Financial Crises and Climate Change.

Climate change is a big challenge of our time. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, research on how financial crises affect climate change is limited. We empirically use the local projection method to empirically study the impact of past financial crises on climate change vulnerability and resilience indices. Using a dataset covering 178 countries over the period 1995-2019, we observe that resilience to climate change shocks has been increasing and that advanced economies are the least vulnerable. Our econometric results suggest that financial crises (particularly systematic banking ones) tend to lead to a short-run deterioration in a country's resilience to climate change. This effect is more pronounced in developing economies. In downturns, if an economy is hit by a financial crisis, vulnerability to climate change increases.

Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants.

In this paper, we estimate short- and long-term tax buoyancy for 44 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during 1980-2017 using time series and panel techniques. We find that the long-term tax buoyancy is either one or slightly above one for most SSA countries. Fragile states have a lower short-term tax buoyancy reflecting their institutional weaknesses. Short-term buoyancy of personal income tax is significantly less than one. Both short- and long-run tax responses are lower than those reported in previous cross-country studies, which can be interpreted as a reduced power of both automatic stabilization in the short run and fiscal sustainability in the long run. We find that central government debt and shadow economy exert a downward pressure on tax buoyancy. An important implication of these results is that the current tax systems in SSA would not be able to generate domestic revenues to the extent needed for financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment.

This paper analyzes the political economy causes of fiscal promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal objectives and actual realizations during planned fiscal expansions periods. Using a sample of 27 European Union countries between 1992 and 2015, we identify, by means of an "hybrid" narrative approach, 68 episodes of promised fiscal expansions. We show that expansionary promise gaps were sizeable (about 1.5-2.5% of GDP during an average fiscal expansion episode) and that initial and economic conditions matter in explaining their size. We also find that the more leftist a government is, the larger the expansionary promise gap. Governments facing weak opposition in the parliament and those more effective are characterized by smaller expansionary promise gaps. Regarding the importance of decentralization and the role played by subnational governments, the larger their capacity to influence national legislation and policy, the larger the promise gaps.

Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data.

The recent COVID-19 crisis has generated a concern that productivity (which was already at historically low levels) may further decline. From a theoretical standpoint, the recessions-total factor productivity (TFP) nexus is ambiguous à priori. This paper empirically examines the dynamic impact of recessions on TFP. We compute a new measure of utilization-adjusted productivity from a sample of 24 industries in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2014. Resorting to the local projection method we trace out the dynamic short to medium-term impact of such recessionary shocks. We find that deep recessions lead to a permanent deterioration in the level of total factor productivity. This effect is driven by the increase in resource misallocation across different sectors.

Suicide and unemployment: a panel analysis of Canadian provinces.

The objective of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between suicide and unemployment. We use panel data from Canadian provinces and use recent panel econometric techniques to account for endogenous structural breaks in both the unit root and cointegration testing procedures in order to account for statistical specification issues. We find that the relationship between unemployment and suicide is context dependent. We do find positive and statistically significant relationships, but only for males in particular provinces. The relationship between unemployment and suicide is not monolithic. Rather, relationships are not always as expected for different demographic groups and all places.