Estimation and Prediction of Case Fatality Rates, Recovery-to-Death Ratio of COVID-19 Disease during the Second Wave in Bangladesh / Estimativa e previsão de taxas de letalidade, taxa de recuperação / óbito da doença COVID-19 durante a segunda onda em Bangladesh

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the CFR and RDR of COVID-19 disease during the second wave in Bangladesh and also intended to predict the trend of COVID-19 infected and death cases, case fatality rate (CFR) and recovery-to-death ratio (RDR) using Facebook Prophet Model (FPM). Methods: Daily time series data of COVID-19 cases for 512 days used in this study was taken from worldometer. The FPM was used to predict the daily infections, deaths, CFR, and RDR of COVID-19 disease in Bangladesh as of August 01, 2021. Results: About 71% male and 29% female people were infected, most susceptible age group to be infected was 21 to 30 (27.6%) and below 10 (2.9%) was the least infected group as of August 01, 2021. The oldest age group (>60) was the most endanger to death (55.2%) and the youngest (<10) was the least death (0.3%) age group. Overall CFR was found at 1.654% which is less than the world CFR (2.13%) on August 01, 2021. The RDR was estimated at 52.269 which is below the world RDR 42.36 on August 01, 2021, in Bangladesh. Predicted infections and deaths exhibited an upward trend, daily CFR designates roughly constant trend, and daily RDR indicates a downward trend in Bangladesh at this ongoing second wave. Conclusion: The male people are more prone to be infected and dead. The oldest age group is more threatened to death and the youngest is least due to COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Both the predicted infections and deaths increasing, daily CFRs are roughly constant and daily RDR is decreasing in the second wave in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objetivos: Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar o CFR e RDR da doença COVID-19 durante a segunda onda em Bangladesh e também prever a tendência de casos de infecção e morte por COVID-19, taxa de letalidade (CFR) e taxa de mortalidade de recuperação (RDR) usando o Facebook Prophet Model (FPM). Métodos: Dados de séries temporais diárias dos casos COVID-19 para 512 dias usados neste estudo foram retirados do worldometer. O FPM foi usado para prever as infecções diárias, mortes, CFR e RDR da doença COVID-19 em Bangladesh a partir de 01 de agosto de 2021. Resultados: Cerca de 71% dos homens e 29% das mulheres estavam infectados. A faixa etária mais suscetível a ser infectada era de 21 a 30 (27,6%) e abaixo de 10 (2,9%) era o grupo menos infectado em 01 de agosto de 2021. O mais velho A faixa etária (> 60) era a que apresentava maior risco de morte (55,2%) e a mais jovem (<10) era a com menor risco de morte (0,3%). O CFR geral foi encontrado em 1,654%, que é menor do que o CFR mundial (2,13%) em 01 de agosto de 2021. O RDR foi estimado em 52,269, que está abaixo do RDR mundial de 42,36 em 01 de agosto de 2021, em Bangladesh. As infecções e mortes previstas exibiram uma tendência ascendente, o CFR diário indica uma tendência quase constante e o RDR diário indica uma tendência descendente em Bangladesh nesta segunda onda em curso. Conclusão: Os homens são mais propensos a serem infectados e mortos. A faixa etária mais velha está mais ameaçada de morte e a mais jovem é a menos devido ao COVID-19 em Bangladesh. Tanto as infecções previstas quanto as mortes aumentam, os CFRs diários são quase constantes e o RDR diário está diminuindo na segunda onda em Bangladesh devido à pandemia de COVID-19.

An Islamic Microfinance Approach to Scaling up the Economic Life of Vulnerable People with HIV/AIDS in the Muslim Society.

People with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) commonly pose problems to their family as well as to society because of their vulnerable health and economic conditions. Contrarily, PLWHA encounter social discrimination and adverse realities while finding it difficult to continue in their jobs. These complex phenomena interact to push them into a low economic status. A microfinance program can hopefully assist poor patients to cope with the negative economic consequences of this disease. But the conventional market-oriented microfinance institutions show reluctance to serve this group of people due to the possibilities of having credit risk. In this paper, we propose an alternative microfinancing technique that can provide a better economic life of the PLWHA while absorbing the credit risks. A comprehensive model is designed using specific Islamic financial instruments in conjugation with household economic portfolio theory. Critical realism method was adopted to construct this model. We concluded that the application of Islamic microfinance can enhance income of HIV patients while reducing the productivity-loss. This model can be useful to the microfinance practitioners and policymakers for addressing a different market segment, diversifying products, and formulating policy.

Effect of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms on warfarin dose requirement in Bangladeshi population.

Warfarin, an oral anticoagulant is one of the most widely prescribed drugs in modern medicine. Large inter-individuals variability due to age, gender, diet, concurrent drug interactions and variations in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes make the management of warfarin therapy challenging and yet no study has been conducted on the Bangladeshi population. The aim of the study was to identify the role of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms in Bangladeshi population in dose requirement of warfarin. We studied 87 heart valve replacement patients who were prescribed warfarin for minimum of 6 months with a target International normalized ratio of 2.0-3.5. Genotyping of VKORC1rs9923231 (-1639 G>A), CYP2C9*2 and CYP2C9*3 was performed by Polymerase Chain Reaction- Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism. The frequencies of GG, AG and AA genotypes of VKORC1rs9923231 in the studied population were 87.4%, 8%, and 4.6% respectively whereas the frequencies of the CYP2C9*1/3 and CYP2C9*3/3 were 4.6% and 3.4% respectively. The CYP2C9*2 was not found in the studied population. The results of this study indicate that comparatively higher daily maintenance doses of warfarin were required to achieve the target INR for patients carrying both GG genotype of VKORC1rs9923231 and wild type variant of CYP2C9*3 whereas minimum dose were required for patient having AA genotype of VKORC1rs9923231 and *3/*3 variant of CYP2C9.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among rural Bangladeshi women.

We assessed prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in rural women of Bangladesh using 1485 women aged ≥15 years. The prevalence rate of MS was 31.25% (NCEP ATP III modified). And 85.05% population had low HDL values. These findings are important in the development of future health prevention strategies in Bangladesh.

Estrogen receptor alpha and beta are both involved in the cerebral VEGF/Akt/NO pathway and cerebral angiogenesis in female mice.

We have previously demonstrated that vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is critical for cerebral angiogenesis in middle-aged female rats and may play a role in the flow-preserving neuroprotective actions of estrogen through its angiogenic and antiapoptotic properties. Here, we attempt to elucidate the effects of estrogen and the specific estrogen receptor (ER) subtype in cerebral VEGF/Akt/NO pathways and cerebral angiogenesis using 15-week old female mice that are either wild-type (WT), lack estrogen receptor α (ERαKO) or ß (ERßKO). Protein levels of VEGF and basic signaling molecules of VEGF angiogenic pathway in the frontal cortex were expressed as follows, as revealed by ELISA and immunoblotting : a) VEGF; WT: ERαKO: ERßKO, 47 ± 15: 27 ± 5: 28 ± 5 pg/mg, respectively (P < 0.01); b) KDR decreased about 40% in both ERαKO and ERßKO compared to WT; c) Akt was significantly down-regulated in both ERαKO and ERßKO compared to WT; d) phosphorylated Akt (pAkt); WT: ERαKO: ERßKO, 0.6 ± 0.2: 0.3 ± 0.01: 0.3 ± 0.1 units/mg, respectively; e) phosphorylated eNOS significantly decreased about 45% in both ERαKO and ERßKO compared to WT. Cerebral capillary density decreased in both ERαKO and ERßKO compared to WT. Thus, it can be concluded that in female mice, VEGF/Akt/eNOS pathway plays an important role in cerebral angiogenesis and that both ER subtypes are involved in the regulation of VEGF and its signaling molecule expression in the frontal cortex.