Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Drought-exposure history increases complementarity between plant species in response to a subsequent drought.

Growing threats from extreme climatic events and biodiversity loss have raised concerns about their interactive consequences for ecosystem functioning. Evidence suggests biodiversity can buffer ecosystem functioning during such climatic events. However, whether exposure to extreme climatic events will strengthen the biodiversity-dependent buffering effects for future generations remains elusive. We assess such transgenerational effects by exposing experimental grassland communities to eight recurrent summer droughts versus ambient conditions in the field. Seed offspring of 12 species are then subjected to a subsequent drought event in the glasshouse, grown individually, in monocultures or in 2-species mixtures. Comparing productivity between mixtures and monocultures, drought-selected plants show greater between-species complementarity than ambient-selected plants when recovering from the subsequent drought, causing stronger biodiversity effects on productivity and better recovery of drought-selected mixtures after the drought. These findings suggest exposure to recurrent climatic events can improve ecosystem responses to future events through transgenerational reinforcement of species complementarity.

The role of climate, foliar stoichiometry and plant diversity on ecosystem carbon balance.

Global change is affecting terrestrial carbon (C) balances. The effect of climate on ecosystem C balance has been largely explored, but the roles of other concurrently changing factors, such as diversity and nutrient availability, remain elusive. We used eddy-covariance C-flux measurements from 62 ecosystems from which we compiled information on climate, ecosystem type, stand age, species abundance and foliar concentrations of N and P of the main species, to assess their importance in the ecosystem C balance. Climate and productivity were the main determinants of ecosystem C balance and its stability. In P-rich sites, increasing N was related to increased gross primary production and respiration and vice versa, but reduced net C uptake. Our analyses did not provide evidence for a strong relation between ecosystem diversity and their productivity and stability. Nonetheless, these results suggest that nutrient imbalances and, potentially, diversity loss may alter future global C balance.

Interactive effects between plant functional types and soil factors on tundra species diversity and community composition.

Plant communities are coupled with abiotic factors, as species diversity and community composition both respond to and influence climate and soil characteristics. Interactions between vegetation and abiotic factors depend on plant functional types (PFT) as different growth forms will have differential responses to and effects on site characteristics. However, despite the importance of different PFT for community assembly and ecosystem functioning, research has mainly focused on vascular plants. Here, we established a set of observational plots in two contrasting habitats in northeastern Siberia in order to assess the relationship between species diversity and community composition with soil variables, as well as the relationship between vegetation cover and species diversity for two PFT (nonvascular and vascular). We found that nonvascular species diversity decreased with soil acidity and moisture and, to a lesser extent, with soil temperature and active layer thickness. In contrast, no such correlation was found for vascular species diversity. Differences in community composition were found mainly along soil acidity and moisture gradients. However, the proportion of variation in composition explained by the measured soil variables was much lower for nonvascular than for vascular species when considering the PFT separately. We also found different relationships between vegetation cover and species diversity according the PFT and habitat. In support of niche differentiation theory, species diversity and community composition were related to edaphic factors. The distinct relationships found for nonvascular and vascular species suggest the importance of considering multiple PFT when assessing species diversity and composition and their interaction with edaphic factors. Synthesis: Identifying vegetation responses to edaphic factors is a first step toward a better understanding of vegetation-soil feedbacks under climate change. Our results suggest that incorporating differential responses of PFT is important for predicting vegetation shifts, primary productivity, and in turn, ecosystem functioning in a changing climate.