Utilizing shared frailty with the Cox proportional hazards regression: Post discharge survival analysis of CHF patients.

Understanding patients' survival probability as well as the factors affecting it constitute a significant concern for researchers and practitioners, in particular for patients with severe chronic illnesses such as congestive heart failure (CHF). CHF is a clinical syndrome characterized by comorbidities and adverse medical events. Risk stratification to identify patients most likely to die shortly after hospital discharge can improve the quality of care by better allocating organizational resources and personalized interventions. Probability assessment improves clinical decision-making, contributes to personalized care, and saves costs. Although one of the most informative indices is the time to an adverse event for each patient, commonly analyzed using survival analysis methods, these are often challenging to implement due to the complexity of the medical data. Numerous studies have used the Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression method to generate the survival distribution pattern and factors affecting survival. This model, although advantageous for survival analysis, assumes the homogeneity of the hazard ratio across patients and independence of the observations in terms of survival time. These assumptions are often violated in real-world data, especially when the dataset is composed of readmission data for chronically ill patients, since these recurring observations are inherently dependent. This study ran the Cox PH regression on a feature set selected by machine learning algorithms from a rich hospital dataset. The event modeled here was patient mortality within 90 days post-hospital discharge. The sample was composed of medical records of patients hospitalized in the Israeli Sheba Medical Center more than once, with CHF as the primary diagnosis. We modeled the survival of CHF patients using the Cox PH regression with and without the shared frailty correction that addresses the shortcomings of the Cox Model. The results of the two models of the Cox PH regression - with and without the shared frailty correction were compared. The results demonstrate that the shared frailty correction, which was statistically significant in our analysis, improved the performance of the basic Cox PH model. While this is the main contribution, we also show that this model outperforms two commonly used measures (ADHERE and EFFECT) for predicting early mortality of CHF patients. Thus, the results illustrate how applying advanced analytics can outperform traditional methods. An additional contribution is the feature set selected using machine-learning methods that is different from those used in the extant literature.

Stratifying individuals into non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk levels using time series machine learning models.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects 25% of the population worldwide, and its prevalence is anticipated to increase globally. While most NAFLD patients are asymptomatic, NAFLD may progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Research reports, with daunting results, show the challenge that NAFLD's burden causes to global population health. The current process for identifying fibrosis risk levels is inefficient, expensive, does not cover all potential populations, and does not identify the risk in time. Instead of invasive liver biopsies, we implemented a non-invasive fibrosis assessment process calculated from clinical data (accessed via EMRs/EHRs). We stratified patients' risks for fibrosis from 2007 to 2017 by modeling the risk in 5579 individuals. The process involved time-series machine learning models (Hidden Markov Models and Group-Based Trajectory Models) profiled fibrosis risk by modeling patients' latent medical status resulted in three groups. The high-risk group had abnormal lab test values and a higher prevalence of chronic conditions. This study can help overcome the inefficient, traditional process of detecting fibrosis via biopsies (that are also medically unfeasible due to their invasive nature, the medical resources involved, and costs) at early stages. Thus longitudinal risk assessment may be used to make population-specific medical recommendations targeting early detection of high risk patients, to avoid the development of fibrosis disease and its complications as well as decrease healthcare costs.

COVID-19, government measures and hospitality industry performance.

This study explores the interplay between public measures adopted by the U.S. government to combat COVID-19 and the performance of the American hospitality industry. The recent global pandemic is a natural experiment for exploring the role of government interventions and their direct impact on hospitality stock returns in the U.S. financial market. Overall, our findings show that most of the government interventions were associated with a negative response in the returns of the hospitality industry, a response that became more negative as the COVID-19 pandemic evolved. Similar patterns were also detected for other industries such as entertainment and transportation that are closely related to hospitality. The findings we document are fundamental to understanding the trends and fluctuations in hospitality stocks in the current crisis and any similar crisis in the future.