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1.
J Family Med Prim Care ; 13(5): 2037-2043, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38948635

RESUMO

Background: Hypertension is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, affecting over one billion people. It is responsible for roughly half of all heart disease and stroke-related deaths globally. Because hypertension does not cause any symptoms on its own, it is commonly referred to as "the silent killer." Objective: This study aimed to determine (1) the prevalence of hypertension and its associated risk factors and (2) the level of awareness of hypertension status among study participants. Material and Methods: A facility-based cross-sectional analytical study was conducted for 3 months during January-March 2023 at the teaching institution in Etawah District, Uttar Pradesh. It was conducted among 392 study participants who were ≥18 years old. Data were collected through a predesigned, pretested, semi-structured questionnaire, and anthropometric measurement was determined using standard guidelines. Results: The overall prevalence of hypertension screening was 69.4% (male: 33.8% and female: 66.2%), respectively. The majority of hypertensives were found in female participants. Tobacco and alcohol consumption, obesity, physical inactivity, stress and strain, and an unhealthy diet were also associated with hypertension. Among 392 study participants, only 67 (24.6%) were aware of their hypertension status. Conclusion: We conclude that hypertension has been described as an "Iceberg disease" as those who suffer are usually unaware and hence usually seek healthcare services at a very late stage. Preventive measures should be needed to improve hypertension screening, awareness, treatment, and control.

2.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1822, 2024 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38977988

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the extent and patterns of disparities in COVID-19 mortality throughout the pandemic. We aimed to examine trends in disparities by demographics over variants in the pre- and post-vaccine availability period among Californian workers using a social determinants of health lens. METHODS: Using death certificates, we identified all COVID-19 deaths that occurred between January 2020 and May 2022 among workers aged 18-64 years in California (CA). We derived estimates for at-risk worker populations using the Current Population Survey. The waves of COVID-19 mortality in the pre-vaccine availability period were March 2020-June 2020 (wave 1), and July 2020-November 2020 (wave 2), and in the post-vaccine availability period: December 2020-May 2021 (wave 3), June 2021-January 2022 (wave 4), and February 2022-May 2022 (wave 5). Poisson regression models with robust standard errors were used to determine wave-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs). We examined the change in MRR across waves by including an interaction term between each demographic characteristic and wave period in different models. The role of potential misclassification of Race/ethnicity on death certificates was examined using probabilistic quantitative bias analysis as sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Among the 24.1 million working age CA population included in the study, there were 26,068 COVID-19 deaths in the period between January 2020 and May 2022. Compared with their respective reference groups, workers who were 50-64 years old, male, Native Hawaiian, Latino, or African American, foreign-born; individuals who had lower education; and unmarried were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 mortality. While disparities by sex, race/ethnicity and foreign-born status narrowed in later waves (post-vaccine availability), disparities by age, education level and marital status did not change substantially across waves. CONCLUSION: Demographic disparities in COVID-19 mortality narrowed in the post-vaccine availability waves. However, the existence of disparities across all waves of the pandemic, even in an era of widespread vaccine coverage, could indicate remaining gaps in prevention and differential vulnerability. Addressing the underlying social, structural, and occupational factors that contribute to these disparities is critical for achieving health equity.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , California/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde
3.
Cureus ; 16(4): e58844, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38784317

RESUMO

Introduction Diabetes is a long-term condition that necessitates ongoing medical attention and self-care to prevent immediate complications and minimize the likelihood of long-term issues. Early diagnosis is one of the most important steps for people living with diabetes to take. Public awareness regarding the importance of lifestyle modification in managing type 2 diabetes mellitus is a crucial preventive measure. Despite continuous efforts to raise public awareness, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes continues to increase, with most people overlooking the importance of a healthy lifestyle. Our goal was to assess the impact of lifestyle modification on glycemic control in newly diagnosed diabetic patients. Materials and methods A total of 503 adults aged 30 years and above who were nondiabetic or were unaware of their diabetic status were assessed for their fasting blood glucose levels. Individuals identified as diabetic based on their fasting blood glucose levels were subjected to lifestyle modification for a period of three months. Glycemic levels were measured at the beginning and the end of the study period for comparison. Results Of the study participants, 7.6% were undiagnosed diabetics with increased blood sugar levels who were unaware of their diabetic status. Mean anthropometric measurements from pre- to postintervention values improved overall. Overall reduction was observed in weight (66.21±12.97 to 63.18±11.48), waist circumference (96.21±13.01 to 91.77±11.82), hip circumference (105.16±11.91 to 103.58±10.88), waist-hip ratio (0.91±0.09 to 0.88±0.08) and body mass index (27.48±6.04 to 26.18±5.30). Significant reductions were observed in the mean glycemic values, including fasting blood sugar (180.19±55.81 to 152.56±45.74) and glycosylated hemoglobin levels (8.61±1.97 to 6.68±1.67). Conclusion Lifestyle modification plays a crucial role in managing diabetes, both in preventing its onset and controlling its progression. The present study highlights the importance of early diagnosis and lifestyle interventions in the management of diabetes, thereby stressing the necessity of comprehensive strategies to combat this situation.

4.
Health Aff (Millwood) ; 43(5): 632-640, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38709962

RESUMO

In March 2021, California implemented a vaccine equity policy that prioritized COVID-19 vaccine allocation to communities identified as least advantaged by an area-based socioeconomic measure, the Healthy Places Index. We conducted quasi-experimental and counterfactual analyses to estimate the effect of this policy on COVID-19 vaccination, case, hospitalization, and death rates. Among prioritized communities, vaccination rates increased 28.4 percent after policy implementation. Furthermore, an estimated 160,892 COVID-19 cases, 10,248 hospitalizations, and 679 deaths in the least-advantaged communities were averted by the policy. Despite these improvements, the share of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in prioritized communities remained elevated. These estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses that tested exchangeability between prioritized communities and those not prioritized by the policy; model specifications; and potential temporal confounders, including prior infections. Correcting for disparities by strategically allocating limited resources to the least-advantaged or most-affected communities can reduce the impacts of COVID-19 and other diseases but might not eliminate health disparities.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Política de Saúde , Hospitalização , Humanos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/mortalidade , California/epidemiologia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Equidade em Saúde , Feminino , SARS-CoV-2 , Masculino , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
5.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 24(1): 120, 2024 May 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38802749

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To describe the methodology for conducting the CalScope study, a remote, population-based survey launched by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and understand COVID-19 disease burden in California. METHODS: Between April 2021 and August 2022, 666,857 randomly selected households were invited by mail to complete an online survey and at-home test kit for up to one adult and one child. A gift card was given for each completed survey and test kit. Multiple customized REDCap databases were used to create a data system which provided task automation and scalable data management through API integrations. Support infrastructure was developed to manage follow-up for participant questions and a communications plan was used for outreach through local partners. RESULTS: Across 3 waves, 32,671 out of 666,857 (4.9%) households registered, 6.3% by phone using an interactive voice response (IVR) system and 95.7% in English. Overall, 25,488 (78.0%) households completed surveys, while 23,396 (71.6%) households returned blood samples for testing. Support requests (n = 5,807) received through the web-based form (36.3%), by email (34.1%), and voicemail (29.7%) were mostly concerned with the test kit (31.6%), test result (26.8%), and gift card (21.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring a well-integrated and scalable data system, responsive support infrastructure for participant follow-up, and appropriate academic and local health department partnerships for study management and communication allowed for successful rollout of a large population-based survey. Remote data collection utilizing online surveys and at-home test kits can complement routine surveillance data for a state health department.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Teste em Amostras de Sangue Seco , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , California/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Teste em Amostras de Sangue Seco/métodos , Teste em Amostras de Sangue Seco/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Inquéritos e Questionários , Masculino , Feminino , Criança , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente
6.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0301070, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38771784

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe the implementation of a test-negative design case-control study in California during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Test-negative case-control study. METHODS: Between February 24, 2021 - February 24, 2022, a team of 34 interviewers called 38,470 Californians, enrolling 1,885 that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cases) and 1,871 testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 (controls) for 20-minute telephone survey. We estimated adjusted odds ratios for answering the phone and consenting to participate using mixed effects logistic regression. We used a web-based anonymous survey to compile interviewer experiences. RESULTS: Cases had 1.29-fold (95% CI: 1.24-1.35) higher adjusted odds of answering the phone and 1.69-fold (1.56-1.83) higher adjusted odds of consenting to participate compared to controls. Calls placed from 4pm to 6pm had the highest adjusted odds of being answered. Some interviewers experienced mental wellness challenges interacting with participants with physical (e.g., food, shelter, etc.) and emotional (e.g., grief counseling) needs, and enduring verbal harassment from individuals called. CONCLUSIONS: Calls placed during afternoon hours may optimize response rate when enrolling controls to a case-control study during a public health emergency response. Proactive check-ins and continual collection of interviewer experience(s) and may help maintain mental wellbeing of investigation workforce. Remaining adaptive to the dynamic needs of the investigation team is critical to a successful study, especially in emergent public health crises, like that represented by the COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Telefone , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/psicologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , California/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pandemias , Adolescente , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Teste para COVID-19/métodos
7.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(8): 175-179, 2024 Feb 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38421946

RESUMO

Surveillance data can provide rapid, within-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates to guide public health recommendations. Mandatory reporting of influenza vaccine administration to California's immunization information registry began January 1, 2023, and mandatory reporting of all influenza laboratory test results, including negative results, was instituted in California on June 15, 2023. These data, collected by the California Department of Public Health during October 1, 2023-January 31, 2024, were used to calculate interim influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza by comparing the odds of vaccination among case-patients (persons who received a positive influenza laboratory test result) and control patients (those who received a negative influenza laboratory test result). VE was calculated as 1 - adjusted odds ratio using mixed-effects logistic regression, with age, race, and ethnicity as fixed effects and specimen collection week and county as random effects. Overall, during October 1, 2023-January 31, 2024, estimated VE was 45% among persons aged ≥6 months, 56% among children and adolescents aged 6 months-17 years, 48% among adults aged 18-49 years, 36% among those aged 50-64 years, and 30% among those aged ≥65 years. Consistent with some previous influenza seasons, influenza vaccination provided moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza among infants, children, adolescents, and adults. All persons aged ≥6 months without a contraindication to vaccination should receive annual influenza vaccination to reduce influenza illness, severe influenza, and strain on health care resources. Influenza vaccination remains the best way to prevent influenza.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra Influenza , Influenza Humana , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Lactente , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Eficácia de Vacinas , Vacinação , California/epidemiologia
8.
Health Equity ; 8(1): 32-38, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38250304

RESUMO

Introduction: Lack of childcare has been linked to missed health care appointments for adult women, especially for lower-income women. The COVID-19 pandemic created additional stressors for many low-income families that already struggled to meet childcare and health care needs. By exploring the experiences of women who were referred for childcare services at a U.S. safety-net health system, we aimed to understand the challenges women faced in managing their health and childcare needs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We conducted semistructured interviews with participants in Dallas County, TX between August 2021 and February 2022. All participants were referred from women's health clinics at the county's safety-net hospital system to an on-site drop-off childcare center by hospital staff who identified lack of childcare as a barrier to health care access. Participants were the primary caregiver for at least one child ≤age 13. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. We analyzed data using thematic content analysis. Results: We interviewed 22 participants (mean age 34); participants were adult women, had on average 3 children, and primarily identified as Hispanic or African American. Three interrelated themes emerged: disruptions in access, competing priorities, and exacerbated psychological distress. Conclusions: Findings demonstrate how low-income women with young children in a safety-net health system struggle to address their own health needs amid childcare and other household demands. Our study advances our understanding of childcare as a social domain of health, a necessary step to inform how we build structural support systems and drive policy interventions.

9.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 30(1): 136-140, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38147063

RESUMO

We assessed tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic delays among patients with TB and COVID-19 in California, USA. Among 58 persons, 43% experienced TB diagnostic delays, and a high proportion (83%) required hospitalization for TB. Even when viral respiratory pathogens circulate widely, timely TB diagnostic workup for at-risk persons remains critical for reducing TB-related illness.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Tuberculose , Humanos , Diagnóstico Tardio , COVID-19/diagnóstico , California/epidemiologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Teste para COVID-19
10.
Expert Opin Pharmacother ; 24(18): 2199-2210, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37955156

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Ertugliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor, seems to improve glycemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aim to evaluate the efficacy of Ertugliflozin across multiple time intervals (18, 26, and 52 weeks) in T2DM patients. METHODS: A literature search was conducted on electronic databases. Data was extracted from eligible studies at both 5 mg and 15 mg doses in monotherapy and as add-on therapy. Cochrane RevMan was used to perform the meta-analysis. RESULTS: Ertugliflozin, at both 5 mg and 15 mg doses, demonstrated a significant improvement in HbA1c levels at 18 weeks 5 mg [P = 0.00001], 15 mg [P = 0.05], and at 26 weeks in monotherapy 5 mg [P = 0.006], monotherapy 15 mg [P = 0.006], 5 mg as add-on therapy [P = 0.00001], 15 mg add-on therapy [P = 0.00001] respectively. At 52 weeks, the reduction in HbA1c was significant in 15 mg add-on therapy [P = 0.0001]. Additionally, ertugliflozin as an add-on therapy also led to a significant reduction in FPG, body weight, and systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSION: Ertugliflozin showed clinical efficacy in improving glycemic control, fasting plasma glucose, body weight, and systolic blood pressure in T2DM patients over the studied time intervals compared to placebo.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose , Humanos , Hipoglicemiantes/uso terapêutico , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose/uso terapêutico , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Compostos Bicíclicos Heterocíclicos com Pontes/uso terapêutico , Peso Corporal , Glicemia
11.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 10(9): ofad415, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37674629

RESUMO

Background: Uptake of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bivalent vaccines and the oral medication nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) has remained low across the United States. Assessing the public health impact of increasing uptake of these interventions in key risk groups can guide further public health resources and policy and determine what proportion of severe COVID-19 is avertable with these interventions. Methods: This modeling study used person-level data from the California Department of Public Health on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccine administration from 23 July 2022 to 23 January 2023. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model calibrated to recent historical data to predict future COVID-19 outcomes and modeled the impact of increasing uptake (up to 70% coverage) of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute illness in different risk groups. Risk groups were defined by age (≥50, ≥65, ≥75 years) and vaccination status (everyone, primary series only, previously vaccinated). We predicted the number of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and number needed to treat (NNT). Results: The model predicted that increased uptake of bivalent COVID-19 boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (up to 70% coverage) in all eligible persons could avert an estimated 15.7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 11.2%-20.7%; NNT: 17 310) and 23.5% (95% UI, 13.1%-30.0%; NNT: 67) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. In the high-risk group of persons ≥65 years old alone, increased uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir could avert an estimated 11.9% (95% UI, 8.4%-15.1%; NNT: 2757) and 22.8% (95% UI, 12.7%-29.2%; NNT: 50) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. Conclusions: These findings suggest that prioritizing uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir among older age groups (≥65 years) would be most effective (based on NNT) but would not address the entire burden of severe COVID-19.

12.
Ann Epidemiol ; 872023 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37714416

RESUMO

PURPOSE: To assess changes in the COVID-19 mortality rate and disparities over variants or waves by industry. METHODS: We identified COVID-19 deaths that occurred between January 2020 and May 2022 among California workers aged 18-64 years using death certificates, and estimated Californians at risk using the Current Population Survey. The waves in deaths were wave 1: March-June 2020, wave 2: July-November 2020, wave 3/Epsilon and Alpha variants: December 2020-May 2021, wave 4/Delta variant: June 2021-January 2022, and wave 5/Omicron variant: February-May 2022. We used Poisson regression to generate wave-specific mortality rate ratios (MRR) and included an interaction term between industry and wave in different models to assess significance of the change in MRR. RESULTS: In all waves of the pandemic, healthcare, other services, manufacturing, transportation, and retail trade industries had higher mortality rates than the professional, scientific, and technical industry. The healthcare industry had the highest relative rate earlier in the pandemic, while other services, utilities, and accommodation and food services industries had substantial increases in MRR in later waves. CONCLUSIONS: Industries that consistently had disproportionate COVID-19 mortality may have benefitted from protections that consider workers' increased exposure and vulnerability to severe outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , California/epidemiologia
13.
J Water Health ; 21(9): 1303-1317, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37756197

RESUMO

Monitoring for COVID-19 through wastewater has been used for adjunctive public health surveillance, with SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in wastewater correlating with incident cases in the same sewershed. However, the generalizability of these findings across sewersheds, laboratory methods, and time periods with changing variants and underlying population immunity has not been well described. The California Department of Public Health partnered with six wastewater treatment plants starting in January 2021 to monitor wastewater for SARS-CoV-2, with analyses performed at four laboratories. Using reported PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases within each sewershed, the relationship between case incidence rates and wastewater concentrations collected over 14 months was evaluated using Spearman's correlation and linear regression. Strong correlations were observed when wastewater concentrations and incidence rates were averaged (10- and 7-day moving window for wastewater and cases, respectively, ρ = 0.73-0.98 for N1 gene target). Correlations remained strong across three time periods with distinct circulating variants and vaccination rates (winter 2020-2021/Alpha, summer 2021/Delta, and winter 2021-2022/Omicron). Linear regression revealed that slopes of associations varied by the dominant variant of concern, sewershed, and laboratory (ß = 0.45-1.94). These findings support wastewater surveillance as an adjunctive public health tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2 community trends.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Águas Residuárias , Incidência , Vigilância Epidemiológica Baseada em Águas Residuárias , California/epidemiologia
14.
Environ Epidemiol ; 7(4): e254, 2023 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37545805

RESUMO

The frequency and severity of wildfires in the Western United States have increased over recent decades, motivating hypotheses that wildfires contribute to the incidence of coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the Western United States with sharp increases in incidence observed since 2000. While coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have occurred among wildland firefighters clearing brush, it remains unknown whether fires are associated with an increased incidence among the general population. Methods: We identified 19 wildfires occurring within California's highly endemic San Joaquin Valley between 2003 and 2015. Using geolocated surveillance records, we applied a synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of each wildfire on the incidence of coccidioidomycosis among residents that lived within a hexagonal buffer of 20 km radii surrounding the fire. Results: We did not detect excess cases due to wildfires in the 12 months (pooled estimated percent change in cases: 2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -29.0, 85.2), 13-24 months (7.9%; 95% CI = -27.3, 113.9), or 25-36 months (17.4%; 95% CI = -25.1, 157.1) following a wildfire. When examined individually, we detected significant increases in incidence following three of the 19 wildfires, all of which had relatively large adjacent populations, high transmission before the fire, and a burn area exceeding 5,000 acres. Discussion: We find limited evidence that wildfires drive increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence among the general population. Nevertheless, our results raise concerns that large fires in regions with ongoing local transmission of Coccidioides may be associated with increases in incidence, underscoring the need for field studies examining Coccidioides spp. in soils and air pre- and post-wildfires.

15.
medRxiv ; 2023 May 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37292707

RESUMO

Background: Uptake of COVID-19 bivalent vaccines and oral medication nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) has remained low across the United States. Assessing the public health impact of increasing uptake of these interventions in key risk groups can guide further public health resources and policy. Methods: This modeling study used person-level data from the California Department of Public Health on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccine administration from July 23, 2022 to January 23, 2023. We modeled the impact of additional uptake of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute illness in different risk groups defined by age (50+, 65+, 75+ years) and vaccination status (everyone, primary series only, previously vaccinated). We predicted the number of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and number needed to treat (NNT). Results: For both bivalent vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, the most efficient strategy (based on NNT) for averting severe COVID-19 was targeting the 75+ years group. We predicted that perfect coverage of bivalent boosters in the 75+ years group would avert 3,920 hospitalizations (95%UI: 2,491-4,882; 7.8% total averted; NNT 387) and 1,074 deaths (95%UI: 774-1,355; 16.2% total averted; NNT 1,410). Perfect uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in the 75+ years group would avert 5,644 hospitalizations (95%UI: 3,947-6,826; 11.2% total averted; NNT 11) and 1,669 deaths (95%UI: 1,053-2,038; 25.2% total averted; NNT 35). Conclusions: These findings suggest prioritizing uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir among the oldest age groups would be efficient and have substantial public health impact in reducing the burden of severe COVID-19, but would not address the entire burden of severe COVID-19.

16.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 782, 2023 04 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37118796

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the role of infectious disease forecasting in informing public policy. However, significant barriers remain for effectively linking infectious disease forecasts to public health decision making, including a lack of model validation. Forecasting model performance and accuracy should be evaluated retrospectively to understand under which conditions models were reliable and could be improved in the future. METHODS: Using archived forecasts from the California Department of Public Health's California COVID Assessment Tool ( https://calcat.covid19.ca.gov/cacovidmodels/ ), we compared how well different forecasting models predicted COVID-19 hospitalization census across California counties and regions during periods of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variant predominance. RESULTS: Based on mean absolute error estimates, forecasting models had variable performance across counties and through time. When accounting for model availability across counties and dates, some individual models performed consistently better than the ensemble model, but model rankings still differed across counties. Local transmission trends, variant prevalence, and county population size were informative predictors for determining which model performed best for a given county based on a random forest classification analysis. Overall, the ensemble model performed worse in less populous counties, in part because of fewer model contributors in these locations. CONCLUSIONS: Ensemble model predictions could be improved by incorporating geographic heterogeneity in model coverage and performance. Consistency in model reporting and improved model validation can strengthen the role of infectious disease forecasting in real-time public health decision making.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , California/epidemiologia , Política Pública , Tomada de Decisões , Hospitalização , Previsões
17.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(3): e0001252, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36989218

RESUMO

The first three SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic lineages classified as variants of concern (VOCs) in the United States (U.S.) from December 15, 2020 to February 28, 2021, Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Gamma (P.1) lineages, were initially detected internationally. This investigation examined available travel history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reported in the U.S. in whom laboratory testing showed one of these initial VOCs. Travel history, demographics, and health outcomes for a convenience sample of persons infected with a SARS-CoV-2 VOC from December 15, 2020 through February 28, 2021 were provided by 35 state and city health departments, and proportion reporting travel was calculated. Of 1,761 confirmed VOC cases analyzed, 1,368 had available data on travel history. Of those with data on travel history, 1,168 (85%) reported no travel preceding laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 and only 105 (8%) reported international travel during the 30 days preceding a positive SARS-CoV-2 test or symptom onset. International travel was reported by 92/1,304 (7%) of persons infected with the Alpha variant, 7/55 (22%) with Beta, and 5/9 (56%) with Gamma. Of the first three SARS-CoV-2 lineages designated as VOCs in the U.S., international travel was common only among the few Gamma cases. Most persons infected with Alpha and Beta variant reported no travel history, therefore, community transmission of these VOCs was likely common in the U.S. by March 2021. These findings underscore the importance of global surveillance using whole genome sequencing to detect and inform mitigation strategies for emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs.

18.
J Pediatr ; 261: 113333, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36736585

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between consolidation on chest radiograph and typical bacterial etiology of childhood community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the Etiology of Pneumonia in the Community study. STUDY DESIGN: Hospitalized children <18 years of age with CAP enrolled in the Etiology of Pneumonia in the Community study at 3 children's hospitals between January 2010 and June 2012 were included. Testing of blood and respiratory specimens used multiple modalities to identify typical and atypical bacterial, or viral infection. Study radiologists classified chest radiographs (consolidation, other infiltrates [interstitial and/or alveolar], pleural effusion) using modified World Health Organization pneumonia criteria. Infiltrate patterns were compared according to etiology of CAP. RESULTS: Among 2212 children, there were 1302 (59%) with consolidation with or without other infiltrates, 910 (41%) with other infiltrates, and 296 (13%) with pleural effusion. In 1795 children, at least 1 pathogen was detected. Among these patients, consolidation (74%) was the most frequently observed pattern (74% in typical bacterial CAP, 58% in atypical bacterial CAP, and 54% in viral CAP). Positive and negative predictive values of consolidation for typical bacterial CAP were 12% (95% CI 10%-15%) and 96% (95% CI 95%-97%) respectively. In a multivariable model, typical bacterial CAP was associated with pleural effusion (OR 7.3, 95% CI 4.7-11.2) and white blood cell ≥15 000/mL (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.2-4.9), and absence of wheeze (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8) or viral detection (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Consolidation predicted typical bacterial CAP poorly, but its absence made typical bacterial CAP unlikely. Pleural effusion was the best predictor of typical bacterial infection, but too uncommon to aid etiology prediction.


Assuntos
Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas , Derrame Pleural , Pneumonia , Radiologia , Humanos , Criança , Pneumonia/diagnóstico por imagem , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/etiologia , Radiografia , Derrame Pleural/diagnóstico por imagem , Derrame Pleural/etiologia , Causalidade , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/diagnóstico por imagem , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/etiologia
19.
Vaccine ; 41(10): 1649-1656, 2023 03 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36746740

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination remains suboptimal in the United States and other settings. Though early reports indicated that a strong majority of people were interested in receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the association between vaccine intention and uptake is not yet fully understood. Ourobjective was todescribe predictors of vaccine uptake, and estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of self-reported COVID-19 vaccine status compared to a comprehensive statewide COVID-19 vaccine registry. METHODS: A cohort of California residents that received a molecular test for SARS-CoV-2 infection during 24 February-5 December 2021 were enrolled in a telephone-administered survey. Survey participants were matched with records in a statewide immunization registry. Cox proportional hazards model were used to compare time to vaccination among those unvaccinated at survey enrollment by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination intention. RESULTS: Among 864 participants who were unvaccinated at the time of interview, 272 (31%) had documentation of receipt of COVID-19 vaccination at a later date; including 194/423 (45.9%) who had initially reported being willing to receive vaccination, 41/185 (22.2%) who reported being unsure about vaccination, and 37/278 (13.3%) who reported unwillingness to receive vaccination.Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for registry-confirmed COVID-19 vaccination were 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.32-0.76) and 0.21 (0.12-0.36) for participants expressing uncertainty and unwillingness to receive vaccination, respectively, as compared with participants who reported being willing to receive vaccination. Time to vaccination was shorter among participants from higher-income households (aHR = 3.30 [2.02-5.39]) and who reported co-morbidities or immunocompromising conditions (aHR = 1.54 [1.01-2.36]).Sensitivity of self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status was 82% (80-85%) overall, and 98% (97-99%) among those referencing vaccination records; specificity was 87% (86-89%). CONCLUSION: Willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccination was an imperfect predictor of real-world vaccine uptake. Improved messaging about COVID-19 vaccination regardless of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status may help improve uptake.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , Hesitação Vacinal , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinação , Sistema de Registros
20.
Am J Ind Med ; 66(3): 222-232, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36645337

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Recent studies have evaluated COVID-19 outbreaks and excess mortality by occupation sectors. Studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection across occupation and occupation-related factors remain lacking. In this study, we estimate the effect of in-person work on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and describe SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among working adults. METHODS: We used Wave 1 data (May to June 2021) from CalScope, a population-based seroprevalence study in California. Occupation data were coded using the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Industry and Occupation Computerized Coding System. Dried blood spot specimens were tested for antibodies to establish evidence of prior infection. We estimated the causal effect of in-person work on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk using the g-formula and describe SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence across occupation-related factors. RESULTS: Among 4335 working adults, 53% worked in person. In-person work was associated with increased risk of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (risk difference: 0.03; [95% CI: 0.02-0.04]) compared with working remotely. Workers that reported job loss or who were without medical insurance had higher evidence of prior infection. Amongst in-person workers, evidence of prior infection was highest within farming, fishing, and forestry (55%; [95% CI: 26%-81%]); installation, maintenance, and repair (23%; [12%-39%]); building and grounds cleaning and maintenance (23%; [13%-36%]); food preparation and serving related (22% [13%-35%]); and healthcare support (22%; [13%-34%]) occupations. Workers who identified as Latino, reported a household income of <$25K, or who were without a bachelor's degree also had higher evidence of prior infection. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection risk varies by occupation. Future vaccination strategies may consider prioritizing in-person workers.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Indústrias , Agricultura , Pessoal de Saúde
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