Temporal change in urban fish biodiversity-Gains, losses, and drivers of change.

Our aim was to examine temporal change in alpha and beta diversity of freshwater fish communities in rivers that have urbanized over the same period to understand the influence of changes in land use and river connectivity on community change. We used biological (2001-2018), land use (2000-2015), and connectivity data (1987-2017) from Toronto, Ontario, Canada. We used linear mixed effects models to determine the strength of upstream land use, connectivity, and their changes over time to explain temporal change in alpha and beta diversity indices. We examined beta diversity using the temporal beta diversity index (TBI) to assess site-specific community change. The TBI was partitioned into gains and losses, and species-specific changes in abundance were assessed using paired t-tests. There were more gains than losses across the study sites as measured by TBI. We found little to no significant differences in species-specific abundances at aggregated spatial scales (study region, watershed, stream order). We found different relationships between landscape and connectivity variables with the biodiversity indices tested; however, almost all estimated confidence intervals overlapped with zero and had low goodness-of-fit. More fish biodiversity gains than losses were found across the study region, as measured by TBI. We found TBI to be a useful indicator of change as it identifies key sites to further investigate. We found two high value TBI sites gained non-native species, and one site shifted from a cool-water to warm-water species dominated community, both of which have management implications. Upstream catchment land use and connectivity had poor explanatory power for change in the measured biodiversity indices. Ultimately, such spatial-temporal datasets are invaluable and can reveal trends in biodiversity useful for environmental management when considering competing interests involved with urban sprawl in the ongoing "Decade on Restoration."

Can fish species co-occurrence patterns be predicted by their trait dissimilarities?

Trait-based analyses have been successful in determining and predicting species association outcomes in diverse communities. Most studies have limited the scope of this approach to the biotic responses of a small number of species or geographical regions. We focused on determining whether three biologically relevant traits (body size, temperature preference and trophic level) influence the patterns of co-occurrence between multiple species. We used fish species presence/absence from 9204 lakes in Ontario, Canada, to obtain effect sizes of 2001 species-pair co-occurrence values, using a null model approach. Euclidean distances between each species-pair were calculated for each of the three traits selected. Multiple regression models and randomization tests were used to determine the direction and significance of the relationship of each trait with the observed co-occurrence values. The results show that species temperature preference was significantly related to co-occurrence patterns, indicating the effect of environmental filtering. Trophic level was significantly related to co-occurrence values for both linear and quadratic terms, suggesting that segregation between species is driven by large differences in this trait (predation effects). Unexpectedly, body size was not significantly related to the observed co-occurrence patterns. We provide a new approach to test relationships between species assemblages and trait conditions.

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients.

Models applying space-for-time substitution, including those projecting ecological responses to climate change, generally assume an elevational and latitudinal equivalence that is rarely tested. However, a mismatch may lead to different capacities for providing climatic refuge to dispersing species. We compiled community data on zooplankton, ectothermic animals that form the consumer basis of most aquatic food webs, from over 1200 mountain lakes and ponds across western North America to assess biodiversity along geographic temperature gradients spanning nearly 3750 m elevation and 30° latitude. Species richness, phylogenetic relationships, and functional diversity all showed contrasting responses across gradients, with richness metrics plateauing at low elevations but exhibiting intermediate latitudinal maxima. The nonmonotonic/hump-shaped diversity trends with latitude emerged from geographic interactions, including weaker latitudinal relationships at higher elevations (i.e. in alpine lakes) linked to different underlying drivers. Here, divergent patterns of phylogenetic and functional trait dispersion indicate shifting roles of environmental filters and limiting similarity in the assembly of communities with increasing elevation and latitude. We further tested whether gradients showed common responses to warmer temperatures and found that mean annual (but not seasonal) temperatures predicted elevational richness patterns but failed to capture consistent trends with latitude, meaning that predictions of how climate change will influence diversity also differ between gradients. Contrasting responses to elevation- and latitude-driven warming suggest different limits on climatic refugia and likely greater barriers to northward range expansion.

Putting the Mantel test back together again.

The Mantel test has been widely used in ecology and evolution, but over the last two decades it has been frequently critiqued because results were inconsistent with expectations and there were issues with Type I (false-positive) and Type II (false-negative) error rates. Three-matrix extensions of the Mantel test have been challenged for similar reasons. Even the null hypotheses underlying the Mantel test have been questioned. As a result, use of the Mantel test and its variants has been discouraged or limited to special situations. Here, we examine Mantel test criticisms including the lack of agreement between traditional variable-based Pearson correlations (r) and observation-based Mantel correlations (rm ), and the unusual Type I and Type II error rates. We propose an alternate proximity measure that resolves these issues. We use simulations and examples to contrast Mantel results based on Euclidean distance, squared Euclidean distance, and the simple difference (Diff) with traditional bivariate Pearson correlations. We demonstrate that use of the simple difference in Mantel tests can resolve the underlying problems with poor agreement between bivariate Pearson and Mantel correlations, as well as appropriate Type I and Type II errors (i.e., where r = cor(x,y) and rm = cor(dx ,dy ), if dx = Diff(x) and dy = Diff(y), r = rm ). We also show that the simple difference can provide solutions to issues with partial Mantel tests and distance-based MANOVA. Because our results resolve many of the issues with Mantel tests, we hope that these findings will restore the popularity of the Mantel test.

Microplastic contamination in Great Lakes fish.

Freshwater ecosystems, generally adjacent to human population and more contaminated relative to adjacent marine ecosystems, are vulnerable to microplastic contamination. We sampled 7 species of fish from Lake Ontario and Lake Superior and assessed their gastrointestinal (GI) tracts to quantify ingested microplastics and other anthropogenic particles. A subset of the microparticles were chemically analyzed to confirm polymer types and anthropogenic origins. We documented the highest concentration of microplastics and other anthropogenic microparticles ever reported in bony fish. We found 12,442 anthropogenic microparticles across 212 fish (8 species) from nearshore Lake Ontario, 943 across 50 fish (1 species) from Humber River, and 3094 across 119 fish (7 species) from Lake Superior. Fish from Lake Ontario had the greatest mean abundance of anthropogenic microparticles in their GI tracts (59 particles/fish [SD 104]), with up to 915 microparticles in a single fish. Fish from Lake Superior contained a mean [SD] of 26 [74] particles/fish, and fish from Humber River contained 19 [14] particles/fish. Most particles were microfibers. Overall, ≥90% of particles were anthropogenic, of which 35-59% were microplastics. Polyethylene (24%), polyethylene terephthalate (20%), and polypropylene (18%) were the most common microplastics. Ingestion of anthropogenic particles was significantly different among species within Lake Ontario (p < 0.05), and the abundance of anthropogenic particles increased as fish length increased in Lake Ontario (ρ = 0.62). Although we cannot extrapolate the concentration of microplastics in the water and sediments of these fish, the relatively high abundance of microplastics in the GI tracts of fish suggests environmental exposure may be above threshold concentrations for risk.

Contaminación por Microplásticos en Peces de los Grandes Lagos Resumen Los ecosistemas de agua dulce, generalmente contiguos a poblaciones humanas y más contaminados en relación con los ecosistemas marinos adyacentes, son vulnerables a la contaminación por microplásticos. Muestreamos siete especies de peces del Lago Ontario y del Lago Superior y analizamos sus tractos gastrointestinales (GI) para cuantificar los microplásticos ingeridos, además de otras partículas antropogénicas. Un subconjunto de las micropartículas fue analizado químicamente para confirmar los tipos de polímero y los orígenes antropogénicos. Documentamos la concentración más alta de microplásticos y de otras micropartículas antropogénicas jamás reportada en peces óseos. Encontramos 12,442 micropartículas antropogénicas en 212 peces (ocho especies) del Lago Ontario, 943 en 50 peces (una especie) en el Río Humber y 30,094 en 119 peces (siete especies) del Lago Superior. Los peces del Lago Ontario tuvieron la mayor abundancia promedio de micropartículas antropogénicas en sus tractos GI (59 partículas/pez [DS 104]), con hasta 915 micropartículas en un solo pez. Los peces del Lago Superior tuvieron un promedio [DS] de 26 [74] partículas/pez y los peces del Río Humber tuvieron 19 [14] partículas/pez. La mayoría de las partículas eran microfibras. En general, ≥90% de las partículas eran antropogénicas, de las cuales el 35-39% eran microplásticos. El polietileno (24%), el tereftalato de polietileno (20%) y el polipropileno (18%) fueron los microplásticos más comunes. La ingesta de partículas antropogénicas tuvo una diferencia significativa entre las especies del Lago Ontario (p < 0.05) y la abundancia de las partículas antropogénicas incrementó conforme aumentó la longitud de los peces en el Lago Ontario (ρ = 0.62). Aunque no podemos extrapolar la concentración de microplásticos en el agua y los sedimentos para estos peces, la abundancia relativamente alta de microplásticos en los tractos GI de los peces sugiere que la exposición ambiental puede estar por encima del umbral de concentraciones para el riesgo.

Abiotic factors influence species co-occurrence patterns of lake fishes.

Abiotic factors are recognized for their strong influence on community structure. Habitat diversity is related to resource availability that influences species richness and abundance. In lakes, surface area and depth have been used as measures of the size and diversity of habitat, and have strong effects on the structure of entire communities. We tested whether abiotic variables, related to habitat size, influence co-occurrence patterns of species pairs of fishes by analysing groups of lakes within a specific area and depth categories in two regions in Ontario, Canada. We used null models to obtain co-occurrence patterns and standard effect sizes for each species pair within each area and depth category. We estimated standard effect sizes relative to lake area or depth and determined whether species co-occurrence patterns change systematically as these measures of habitat increase. We evaluated groups of species where factors such as predation and habitat filtering have been shown to structure those assemblages, and we tested whether area and depth alter the species associations and our interpretation of these relationships. We found significant differences between the observed and expected distributions of regression slopes relating co-occurrences to area and depth in both regions across all species, which indicated the strong influence of both variables on the overall co-occurrence patterns. We observed a significant negative trend of the co-occurrence patterns across lake area categories for the predator-prey species, indicating that the effect of predation was stronger in smaller lakes, but it was reduced in larger lakes, possibly due to increased habitat and resource availability. We show that pooling results as done in standard community null models can lead to Type II errors due to the 'cancellation' of opposing ecological signals. Our results demonstrate the effect of environmental variables on species co-occurrence patterns, but the divergent results obtained between geographical regions suggest that such patterns are context-dependent. This study emphasizes the importance of considering abiotic factors in null models of species co-occurrence to obtain reliable and detailed information about the association patterns between species.

Los factores abióticos son reconocidos por su fuerte influencia en la estructura de comunidades. La diversidad de habitats está relacionado con la disponibilidad de recursos que a su vez influencia la riqueza y abundancia de especies. En los lagos, el área de superficie y la profundidad son factores empleados como medida de tamaño y diversidad del habitat, que a su vez tienen fuertes efectos en la estructura de comunidades enteras. En este estudio, probamos si las variables abióticas, relacionadas con tamaño de habitat, influencian los patrones de co-ocurrencia en pares de especies de peces mediante el análisis de lagos agrupados dentro de específicas categorías de área y profundidad en dos regiones en Ontario, Canadá. Hicimos uso de modelos nulos para obtener patrones de co-ocurrencia y tamaños de efecto estándar para cada par de especies dentro de cada categoría de área y profundidad. Se estimo el tamaño de efecto estándar relacionado con el área y profundidad de los lagos y se determine si los patrones de co-ocurrencia cambiaban de forma sistemática con el incremento del tamaño del habitat. Evaluamos grupos de especies en donde ha sido observado el efecto de depredación o filtro del habitat sobre la estructura de esos ensamblajes y probamos si el área o la profundidad influían sobre la asociación entre especies y nuestra interpretación de esas estructuras. Encontramos diferencias significativas entre las distribuciones de pendientes observadas y esperada, relacionando co-ocurrencia con área y profundidad, en ambas regiones y para todas las especies, lo cual indica en general una fuerte influencia de ambas variables sobre el patrón general de co-ocurrencia. Se observo una tendencia negativa significativa de los patrones de co-ocurrencia en las categorías de área para los pares de especies de depredador-presa, lo cual indica que el efecto de depredación fue más fuerte en lagos pequeños, pero este efecto disminuyo en lagos más grandes, posiblemente debido al aumento de habitats y recursos disponibles. De esta manera mostramos que al combinar resultados, como se ha hecho de forma típica en estudios de modelos nulos en comunidades, se puede incurrir en error de tipo II debido a la cancelación de señales ecológicas opuestas. Nuestros resultados demuestran el efecto de variables ambientales en patrones de co-ocurrencia de especies, pero los resultados divergentes obtenidos entre las regiones geográficas sugieren que estos patrones son contexto-dependientes. Este estudio hace énfasis en la importancia de considerar los factores abióticos en estudios de co-ocurrencia de especies para así obtener información confiable y detallada sobre los patrones de asociación entre especies.

Shifting trophic control of fishery-ecosystem dynamics following biological invasions.

Increasing human population size and mobility have accelerated the translocation of nonnative species globally, which has become a major threat to conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Introduced species can disrupt species interactions of the recipient ecosystem, triggering system-wide events, and amplify or dampen effects of existing pressures. We show how two pervasive intercontinental invasive consumers in North American lakes, dreissenids (filter-feeding mussels) and Bythotrephes (carnivorous zooplankton), nonlinearly modify consumer-resource dynamics and undermine management interventions to rebuild cold-water predatory fish biomass. Synthesizing 30 yr (1986-2015) of lake-wide monitoring data with a dynamic mass-balance food-web model (consisting of 61 species and trophic groups), we reconstructed historical food-web dynamics of Lake Simcoe, a large, temperate lake in Ontario, Canada that has shifted from a turbid to clear-water state. We then analyzed patterns of biomass fluctuations of three recreationally harvested, ecologically connected populations; lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush, a piscivore), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, a benthivore), and cisco (C. artedi, a planktivore) before and after the invasions by testing hypotheses on their delayed recoveries under management interventions-predator manipulations (fishery removal and stocking) and nutrient (phosphorus) load reduction. Analyses suggest that fishery harvest primarily regulated early recovery trajectories of the piscivore and planktivore, weakening top-down control prior to the establishment of the invasive consumers. By contrast, the benthivore biomass patterns were shaped, in part, by the invasive mussels (via diet shift), independently of management actions. Although improved water quality (with reduced hypoxia in deeper water) and, in turn, higher macrophyte production are projected to expand the predation refuge for young fish, intensified planktivory (by Bythotrephes) and herbivory (by dreissenids) have triggered shifts in community composition (from pelagic to demersal dominance). These system-wide shifts, in turn, have substantially diminished ecosystem productivity, thereby shrinking fishery yields. Novel consumers can rewire food webs, disrupt energy flows, and suppress predator recoveries, underscoring the need to account for altered ecological reality when sustainably managing fishery resources in invaded ecosystems.

Climate warming moderates the impacts of introduced sportfish on multiple dimensions of prey biodiversity.

Human-assisted introductions of exotic species are a leading cause of anthropogenic change in biodiversity; however, context dependencies and interactions with co-occurring stressors impede our ability to predict their ecological impacts. The legacy of historical sportfish stocking in mountainous regions of western North America creates a unique, natural quasiexperiment to investigate factors moderating invasion impacts on native communities across broad geographic and environmental gradients. Here we synthesize fish stocking records and zooplankton relative abundance for 685 mountain lakes and ponds in the Cascade and Canadian Rocky Mountain Ranges, to reveal the effects of predatory sportfish introduction on multiple taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions of prey biodiversity. We demonstrate an innovative analytical approach, combining exploratory random forest machine learning with confirmatory multigroup analysis using multivariate partial least-squares structural equation models, to generate and test hypotheses concerning environmental moderation of stocking impacts. We discovered distinct effects of stocking across different dimensions of diversity, including negligible (nonsignificant) impacts on local taxonomic richness (i.e. alpha diversity) and trophic structure, in contrast to significant declines in compositional uniqueness (i.e. beta diversity) and body size. Furthermore, we found that stocking impacts were moderated by cross-scale interactions with climate and climate-related land-cover variables (e.g. factors linked to treeline position and glaciers). Interactions with physical morphometric and lithological factors were generally of lesser importance, though catchment slope and habitat size constraints were relevant in certain dimensions. Finally, applying space-for-time substitution, a strong antagonistic (i.e. dampening) interaction between sportfish predation and warmer temperatures suggests redundancy of their size-selective effects, meaning that warming will lessen the consequences of introductions in the future and stocked lakes may be less impacted by subsequent warming. While both stressors drive biotic homogenization, our results have important implications for fisheries managers weighing the costs/benefits of stocking-or removing established non-native populations-under a rapidly changing climate.

Fishing down then up the food web of an invaded lake.

Analysis of commercial catches reveals a serial depletion of some oceanic fish stocks over time, resulting in fisheries focusing on increasingly smaller species closer to the base of the food chain. This effect, described as fishing down the marine food web, is observed when the trophic level of the catch declines over time, raising concerns about the ecosystem impacts of fishing. Freshwater systems also experience harvest, yet do not appear to commonly show the same fishing down response perhaps because time series are too short to witness early depletions, fishing is often recreational, or other factors like stocking and invasive species influence patterns. Here we make use of extensive catch records from Lake Simcoe dating back to the 1860s, to examine if fishing down effects are observed in this highly exploited Canadian inland lake. We measured 2 commonly used indicators from catch data, mean trophic level (MTL) and fishing-in-balance (FiB), and compared trends between a historical period dominated by commercial fishing and a contemporary period when commercial fishing ceased and recreational fishing effort increased. We found a striking difference between the 2 time periods, with MTL (and to some extent FiB) declining during commercial fishing but increasing during recreational fishing. However, indicators either increased or decreased due to invasive species and increased due to stocking. We show that while declining MTL can occur in a freshwater lake, the trajectory can be altered by a switch to recreational fishing, as well as stocking and invasive species.

Assessing the impacts of imperfect detection on estimates of diversity and community structure through multispecies occupancy modeling.

Detecting all species in a given survey is challenging, regardless of sampling effort. This issue, more commonly known as imperfect detection, can have negative impacts on data quality and interpretation, most notably leading to false absences for rare or difficult-to-detect species. It is important that this issue be addressed, as estimates of species richness are critical to many areas of ecological research and management. In this study, we set out to determine the impacts of imperfect detection, and decisions about thresholds for inclusion in occupancy, on estimates of species richness and community structure. We collected data from a stream fish assemblage in Algonquin Provincial Park to be used as a representation of ecological communities. We then used multispecies occupancy modeling to estimate species-specific occurrence probabilities while accounting for imperfect detection, thus creating a more informed dataset. This dataset was then compared to the original to see where differences occurred. In our analyses, we demonstrated that imperfect detection can lead to large changes in estimates of species richness at the site level and summarized differences in the community structure and sampling locations, represented through correspondence analyses.

Impacts of temperature and selected chemical digestion methods on microplastic particles.

Alkaline and wet peroxide oxidation chemical digestion techniques used to extract microplastics from organic matrices were assessed for recoveries and for impacts on ability to identify polymer types. Methods using wet peroxide oxidation generated enough heat to result in the complete loss of some types of microplastic particles, and boiling tests confirmed that temperatures >70 °C were responsible for the losses. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) confirmed minimal alteration of the recovered polymers by the applied methods. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:91-98. © 2017 SETAC.

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10-5, both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

The vulnerability of species to range expansions by predators can be predicted using historical species associations and body size.

Climate change threatens species directly through environmental changes and indirectly through its effects on species interactions. We need tools to predict which species are most vulnerable to these threats. Pairwise species associations and body size are simple but promising predictors of the relative impact of species introduced outside of their historical ranges. We examined the vulnerability of 30 fish species to the impacts of three centrarchid predators that are being introduced to lakes north of their historical range boundaries. Species that were negatively associated with each centrarchid in their historical range were more likely to be lost from lakes with centrarchid introductions. Total body length was most important in predicting impact for the most gape-limited predator. At the regional scale, our method identifies those species most vulnerable to introductions facilitated by climate change and can easily be applied to a range of taxa undergoing range expansions.

The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario, Canada.

There is a poor understanding of the importance of biotic interactions in determining species distributions with climate change. Theory from invasion biology suggests that the success of species introductions outside of their historical ranges may be either positively (biotic acceptance) or negatively (biotic resistance) related to native biodiversity. Using data on fish community composition from two survey periods separated by approximately 28 years during which climate was warming, we examined the factors influencing the establishment of three predatory centrarchids: Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu), Largemouth Bass (M. salmoides), and Rock Bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in lakes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario. Variance partitioning demonstrated that, at a regional scale, abiotic factors play a stronger role in determining the establishment of these species than biotic factors. Pairing lakes within watersheds where each species had established with lakes sharing similar abiotic conditions where the species had not established revealed both positive and negative relationships between the establishment of centrarchids and the historical presence of other predatory species. The establishment of these species near their northern range boundaries is primarily determined by abiotic factors at a regional scale; however, biotic factors become important at the lake-to-lake scale. Studies of exotic species invasions have previously highlighted how spatial scale mediates the importance of abiotic vs. biotic factors on species establishment. Our study demonstrates how concepts from invasion biology can inform our understanding of the factors controlling species distributions with changing climate.

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada).

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.

Testing of the effect of missing data estimation and distribution in morphometric multivariate data analyses.

Missing data are an unavoidable problem in biological data sets and the performance of missing data deletion and estimation techniques in morphometric data sets is poorly understood. Here, a novel method is used to measure the introduced error of multiple techniques on a representative sample. A large sample of extant crocodilian skulls was measured and analyzed with principal component analysis (PCA). Twenty-three different proportions of missing data were introduced into the data set, estimated, analyzed, and compared with the original result using Procrustes superimposition. Previous work investigating the effects of missing data input missing values randomly, a non-biological phenomenon. Here, missing data were introduced into the data set using three methodologies: purely at random, as a function of the Euclidean distance between respective measurements (simulating anatomical regions), and as a function of the portion of the sample occupied by each taxon (simulating unequal missing data in rare taxa). Gower's distance was found to be the best performing non-estimation method, and Bayesian PCA the best performing estimation method. Specimens of the taxa with small sample sizes and those most morphologically disparate had the highest estimation error. Distribution of missing data had a significant effect on the estimation error for almost all methods and proportions. Taxonomically biased missing data tended to show similar trends to random, but with higher error rates. Anatomically biased missing data showed a much greater deviation from random than the taxonomic bias, and with magnitudes dependent on the estimation method.

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Functional-diversity indices can be driven by methodological choices and species richness.

Functional diversity is an important concept in community ecology because it captures information on functional traits absent in measures of species diversity. One popular method of measuring functional diversity is the dendrogram-based method, FD. To calculate FD, a variety of methodological choices are required, and it has been debated about whether biological conclusions are sensitive to such choices. We studied the probability that conclusions regarding FD were sensitive, and that patterns in sensitivity were related to alpha and beta components of species richness. We developed a randomization procedure that iteratively calculated FD by assigning species into two assemblages and calculating the probability that the community with higher FD varied across methods. We found evidence of sensitivity in all five communities we examined, ranging from a probability of sensitivity of 0 (no sensitivity) to 0.976 (almost completely sensitive). Variations in these probabilities were driven by differences in alpha diversity between assemblages and not by beta diversity. Importantly, FD was most sensitive when it was most useful (i.e., when differences in alpha diversity were low). We demonstrate that trends in functional-diversity analyses can be largely driven by methodological choices or species richness, rather than functional trait information alone.

Uncertainty analysis of dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls-related toxic equivalents in fish.

The toxic equivalent (TEQ) concept is widely used to assess toxicity potential of a dioxin-like chemical mixture. The TEQ approach converts concentrations of various dioxin-like compounds into a single concentration that is toxicologically equivalent to the most toxic dioxin compound, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD), using toxic equivalency factors (TEFs). It has been shown that in the absence of costly measurements of dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) in fish, relatively inexpensive measurements of total PCB can be utilized to estimate dl-PCB-related TEQ (i.e., TEQ(dl-PCB)). The present study assesses the impacts of uncertainties in dl-PCB measurements and estimates, and mammalian TEFs on TEQ(dl-PCB) using the Monte Carlo technique. The analysis suggests that measurement errors for dl-PCBs translate into up to 1.3-fold uncertainty in TEQ(dl-PCB), while uncertainties in estimates of dl-PCBs generally produce up to a threefold uncertainty in TEQ(dl-PCB). In contrast, the uncertainty due to TEFs normally ranges 10- to 13-fold and spans over 30- to 40-fold under extreme cases. For 2005 TEFs, PCB-126 is the dominating contributor to uncertainty in TEQ(dl-PCB). When we considered uncertainties in the TEFs and estimated dl-PCB concentrations simultaneously, there was little increase in uncertainty in TEQ(dl-PCB) that was already produced by the TEFs only. These results indicate that the dl-PCB composition in fish and/or the relationship between total PCB and TEQ(dl-PCB) can be utilized to estimate TEQ(dl-PCB) with reasonable confidence.

Estimating dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl toxic equivalents from total polychlorinated biphenyl measurements in fish.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are 209 related compounds, a dozen of which are known as dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) and are among the most toxic PCBs. Polychlorinated biphenyls contribute to many adverse effects to human health, including cancer, and are a major cause of fish advisories in North America. It is a common perception that individual PCB compounds, especially dl-PCBs, rather than total PCB need to be quantified to predict the environmental hazard because of differences in their toxicity potential and distribution among various environmental matrices, including aquatic food webs. Because the current analytical methods for quantifying dl-PCBs are complex and four- to fivefold more expensive, limited fish samples are analyzed for dl-PCBs. Using what likely is the largest dl-PCB fish data set (n = 912) with a wide distribution of fish species (n = 22), size (19-112 cm), weight (100-14,300 g), sex (male:female, 51:49), and PCB contamination level (20-7,300 ng/g wet wt), we show that the comparatively less expensive and rapid measurements of total PCB in fish can be utilized to assess dl-PCB-related toxicological hazard, measured as 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxic equivalents (TEQ). A regression equation of dl-PCB-related TEQ (i.e., TEQdl-PCB) to total PCB in fish is presented (TEQdi-PCB = [2.56 x 10(-5)]CtotalPCB, r = 0.89, p < 0.001). The regression was evaluated by applying it to three independent data sets of substantial sizes (n = 55, 141, and 176). The TEQdl-PCB estimated using the regression and total PCB measurements were within a reasonable factor of two to three of the TEQdl-PCB calculated from the dl-PCB measurements. The successful evaluation indicates versatility of the regression.