An economic evaluation of early assessment for Alzheimer's disease in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing and treating patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) at an early stage should improve the quality of life of the patient and caregiver. In the United Kingdom, cost-effectiveness of early assessment of individuals presenting with subjective memory complaints and treating those with AD with donepezil was evaluated. METHODS: A discrete event simulation of AD progression and the effect of treatment interventions was developed. Patient-level data from donepezil trials and a 7-year follow-up registry were used to model correlated longitudinal rates of change in cognition, behavior, and function. Other epidemiological and health services data, including estimates of undiagnosed dementia and delays in diagnosis, were based on published sources. Simulated individuals were followed up for 10 years. RESULTS: In the base-case estimates, 17 patients need to be assessed to diagnose one patient with AD, resulting in an average assessment cost of £4100 ($6000; $1 US = £0.68 UK) per patient diagnosed (2007 cost year). In comparison with a scenario without early assessment or pharmacologic treatment, early assessment reduces health care costs by £3600 ($5300) per patient and societal costs by £7750 ($11,400). Savings are also substantial compared with treatment without early assessment, averaging £2100 ($3100) in health care costs, and £5700 ($8400) in societal costs. Results are most sensitive to estimates of patient care costs and the probability of patients reporting subjective memory complaints. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, early assessment leads to savings or is highly cost-effective in the majority of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although early assessment has significant up-front costs, identifying AD patients at an early stage results in cost savings and health benefits compared with no treatment or treatment in the absence of early assessment.

The time course of subsequent hospitalizations and associated costs in survivors of an ischemic stroke in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Documentation of the hospitalizations rates following a stroke provides the inputs required for planning health services and to evaluate the economic efficiency of any new therapies. METHODS: Hospitalization rates by cause were examined using administrative data on 18,695 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke (first or subsequent, excluding transient ischemic attack) in Saskatchewan, Canada between 1990 and 1995. Medical history was available retrospectively to January 1980 and follow-up was complete to March 2000. Analyses evaluated the rate and timing of all-cause and cardiovascular hospitalizations within discrete periods in the five years following the index stroke. Cardiovascular hospitalizations included patients with a primary diagnosis of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, stable or unstable angina, heart failure or peripheral arterial disease. RESULTS: One-third (36%) of patients were identified by a hospitalized stroke. Mean age was 70.5 years, 48.0% were male, half had a history of stroke or a transient ischemic attack at the time of their index stroke. Three-quarters of the patients (72.7%) were hospitalized at least once during a mean follow-up of 4.6 years, accruing CAD $24 million in the first year alone. Of all hospitalizations, 20.4% were related to cardiovascular disease and 1.6% to bleeds. In the month following index stroke, 12.5% were admitted, an average of 1.04 times per patient hospitalized. Strokes accounted for 33% of all hospitalizations in the first month. The rate diminished steadily throughout the year and stabilized in the second year when approximately one-third of patients required hospitalization, at a rate of about one hospitalization for every two patient-years. Mean lengths of stay ranged from nine days to nearly 40 days. Close-fitting Weibull functions allow highly specific probability estimates. Other cardiovascular risk factors significantly increased hospitalization rates. CONCLUSION: After stroke, there are frequent hospitalizations accounting for substantial additional costs. Though these rates drop after one year, they remain high over time. The number of other cardiovascular causes of hospitalization confirms that stroke is a manifestation of disseminated atherothrombotic disease.

Assessment of compliance with osteoporosis treatment and its consequences in a managed care population.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate non-compliance with osteoporosis medications as well as its implications for health and economic outcomes in actual practice. STUDY DESIGN: Data on demographics, prescription drug dispensing, physician services and hospitalizations were obtained from a US managed care database for women with osteoporosis who were dispensed an osteoporosis medication between 1997 and 2002. METHODS: Each subject's pattern of osteoporosis medication use was reconstructed using dispensing records. Subjects were considered compliant over a given period if their medication possession ratio (MPR) was >or=80% and gradients of compliance (<50% poor, 50-80% medium, 80-90% good, >90% excellent) were also examined. Using proportional hazards, the association between compliance over time and fracture rates was examined; Poisson regression was used for hospitalization and log-linear regression for medical costs. RESULTS: 38,120 women with osteoporosis were identified with a mean age of 66 years and an average follow-up of 1.7 years. Three quarters of them had an MPR below 80% when their entire follow-up was considered. Low compliance was associated with a 17% (95% CI 9-25%) increase in the fracture rate, adjusting for other known risk factors. Controlling for the specific drug regimen did not alter the association. Low compliance was also associated with a 37% (95% CI 32-43%) increase in the risk of all-cause hospitalization; and average monthly costs for all medical services combined were higher: 600 US dollars vs. 340 US dollars (P < 0.0001). Similar associations were observed when using the gradients of compliance. CONCLUSIONS: The desired goal of keeping patients with osteoporosis on chronic treatment is not being achieved adequately in actual practice and the potential social and economic implications of this behavior are substantial. Until compliance is improved, society will continue to fail in meeting an important public health goal.

Costs and medical care consequences associated with the diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is increasingly recognised as an indicator of disseminated atherothrombosis, but its impact on use of healthcare resources is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To provide a quantitative description of the resource utilisation and costs incurred following PAD. METHODS: Hospitalisations, physician visits and the corresponding direct medical costs were examined in 16,440 patients with a diagnosis of PAD (1985--1995) in Saskatchewan, Canada, and compared with 15,590 reference patients with a diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI) [1990--1995]. Medical history and patient characteristics were available retrospectively to January 1980 and follow-up to December 2000. Rates and timing of all-cause and cardiovascular hospitalisations and physician visits within discrete periods in the 10 years following PAD diagnosis, and 5 years following MI, were evaluated, as were lengths of stay and predictors of hospitalisation. RESULTS: Average follow-up was 5.9 years among patients with PAD and 3.6 years for MI. Half (55%) of patients with PAD were male versus 64% of reference patients. The mean ages were 67.3 and 66.9 years, respectively. Patients with PAD were hospitalised most frequently soon after diagnosis, with rates subsequently decreasing to 0.14 per month. These rates were similar in the reference group except for the period immediately following MI. The average 5-year cost post-diagnosis (2002 Can dollars) per patient was 41,968 Can dollars vs 48,578 Can dollars for the reference population. CONCLUSIONS: A diagnosis of PAD not only imposes a severe burden on patients and their families, but it also significantly increases the use of healthcare resources and the associated costs. By the end of year 1, this burden is comparable with a diagnosis of MI.

The morbidity and mortality following a diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease: long-term follow-up of a large database.

BACKGROUND: Awareness of the significance of peripheral arterial disease is increasing, but quantitative estimates of the ensuing burden and the impact of other risk factors remains limited. The objective of this study was to fill this need. METHODS: Morbidity and mortality were examined in 16,440 index patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease in Saskatchewan, Canada between 1985 and 1995. Medical history and patient characteristics were available retrospectively to January 1980 and follow-up was complete to March 1998. Crude and adjusted event rates were calculated and Kaplan-Meier survival curves estimated. Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted to examine the effect of risk factors on these rates. Patients suffering a myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke in Saskatchewan provided two reference populations. RESULTS: Half of the index patients were male; the majority was over age 65; 73% had at least one additional risk factor at index diagnosis; 10% suffered a subsequent stroke, another 10% a myocardial infarction, and 49% died within the mean follow-up of 5.9 years. Annual mortality (8.2%) was higher among patients with PAD than after a myocardial infarction (6.3%) but slightly lower than that in patients suffering a stroke (11.3%). Index patients with comorbid disease (e.g., diabetes) were at highest risk of death and other events. CONCLUSION: A diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease is critical evidence of more widespread atherothrombotic disease, with substantial risks of subsequent cardiovascular events and death. Given that the majority has additional comorbidities, these risks are further increased.

Estimating survival for cost-effectiveness analyses: a case study in atherothrombosis.

BACKGROUND: Economic evaluations typically require estimates of survival beyond the limited follow-up in clinical trials. The objective of this study was to demonstrate a data-driven approach to deriving these estimates. METHODS: To provide survival estimates for analyses of the CAPRIE trial, data were obtained from Saskatchewan on more than 50,000 patients like those in the trial: diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease (PAD), myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke between 1985 and 1995; follow-up to December 31, 2000. Mean survival was estimated by integrating the full survival curve derived by applying hazard functions over time. Cox proportional hazards analyses were carried out in each of four periods defined to ensure proportionality. RESULTS: Adjusting for mean age in CAPRIE, mean survival ranged from 12.1 years after index stroke to 13.6 years after diagnosis of PAD. Comorbidities reduced mean survival by 1 to 2 years. Subsequent events had a marked detrimental effect, decreasing life-expectancy by 50% or more, and disease in multiple vascular beds led to survival of less than 5 years. DISCUSSION: These analyses demonstrate the analytic methods required to accurately estimate survival. The trial ages were much lower than in the observational study. Thus, the estimates are optimistic for the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate valuation of interventions depends on valid survival estimates. These analyses confirm that survival is significantly reduced in patients with atherothrombotic disease, particularly with additional comorbidities.

The impact of compliance with osteoporosis therapy on fracture rates in actual practice.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have demonstrated that drug therapy can reduce osteoporosis-related fracture risk in women over 50 years of age. Noncompliance could considerably limit the effectiveness observed in actual practice, however. The objective of this study was therefore to estimate fracture risk in relation to compliance with osteoporosis medication in actual practice. METHODS: Demographic, prescription drug use, physician services, and hospitalization information for women with osteoporosis who were dispensed an osteoporosis medication between 1996 and 2001 was obtained from the Saskatchewan health data files. Compliance to treatment was defined as drug available to cover 80% of the time. Subsequent fractures were identified via hospitalizations or physician contacts with a relevant diagnostic or procedure code. The risk of fractures in relation to compliance was examined using a Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates. The impact of other patient characteristics, including age, having suffered a prior fracture, and prior use of osteoporosis medication and steroids, was also examined. RESULTS: 11,249 women suffering from osteoporosis were identified with a mean age at the time of the index prescription of 68.4 years and average follow-up of 2 years. The overall fracture rate was 4.5% per year. Patients who complied experienced a 16% lower fracture rate. This association was maintained within subgroups and after controlling for other patient characteristics that independently predict the fracture rate. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that improving compliance in actual practice may significantly decrease osteoporosis-related fracture risk.

Economic evaluation of galantamine in the treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is estimated to affect up to 11% of those aged > or =65 years in the United States, and the number of patients with AD is predicted to increase over the next few decades as the population ages. The substantial social and economic burden associated with AD is well established, with the cost of management increasing as the disease progresses. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic impact of galantamine 16 and 24 mg/d relative to no pharmacologic treatment in the management of mild to moderate AD in the United States based on the concept of need for full-time care (FTC). METHODS: Calculations were made using the Assessment of Health Economics in Alzheimer's Disease model, which applies predictive equations to estimate the need for FTC and the associated costs. The predictive equations were developed from longitudinal data on patients with AD. Inputs to the equations were derived by analyzing the data from 2 randomized, placebo-controlled, galantamine clinical trials. Resource use (from a payer perspective) was estimated from US clinical trial data, and costs were estimated from several US databases. Analyses were carried out over 10 years, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In the base case, 3.9 to 4.6 patients need to start treatment with galantamine to avoid 1 year of FTC, depending on dose. Treated patients spent 7% to 8% more time pre-FTC and 12% to 14% less time requiring FTC, resulting in savings of 2408 to 3601 US dollars. Time horizons below 3 years, very high discontinuation rates, or increased survival with galantamine reversed the savings. Conversely, limiting treatment to responders delayed FTC by 6 to 7 months, with savings of approximately 9097 to 11,578 US dollars. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that use of galantamine in patients with AD in the United States could reduce the use of costly resources such as formal home care and nursing homes, leading to cost savings over time.