Shallow magma pre-charge during repeated Plinian eruptions at Sakurajima volcano.

Vigorous explosive eruptions that produce continuous high eruption plumes (Plinian eruptions) are generally assumed to tap a magma reservoir. The 1914 Plinian eruption at the Sakurajima volcano located on the Aira caldera rim is one such case, where the main magma reservoir was assumed to be located approximately 10 km beneath the caldera. However, we report that estimated magma storage depths immediately prior to the eruption were much shallower (0.9-3.2 km) on the basis of pressure at which volatiles within the phenocryst melt inclusions and plagioclase rims were finally equilibrated. The same is observed for two historic Plinian eruptions in 1471 and 1779. This depth is even shallower than the shallowest magma reservoir estimated from the pressure source for geodetic deformation during recent Vulcanian explosions (4 km beneath the crater). We propose that the magmas were fed from a thick conduit pre-charged from deeper reservoirs. The ground subsidence observed after 1914 within the Aira caldera may have been caused by conduit recharge following the eruption. Voluminous conduit recharge could be key to forecasting the next possible large eruption at the Sakurajima volcano.

Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan.

Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide.