitable to photosynthetic life. Although the impact of widespread phytoplankton blooms under sea ice on Arctic Ocean ecology and carbon fixation is potentially marked, the prevalence of these events in the modern Arctic and in the recent past is, to date, unknown. We investigate the timing, frequency, and evolution of these events over the past 30 years. Although sea ice strongly attenuates solar radiation, it has thinned significantly over the past 30 years. The thinner summertime Arctic sea ice is increasingly covered in melt ponds, which permit more light penetration than bare or snow-covered ice. Our model results indicate that the recent thinning of Arctic sea ice is the main cause of a marked increase in the prevalence of light conditions conducive to sub-ice blooms. We find that as little as 20 years ago, the conditions required for sub-ice blooms may have been uncommon, but their frequency has increased to the point that nearly 30% of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean in July permits sub-ice blooms. Recent climate change may have markedly altered the ecology of the Arctic Ocean.

Assessing the robustness of spatial pattern sequences in a dryland vegetation model.

A particular sequence of patterns, 'gaps→labyrinth→spots', occurs with decreasing precipitation in previously reported numerical simulations of partial differential equation dryland vegetation models. These observations have led to the suggestion that this sequence of patterns can serve as an early indicator of desertification in some ecosystems. Because parameter values in the vegetation models can take on a range of plausible values, it is important to investigate whether the pattern sequence prediction is robust to variation. For a particular model, we find that a quantity calculated via bifurcation-theoretic analysis appears to serve as a proxy for the pattern sequences that occur in numerical simulations across a range of parameter values. We find in further analysis that the quantity takes on values consistent with the standard sequence in an ecologically relevant limit of the model parameter values. This suggests that the standard sequence is a robust prediction of the model, and we conclude by proposing a methodology for assessing the robustness of the standard sequence in other models and formulations.