Supporting policy and practice in Ontario through ICES' Applied Health Research Question (AHRQ) program.

ICES upholds a strong reputation for generating high-quality evidence to inform policy and practice through its collaborations with a broad range of health system stakeholders including government policymakers and healthcare providers including clinicians. Supported by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Ministry of Long-Term Care, the ICES Applied Health Research Question (AHRQ) Program leverages the data holdings and, scientific and clinical expertise to generate evidence tailored to the information needs of requestors. This paper outlines the approach, process, strengths, challenges and the resulting influence and impact to the healthcare landscape in Ontario.

Estimated surge in hospital and intensive care admission because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, local hospitals need to anticipate a surge in health care needs. We examined the modelled surge because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that was used to inform the early hospital-level response against cases as they transpired. METHODS: To estimate hospital-level surge in March and April 2020, we simulated a range of scenarios of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using the best available data at the time. We applied outputs to hospital-specific data to estimate surge over 6 weeks at 2 hospitals (St. Michael's Hospital and St. Joseph's Health Centre). We examined multiple scenarios, wherein the default (R0 = 2.4) resembled the early trajectory (to Mar. 25, 2020), and compared the default model projections with observed COVID-19 admissions in each hospital from Mar. 25 to May 6, 2020. RESULTS: For the hospitals to remain below non-ICU bed capacity, the default pessimistic scenario required a reduction in non-COVID-19 inpatient care by 38% and 28%, respectively, with St. Michael's Hospital requiring 40 new ICU beds and St. Joseph's Health Centre reducing its ICU beds for non-COVID-19 care by 6%. The absolute difference between default-projected and observed census of inpatients with COVID-19 at each hospital was less than 20 from Mar. 25 to Apr. 11; projected and observed cases diverged widely thereafter. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. INTERPRETATION: Scenario-based analyses were reliable in estimating short-term cases, but would require frequent re-analyses. Distribution of the city's surge was expected to vary across hospitals, and community-level strategies were key to mitigating each hospital's surge.

Pivoting data and analytic capacity to support Ontario's COVID-19 response.

Introduction: Health care systems have faced unprecedented challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to timely population-based data has been vital to informing public health policy and practice. Methods: We describe how ICES, an independent not-for-profit research and analytic institute in Ontario, Canada, pivoted existing research infrastructure and engaged health system stakeholders to provide near real-time population-based data and analytics to support Ontario's COVID-19 pandemic response. Results: Since April 2020, ICES provided the Ontario COVID-19 Provincial Command Table and public health partners with regular and ad hoc reports on SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 vaccine coverage. These reports: 1) helped identify congregate care/shared living settings that needed testing and prevention efforts early in the pandemic; 2) provided early indications of inequities in testing and infection in marginalized neighbourhoods, including areas with higher proportions of immigrants and visible minorities; 3) identified areas with high test positivity, which helped Public Health Units target and evaluate prevention efforts; and 4) contributed to altering the province's COVID-19 vaccine roll-out strategy to target high-risk neighbourhoods and helping Public Health Units and community organizations plan local vaccination programs. In addition, ICES is a key component of the Ontario Health Data Platform, which provides scientists with data access to conduct COVID-19 research and analyses. Discussion and Conclusion: ICES was well-positioned to provide rapid analyses for decision-makers to respond to the evolving public health emergency, and continues to contribute to Ontario's pandemic response by providing timely, relevant reports to health system stakeholders and facilitating data access for externally-funded COVID-19 research.

Increasing Access to Health Administrative Data with ICES Data & Analytic Services.

The Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) is one of only a few organizations in Ontario permitted to access, link and analyze health administrative data for the purpose of generating evidence to inform decisions in policy and practice. Although ICES is a leading research institute, its access to the data has historically been restricted to scientists with an ICES affiliation. This requirement, designed to meet ICES' data privacy and security obligations, created barriers with respect to the widespread use of Ontario's data assets. In 2014, as part of the government's commitment to the Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research, ICES launched the Data & Analytic Services platform, which is aimed at increasing access to data and analytic services to investigators external to ICES. In making the data widely available to the broader research community, this initiative engages investigators involved in front-line care, stimulates new avenues of research and fosters collaboration that was previously challenging or unfeasible.

Maternal folic acid supplementation modulates DNA methylation and gene expression in the rat offspring in a gestation period-dependent and organ-specific manner.

Maternal folic acid supplementation can alter DNA methylation and gene expression in the developing fetus, which may confer disease susceptibility later in life. We determined which gestation period and organ were most sensitive to the modifying effect of folic acid supplementation during pregnancy on DNA methylation and gene expression in the offspring. Pregnant rats were randomized to a control diet throughout pregnancy; folic acid supplementation at 2.5× the control during the 1st, 2nd or 3rd week of gestation only; or folic acid supplementation throughout pregnancy. The brain, liver, kidney and colon from newborn pups were analyzed for folate concentrations, global DNA methylation and gene expression of the Igf2, Er-α, Gr, Ppar-α and Ppar-γ genes. Folic acid supplementation during the 2nd or 3rd week gestation or throughout pregnancy significantly increased brain folate concentrations (P<.001), while only folic acid supplementation throughout pregnancy significantly increased liver folate concentrations (P=.005), in newborn pups. Brain global DNA methylation incrementally decreased from early to late gestational folic acid supplementation and was the lowest with folic acid supplementation throughout pregnancy (P=.026). Folic acid supplementation in late gestation or throughout pregnancy significantly decreased Er-α, Gr and Ppar-α gene expression in the liver (P<.05). The kidney and colon were resistant to the effect of folic acid supplementation. Maternal folic acid supplementation affects tissue folate concentrations, DNA methylation and gene expression in the offspring in a gestation-period-dependent and organ-specific manner.

Folic Acid Supplementation Adversely Affects Chemosensitivity of Colon Cancer Cells to 5-fluorouracil.

Folic acid (FA) fortification and widespread supplemental use have significantly increased folate status in North America. Furthermore, >50% of colorectal cancer patients use FA supplement. The increased folate status may interfere with cancer chemotherapy. We investigated the effect of FA supplementation on chemosensitivity of human colon cancer cells to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) using a xenograft model. Mice harboring human HCT116 colon cancer xenografts were randomized to receive the control, or 4× or 12.5× supplemental levels of FA. Within each diet group, mice were randomized to receive 5-FU+leucovorin or saline and xenograft growth and characteristics were determined. The expression of genes involved in folate metabolism and cancer treatment was determined. FA supplementation and 5-FU significantly interacted to influence xenograft growth (P < 0.007). At the control level, 5-FU significantly inhibited the growth of the xenografts (P < 0.0001). However, at the 4× supplemental level, 5-FU-treated xenografts grew faster than untreated xenografts (P = 0.048) while at the 12.5× supplemental level, 5-FU exhibited no effect. Cell proliferation, degree of necrosis, and expression of the selected genes did not significantly differ by the supplemental levels of FA. Our data suggest that FA supplementation may be detrimental to 5-FU chemotherapy of colon cancer and pose public health concern.

Folic acid supplementation promotes mammary tumor progression in a rat model.

Folic acid supplementation may prevent the development of cancer in normal tissues but may promote the progression of established (pre)neoplastic lesions. However, whether or not folic acid supplementation can promote the progression of established (pre)neoplastic mammary lesions is unknown. This is a critically important issue because breast cancer patients and survivors in North America are likely exposed to high levels of folic acid owing to folic acid fortification and widespread supplemental use after cancer diagnosis. We investigated whether folic acid supplementation can promote the progression of established mammary tumors. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were placed on a control diet and mammary tumors were initiated with 7,12-dimethylbenza[a]anthracene at puberty. When the sentinel tumor reached a predefined size, rats were randomized to receive a diet containing the control, 2.5x, 4x, or 5x supplemental levels of folic acid for up to 12 weeks. The sentinel mammary tumor growth was monitored weekly. At necropsy, the sentinel and all other mammary tumors were analyzed histologically. The effect of folic acid supplementation on the expression of proteins involved in proliferation, apoptosis, and mammary tumorigenesis was determined in representative sentinel adenocarcinomas. Although no clear dose-response relationship was observed, folic acid supplementation significantly promoted the progression of the sentinel mammary tumors and was associated with significantly higher sentinel mammary tumor weight and volume compared with the control diet. Furthermore, folic acid supplementation was associated with significantly higher weight and volume of all mammary tumors. The most significant and consistent mammary tumor-promoting effect was observed with the 2.5x supplemental level of folic acid. Folic acid supplementation was also associated with an increased expression of BAX, PARP, and HER2. Our data suggest that folic acid supplementation may promote the progression of established mammary tumors. The potential tumor-promoting effect of folic acid supplementation in breast cancer patients and survivors needs further clarification.