RESUMO
BackgroundIn December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40-80% [1, 2, 3]. AimThis study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland. MethodsWe generated whole genome sequences from 11.8% of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variants transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale. ResultsWe estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43-52% compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07-1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06-1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00-1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021. ConclusionThe observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2-3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.
RESUMO
Effective public-health measures and vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 require granular knowledge of population-level immune responses. We developed a Tripartite Automated Blood Immunoassay (TRABI) to assess the IgG response against the ectodomain and the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein as well as the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2. We used TRABI for continuous seromonitoring of hospital patients and healthy blood donors (n=72222) in the canton of Zurich from December 2019 to December 2020 (pre-vaccine period). Seroprevalence peaked in May 2020 and rose again in November 2020 in both cohorts. Validations of results included antibody diffusional sizing and Western Blotting. Using an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model, we found that antibodies waned with a half-life of 75 days, whereas the cumulative incidence rose from 2.3% in June 2020 to 12.2% in mid-December 2020 in the population of the canton of Zurich. A follow-up health survey indicated that about 10% of patients infected with wildtype SARS-CoV-2 sustained some symptoms at least twelve months post COVID-19 and up to the timepoint of survey participation. Crucially, we found no evidence for a difference in long-term complications between those whose infection was symptomatic and those with asymptomatic acute infection. The cohort of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2- infected subjects represents a resource for the study of chronic and possibly unexpected sequelae.
