Cold-season freeze frequency is a pervasive driver of subcontinental forest growth.

As northern latitudes experience rapid winter warming, there is an urgent need to assess the effect of varying winter conditions on tree growth and forest carbon sequestration potential. We examined tree growth responses to variability in cold-season (November­April) frequency of freeze days (FFD) over 1951 to 2018 using tree-ring data from 35,217 trees and 57 species at 4,375 sites distributed across Canada. We found that annual radial growth responses to FFD varied by species, with some commonalities across genera and clades. The growth of gymnosperms with late spring leaf-out strategies was negatively related to FFD; years with high FFD were most detrimental to the annual growth of Pinus banksiana, Pinus contorta, Larix lyalli, Abies amabilis, and Abies lasiocarpa. In contrast, the growth of angiosperms with early leaf-out strategies, namely, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera, was better in the coldest years, and gymnosperms with intermediate leaf-out timing, such as widespread Picea mariana and Picea glauca, had no consistent relationship to FFD. Tree growth responses to FFD were further modulated by tree size, tree age, regional climate (i.e., mean cold-season temperature), and local site conditions. Overall, our results suggest that moderately warming winters may temporarily improve the growth of widespread pines and some high-elevation conifers in western Canada, whereas warming winters may be detrimental to the growth of widespread boreal angiosperms. Our findings also highlight the value of using species-specific climate-growth relationships to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics.

Publisher Correction: Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought.

Northern forests at the leading edge of their distributions may not show increased primary productivity under climate warming, being limited by climatic extremes such as drought. Looking beyond tree growth to underlying physiological mechanisms is fundamental for accurate predictions of forest responses to climate warming and drought stress. Within a 32-year genetic field trial, we analyze relative contributions of xylem plasticity and inferred stomatal response to drought tolerance in regional populations of a widespread conifer. Genetic adaptation leads to varying responses under drought. Trailing-edge tree populations produce fewer tracheids with thicker cell walls, characteristic of drought-tolerance. Stomatal response explains the moderate drought tolerance of tree populations in central areas of the species range. Growth loss of the northern population is linked to low stomatal responsiveness combined with the production of tracheids with thinner cell walls. Forests of the western boreal may therefore lack physiological adaptations necessary to tolerate drier conditions.

Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.

With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.

Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.

Douglas-fir plantations in Europe: a retrospective test of assisted migration to address climate change.

We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas-fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta-analysis is based on long-term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north-south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas-fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas-fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe.