Prevalence and factors associated with pediatric HIV therapy failure in a tertiary hospital in Asmara, Eritrea: A 15-year retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment failure (TF) in HIV infected children is a major concern in resource-constrained settings in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study investigated the prevalence, incidence, and factors associated with first-line cART failure using the virologic (plasma viral load), immunologic and clinical criteria among HIV-infected children. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of children (<18 years of age on treatment for a period of > 6 months) enrolled in the pediatric HIV/AIDs treatment program at Orotta National Pediatric Referral Hospital from January 2005 to December 2020 was conducted. Data were summarized using percentages, medians (± interquartile range (IQR)), or mean ± standard deviation (SD). Where appropriate, Pearson Chi-Squire (χ2) tests or Fishers exacts test, Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates, and unadjusted and adjusted Cox-proportional hazard regression models were employed. RESULTS: Out of 724 children with at least 24 weeks' follow-up 279 experienced therapy failure (TF) making prevalence of 38.5% (95% CI 35-42.2) over a median follow-up of 72 months (IQR, 49-112 months), with a crude incidence of failure of 6.5 events per 100- person-years (95% CI 5.8-7.3). In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, independent factors of TF were suboptimal adherence (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 2.9, 95% CI 2.2-3.9, p < 0.001), cART backbone other than Zidovudine and Lamivudine (aHR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2, p = 0.01), severe immunosuppression (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI 1-2.4, p = 0.04), wasting or weight for height z-score < -2 (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.02), late cART initiation calendar years (aHR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, p < 0.001), and older age at cART initiation (aHR = 1.01, 95% CI 1-1.02, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Seven in one hundred children on first-line cART are likely to develop TF every year. To address this problem, access to viral load tests, adherence support, integration nutritional care into the clinic, and research on factors associated with suboptimal adherence should be prioritized.

Attrition and associated factors among children living with HIV at a tertiary hospital in Eritrea: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reducing attrition in paediatric HIV-positive patients using combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is a challenge. This study explored the rates and predictors of attrition in children started on cART in Asmara, Eritrea. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using data from all paediatric patients on cART between 2005 and 2020, conducted at the Orotta National Referral and Teaching Hospital. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the likelihood of attrition and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the factors associated with attrition. All p values were two sided and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The study enrolled 710 participants with 374 boys (52.7%) and 336 girls (47.3%). After 5364 person-years' (PY) follow-up, attrition occurred in 172 (24.2%) patients: 65 (9.2%) died and 107 (15.1%) were lost to follow-up (LTFU). The crude incidence rate of attrition was 3.2 events/100 PY, mortality rate was 2.7/100 PY and LTFU was 1.2/100 PY. The independent predictors of attrition included male sex (adjusted HR (AHR)=1.6, 95% CI: 1 to 2.4), residence outside Zoba Maekel (AHR=1.5, 95% CI: 1 to 2.3), later enrolment years (2010-2015: AHR=3.2, 95% CI: 1.9 to 5.3; >2015: AHR=6.1, 95% CI: 3 to 12.2), WHO body mass index-for-age z-score <-2 (AHR=1.4, 95% CI: 0.9 to 2.1), advanced HIV disease (WHO III or IV) at enrolment (AHR=2.2, 95% CI: 1.2 to 3.9), and initiation of zidovudine+lamivudine or other cART backbones (unadjusted HR (UHR)=2, 95% CI: 1.2 to 3.2). In contrast, a reduced likelihood of attrition was observed in children with a record of cART changes (UHR=0.2, 95% CI: 0.15 to 0.4). CONCLUSION: A low incidence of attrition was observed in this study. However, the high mortality rate in the first 24 months of treatment and late presentation are concerning. Therefore, data-driven interventions for improving programme quality and outcomes should be prioritised.