RESUMO
Disinformation campaigns are prevalent, affecting vaccination coverage, creating uncertainty in election results, and causing supply chain disruptions, among others. Unfortunately, the problems of misinformation and disinformation are exacerbated due to the wide availability of online platforms and social networks. Naturally, these emerging disinformation networks could lead users to engage with critical infrastructure systems in harmful ways, leading to broader adverse impacts. One such example involves the spread of false pricing information, which causes drastic and sudden changes in user commodity consumption behavior, leading to shortages. Given this, it is critical to address the following related questions: (i) How can we monitor the evolution of disinformation dissemination and its projected impacts on commodity consumption? (ii) What effects do the mitigation efforts of human intermediaries have on the performance of the infrastructure network subject to disinformation campaigns? (iii) How can we manage infrastructure network operations and counter disinformation in concert to avoid shortages and satisfy user demands? To answer these questions, we develop a hybrid approach that integrates an epidemiological model of disinformation spread (based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model, or SIR) with an efficient mixed-integer programming optimization model for infrastructure network performance. The goal of the optimization model is to determine the best protection and response actions against disinformation to minimize the general shortage of commodities at different nodes over time. The proposed model is illustrated with a case study involving a subset of the western US interconnection grid located in Los Angeles County in California.
