RESUMO
The purpose of this study was to propose an approach to predict the distribution of chemicals in food in developing countries to assess consumer risk and access to the international market with a limited number of laboratory analyses. The first step consists of identifying the GEMS/Food Contaminants database and the chemical/food combination relevant for a particular country. The identification of critical chemical/food combination should be used to prioritize the analysis to be performed in a total diet study (TDS). The second step consists of modelling a distribution model based on the mean concentration generated from TDS associated with the variability observed in a larger dataset consisting of individual food contamination data from the GEMS food database. The simulated distributions may provide information regarding how to establish food safety standards and to assess the potential for accessing international market in the context of a value chain. This method is illustrated by case studies from the recent Regional TDS (RTDS) conducted in Sub Saharan Africa. We concluded that further work is needed to gain experience and to fully validate this approach. However, organized data sharing and developing harmonized methods for data analysis are key roles for international organizations, such as FAO, WHO, and WTO. Finally, it is important to remember that such a data-driven approach still requires significant investments in terms of human resources and analytical capacity.
