History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

Predicting Soybean Rust Incursions into the North American Continental Interior Using Crop Monitoring, Spore Trapping, and Aerobiological Modeling.

Between 2005 and 2009, millions of U.S. and Canadian soybean acres that would have received fungicide application remained untreated for soybean rust due to information disseminated through the Integrated Pest Management Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (ipmPIPE), increasing North American producers' profits by hundreds of millions of dollars each year. The results of our analysis of Phakopsora pachyrhizi urediniospores in rain collections, aerobiology model output, and observations of soybean rust spread in 2007 and 2008 show a strong correspondence between spore collections and model predictions for the continental interior of North America, where soybean is an important crop. The analysis suggests that control practices based on up-to-date maps of soybean rust observations and associated commentary from Extension Specialists delivered by the ipmPIPE may have suppressed the number and strength of inoculum source areas in the southern states and retarded the northward progress of seasonal soybean rust incursions into continental North America. The analysis further indicates that spore trapping and aerobiological modeling can reduce our reliance on the costly Sentinel Plot Network while maintaining the effectiveness of the ipmPIPE system for soybean rust management.

Removal of Wet Deposited Phakopsora pachyrhizi Urediniospores from Soybean Leaves by Subsequent Rainfall.

Urediniospores of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, the soybean rust fungus, have a high probability of being removed from a soybean leaf by water runoff associated with subsequent rainfall after wet deposition. The effects of rainfall intensity, subsequent spore-free rainfall duration, and soybean leaf sample height on uredinia density were used to evaluate the retention of urediniospores on soybean leaf tissue. Rainfall simulations of 45 and 85 mm/h were conducted on potted soybean plants that were inoculated with 2 min of urediniospore-injected simulated rainfall and exposed to 0, 1, and 30 min of subsequent spore-free rainfall. Urediniospore retention was estimated using uredinia density values obtained from a detached leaf bioassay for the sample heights of soil level, mid-canopy, and upper-canopy. Soil level leaflets inoculated with the 45 mm/h rainfall intensity treatment had a higher (P < 0.01) mean number of uredinia/cm2 than the 85 mm/h treatment, even though they were inoculated with approximately 40% fewer urediniospores. Subsequent spore-free rainfall reduced (P < 0.01) uredinia density by as much as 38 and 91% for the 1- and 30-min durations, respectively. The relationship between uredinia density proportion and depth of rainfall was best fit using an inverse power empirical model. Our results indicate that a majority of the wet deposited P. pachyrhizi urediniospores would be removed from soybean leaf surfaces by subsequent rainfall, but sufficient percentages of spores (10 to 25%) will likely remain on the leaf tissue long enough to germinate and infect during heavy summer rains lasting ≥30 min.

The Effect of Solar Irradiance on the Mortality of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Urediniospores.

Soybean rust, caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi, may be the most important foliar disease of soybean. Within the last 10 years, the fungus has moved to many new geographical locations via spread of airborne urediniospores. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between urediniospore viability and exposure to solar radiation. Urediniospores of P. pachyrhizi were exposed in Capitán Miranda, Paraguay, to determine the deleterious effects of sunlight. Concomitant total solar (0.285 to 2.8 µm) and ultraviolet (0.295 to 0.385 µm) irradiance measurements were used to predict urediniospore germination. Urediniospores exposed to doses of solar and ultraviolet (UV) radiation ≥27.3 MJ/m2 and ≥1.2 MJ/m2, respectively, did not germinate. The proportions of urediniospores that germinated, normalized with respect to the germination proportion for unexposed urediniospores from the same collections, were a linear function of solar irradiance (R2 = 0.83). UV measurements predicted normalized germination proportions equally well. Results of inoculation experiments with exposed P. pachyrhizi urediniospores supported the results of the germination trials, although the effects of moderate levels of irradiance varied. The relationship between urediniospore viability and exposure to solar radiation has been incorporated into the U.S. Department of Agriculture's soybean rust aerobiological model that provides North American soybean growers with decision support for managing soybean rust.

Distribution of Leaf-Feeding Beetles and Bean pod mottle virus (BPMV) in Illinois and Transmission of BPMV in Soybean.

Bean leaf beetles (BLB; Cerotoma trifurcata) were collected in soybean (Glycine max) fields in 58 and 99 Illinois counties surveyed during the 2000 and 2001 growing seasons, respectively. In 2000, BLB counts were highest in the central portion of the state. BLB counts were lower the following year, but were more uniformly distributed throughout the state. BLB tested positive for Bean pod mottle virus (BPMV) in 37 of 41 counties assayed in 2000. In 2001, BLB tested positive for BPMV in 86 of 99 counties sampled. In 2000 and 2001, western corn rootworm (WCR; Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) adults were abundant in soybean fields only in east central Illinois. WCR adults tested positive for BPMV in 21 of 21 east central Illinois counties in 2000 and 20 of 24 sampled in 2001. BPMV was detected in soybean plants in 38 of 46 counties sampled in 2000. Field-collected WCR adults transmitted BPMV to potted soybean plants at low rates either directly from BPMV-infected soybean fields or with prior feeding on BPMV-infected plants. This is the first report of the distribution of BLB, WCR adults, and BPMV in Illinois and of BPMV transmission by adult WCR.

Mitigating epidemics caused by non-persistently transmitted aphid-borne viruses: the role of the pliant environment.

Using Soybean mosaic virus as a model system, the rate, magnitude and timing of epidemics caused by non-persistently transmitted, aphid-borne viruses are examined under various field conditions. Emphasis is placed on the behavioural responses of vectors to environmental cues, although all three biotic components (host plant, vector and virus) are considered. Both single and double manipulations of the cropping system environment are explored using a computer model developed earlier by Ruesink and Irwin (Plant Virus Epidemics: Monitoring, Modelling and Predicting Outbreaks.