Why do seismic hazard models worldwide appear to overpredict historical intensity observations?

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) provide the scientific basis for building codes to reduce damage from earthquakes. Despite their substantial impact, little is known about how well PSHA predicts actual shaking. Recent PSHA for California, Japan, Italy, Nepal, and France appear to consistently overpredict historically observed earthquake shaking intensities. Numerical simulations show that observed shaking is equally likely to be above or below predictions. This result from independently developed models and datasets in different countries and tectonic settings indicates possible systematic bias in the hazard models, the observations, or both. Analysis of possible causes shows that much of the discrepancy is due to a subtle and rarely considered issue: the conversion equations used in comparing the models-which forecast shaking as peak ground acceleration or velocity-and observations-parameterizations of qualitative shaking reports. Historical shaking reports fill a crucial data gap, but more research is warranted on how qualitative observations relate to instrumental shaking measures for earthquakes.

Implementing Entrustable Professional Activities in Pediatric Fellowships: Facilitating the Process.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Entrustable professional activities (EPAs) will be used for initial certification by the American Board of Pediatrics by 2028. Less than half of pediatric fellowships currently use EPAs for assessment, yet all will need to adopt them. Our objectives were to identify facilitators and barriers to the implementation of EPAs to assess pediatric fellows and to determine fellowship program directors' (FPD) perceptions of EPAs and Milestones. METHODS: We conducted a survey of FPDs from 15 pediatric subspecialties. EPA users were asked about their implementation of EPAs, barriers encountered, and perceptions of EPAs. Nonusers were queried about deterrents to using EPAs. Both groups were asked about potential facilitators of implementation and their perceptions of Milestones. RESULTS: The response rate was 65% (575/883). Of these, 344 (59.8%) were EPA users and 231 (40.2%) were nonusers. Both groups indicated work burden as a barrier to implementation. Nonusers reported more barriers than users (mean [SD]: 7 [3.8] vs 5.8 [3.4], P < .001). Both groups identified training materials and premade assessment forms as facilitators to implementation. Users felt that EPAs were easier to understand than Milestones (89%) and better reflected what it meant to be a practicing subspecialty physician (90%). In contrast, nonusers felt that Milestones were easy to understand (57%) and reflected what it meant to be a practicing subspecialist (58%). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing EPA-based assessment will require a substantial investment by FPDs, facilitated by guidance and easily accessible resources provided by multiple organizations. Perceived barriers to be addressed include FPD time constraints, a need for additional assessment tools, and outcomes data.

Risk Factors for Pediatric Critical COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification is a cornerstone of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society COVID-19 treatment guidance. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to define the clinical characteristics and comorbidities associated with critical COVID-19 in children and adolescents. METHODS: Two independent reviewers screened the literature (Medline and EMBASE) for studies published through August 31, 2023, that reported outcome data on patients aged ≤21 years with COVID-19. Critical disease was defined as an invasive mechanical ventilation requirement, intensive care unit admission, or death. Random effects models were used to estimate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and heterogeneity was explored through subgroup analyses. RESULTS: Among 10,178 articles, 136 studies met the inclusion criteria for review. Data from 70 studies, which collectively examined 172,165 children and adolescents with COVID-19, were pooled for meta-analysis. In previously healthy children, the absolute risk of critical disease from COVID-19 was 4% (95% CI, 1%-10%). Compared with no comorbidities, the pooled OR for critical disease was 3.95 (95% CI, 2.78-5.63) for the presence of one comorbidity and 9.51 (95% CI, 5.62-16.06) for ≥2 comorbidities. Key risk factors included cardiovascular and neurological disorders, chronic pulmonary conditions (excluding asthma), diabetes, obesity, and immunocompromise, all with statistically significant ORs >2.00. CONCLUSIONS: While the absolute risk for critical COVID-19 in children and adolescents without underlying health conditions is relatively low, the presence of one or more comorbidities was associated with markedly increased risk. These findings support the importance of risk stratification in tailoring pediatric COVID-19 management.

IL-18-secreting multiantigen targeting CAR T cells eliminate antigen-low myeloma in an immunocompetent mouse model.

ABSTRACT: Multiple myeloma is a plasma cell malignancy that is currently incurable with conventional therapies. Following the success of CD19-targeted chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells in leukemia and lymphoma, CAR T cells targeting B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) more recently demonstrated impressive activity in relapsed and refractory myeloma patients. However, BCMA-directed therapy can fail due to weak expression of BCMA on myeloma cells, suggesting that novel approaches to better address this antigen-low disease may improve patient outcomes. We hypothesized that engineered secretion of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-18 (IL-18) and multiantigen targeting could improve CAR T-cell activity against BCMA-low myeloma. In a syngeneic murine model of myeloma, CAR T cells targeting the myeloma-associated antigens BCMA and B-cell activating factor receptor (BAFF-R) failed to eliminate myeloma when these antigens were weakly expressed, whereas IL-18-secreting CAR T cells targeting these antigens promoted myeloma clearance. IL-18-secreting CAR T cells developed an effector-like T-cell phenotype, promoted interferon-gamma production, reprogrammed the myeloma bone marrow microenvironment through type-I/II interferon signaling, and activated macrophages to mediate antimyeloma activity. Simultaneous targeting of weakly-expressed BCMA and BAFF-R with dual-CAR T cells enhanced T-cell:target-cell avidity, increased overall CAR signal strength, and stimulated antimyeloma activity. Dual-antigen targeting augmented CAR T-cell secretion of engineered IL-18 and facilitated elimination of larger myeloma burdens in vivo. Our results demonstrate that combination of engineered IL-18 secretion and multiantigen targeting can eliminate myeloma with weak antigen expression through distinct mechanisms.

The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities.

Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.

Guidance for prevention and management of COVID-19 in children and adolescents: A consensus statement from the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society Pediatric COVID-19 Therapies Taskforce.

BACKGROUND: Since November 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has created challenges for preventing and managing COVID-19 in children and adolescents. Most research to develop new therapeutic interventions or to repurpose existing ones has been undertaken in adults, and although most cases of infection in pediatric populations are mild, there have been many cases of critical and fatal infection. Understanding the risk factors for severe illness and the evidence for safety, efficacy, and effectiveness of therapies for COVID-19 in children is necessary to optimize therapy. METHODS: A panel of experts in pediatric infectious diseases, pediatric infectious diseases pharmacology, and pediatric intensive care medicine from 21 geographically diverse North American institutions was re-convened. Through a series of teleconferences and web-based surveys and a systematic review with meta-analysis of data for risk factors, a guidance statement comprising a series of recommendations for risk stratification, treatment, and prevention of COVID-19 was developed and refined based on expert consensus. RESULTS: There are identifiable clinical characteristics that enable risk stratification for patients at risk for severe COVID-19. These risk factors can be used to guide the treatment of hospitalized and non-hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 and to guide preventative therapy where options remain available.

A ProTide of AZT Shows Activity Against Human Papillomaviruses.

Infection by human papillomaviruses (HPV) can cause warts and tumors. So far, no small molecule antiviral has been approved for the treatment of infections with this DNA virus, although preclinical studies show activity for nucleosidic compounds, such as 9-(2-phosphonylmethoxy)ethylguanine (PMEG) or cidofovir. This prompted us to test new prodrug versions of the nucleoside analog 3'-azido-2',3'-dideoxythymidine (AZT), known to be active against reverse transcriptases and approved for the treatment of HIV. Here we report the synthesis of an ethylbutyl alaninyl ester phosphosphoramidate prodrug of AZT, dubbed AZAEB, and its activity against HPV, a target not known to be sensitive to AZT. A methyl ester derivative was found to be inactive against this and three other DNA viruses, while the phosphoramidate prodrug AZAEB showed a modest inhibitory effect against HPV types 6, 11, 18 and 31. Our results open up new avenues of study for the treatment of diseases caused by members of the papillomaviridae family.

Risk Factors for Pediatric Critical COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Risk stratification is a cornerstone of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society COVID-19 treatment guidance. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to define the clinical characteristics and comorbidities associated with critical COVID-19 in children and adolescents. Methods: Two independent reviewers screened the literature (Medline and EMBASE) for studies published through August 2023 that reported outcome data on patients aged ≤21 years with COVID-19. Critical disease was defined as an invasive mechanical ventilation requirement, intensive care unit admission, or death. Random effects models were used to estimate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and heterogeneity was explored through subgroup analyses. Results: Among 10,178 articles, 136 studies met the inclusion criteria for review. Data from 70 studies, which collectively examined 172,165 children and adolescents with COVID-19, were pooled for meta-analysis. In previously healthy children, the absolute risk of critical disease from COVID-19 was 4% (95% CI, 1%-10%). Compared with no comorbidities, the pooled OR for critical disease was 3.95 (95% CI, 2.78-5.63) for presence of one comorbidity and 9.51 (95% CI, 5.62-16.06) for ≥2 comorbidities. Key risk factors included cardiovascular and neurological disorders, chronic pulmonary conditions (excluding asthma), diabetes, obesity, and immunocompromise, all with statistically significant ORs >2.00. Conclusions: While the absolute risk for critical COVID-19 in children and adolescents without underlying health conditions is relatively low, the presence of one or more comorbidities was associated with markedly increased risk. These findings support the importance of risk stratification in tailoring pediatric COVID-19 management.

sPDGFRß and neuroinflammation are associated with AD biomarkers and differ by race: The ASCEND Study.

INTRODUCTION: There remains an urgent need to identify preclinical pathophysiological mechanisms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) development in high-risk, racially diverse populations. We explored the relationship between cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of vascular injury and neuroinflammation with AD biomarkers in middle-aged Black/African American (B/AA) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) participants. METHODS: Adults (45-65 years) with a parental history of AD were enrolled (n = 82). CSF and blood biomarkers were collected at baseline and year 2. RESULTS: CSF total tau (t-tau), phosphorylated tau (p-tau), and amyloid beta (Aß)40 were elevated at year 2 compared to baseline. CSF soluble platelet-derived growth factor receptor ß (sPDGFRß) levels, a marker of pericyte injury, correlated positively with t-tau, p-tau, Aß40 markers of vascular injury, and cytokines at baseline and year 2. CSF sPDGFRß and tau were significantly lower in B/AA than NHW. DISCUSSION: Vascular dysfunction and neuroinflammation may precede cognitive decline and disease pathology in the very early preclinical stages of AD, and there are race-related differences in these relationships. HIGHLIGHTS: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers changed over 2 years in high-risk middle-aged adults. Markers of vascular dysfunction were associated with the CSF biomarkers amyloid beta and tau. AD biomarkers were lower in Black compared to non-Hispanic White individuals. Markers of vascular dysfunction were lower among Black individuals.

Pediatric Infectious Diseases Milestones: A Step in the Right Direction to Evaluate Subspecialty Learners.

We share the work of the ACGME Pediatric Infectious Diseases Working Group in creating the Pediatric Infectious Diseases-Specific Milestones and discuss key considerations that lead to the reformation of competencies to better assess learners in Pediatric Infectious Diseases.

Inclusion, Diversity, Access, and Equity in Infectious Diseases Fellowship Training: Tools for Program Directors.

The Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) has set clear priorities in recent years to promote inclusion, diversity, access, and equity (IDA&E) in infectious disease (ID) clinical practice, medical education, and research. The IDSA IDA&E Task Force was launched in 2018 to ensure implementation of these principles. The IDSA Training Program Directors Committee met in 2021 and discussed IDA&E best practices as they pertain to the education of ID fellows. Committee members sought to develop specific goals and strategies related to recruitment, clinical training, didactics, and faculty development. This article represents a presentation of ideas brought forth at the meeting in those spheres and is meant to serve as a reference document for ID training program directors seeking guidance in this area.

Acute central retinal artery occlusion with emboli.

CRAO is an ophthalmic and medical emergency. This case is a reminder that diagnosis and management of CRAO begins with ophthalmologists but immediately thereafter care involves emergency cardiovascular and neurological similar to cerebral stroke.

Treatment of Laryngeal Verrucous Carcinoma: 28-Year Retrospective Cohort Study and Literature Review.

Objective: Laryngeal verrucous carcinoma (LVC) comprises 1% to 4% of all laryngeal tumors. Although controversial, surgery has been the mainstay of treatment, due to concern about anaplastic transformation with radiotherapy. We aimed to study LVC patients to identify treatment patterns for primary and recurrent diseases. Study Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary referral center. Methods: Patients with a pathological diagnosis of LVC treated over a 28-year period were included. Baseline demographics, and treatment outcome measures including 5-year laryngeal preservation rates (LPR), overall survival (OS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were included. A literature review of published studies within the same study period was also completed. Results: Thirty-two patients were included in the analysis (median age 61.5 years, 93.8% [30/32] male). Twenty-three patients had T1 disease, and 9 had T2 disease with no evidence of regional or metastatic disease. The most common presenting symptom was hoarseness (93.8%) and the majority within the glottis 81.3% (26/32). Twenty-nine patients underwent primary surgery only (28 local excisions, 1 vertical partial laryngectomy) meanwhile 3 underwent local excision with postoperative radiotherapy. LPR, OS, and RFS at 5 years were 95.8%, 90.1%, and 80.6%, respectively. Our literature review identified 23 previous studies, mostly single-institution retrospective case series. Our study was the largest Canadian study in the literature to date. Conclusion: All LVC patients were treated with primary surgery, consistent with the current literature with excellent 5-year OS and LPR. There was no consensus on the treatment of recurrent disease. Future prospective multicenter studies are warranted to further study this rare disease population.

Frosted branch angiitis as an immune recovery response in newly diagnosed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and systemic cytomegalovirus infection.

Frosted branch angiitis (FBA) is an uncommon form of severe retinal perivasculitis associated with systemic inflammatory/infectious diseases. In this report, we describe a case of FBA and macular edema as a result of immune recovery response in a patient newly diagnosed with HIV infection and cytomegalovirus viremia.

In Silico Design and Experimental Validation of Novel Oxazole Derivatives Against Varicella zoster virus.

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection causes severe disease such as chickenpox, shingles, and postherpetic neuralgia, often leading to disability. Reactivation of latent VZV is associated with a decrease in specific cellular immunity in the elderly and in patients with immunodeficiency. However, due to the limited efficacy of existing therapy and the emergence of antiviral resistance, it has become necessary to develop new and effective antiviral drugs for the treatment of diseases caused by VZV, particularly in the setting of opportunistic infections. The goal of this work is to identify potent oxazole derivatives as anti-VZV agents by machine learning, followed by their synthesis and experimental validation. Predictive QSAR models were developed using the Online Chemical Modeling Environment (OCHEM). Data on compounds exhibiting antiviral activity were collected from the ChEMBL and uploaded in the OCHEM database. The predictive ability of the models was tested by cross-validation, giving coefficient of determination q2 = 0.87-0.9. The validation of the models using an external test set proves that the models can be used to predict the antiviral activity of newly designed and known compounds with reasonable accuracy within the applicability domain (q2 = 0.83-0.84). The models were applied to screen a virtual chemical library with expected activity of compounds against VZV. The 7 most promising oxazole derivatives were identified, synthesized, and tested. Two of them showed activity against the VZV Ellen strain upon primary in vitro antiviral screening. The synthesized compounds may represent an interesting starting point for further development of the oxazole derivatives against VZV. The developed models are available online at OCHEM http://ochem.eu/article/145978 and can be used to virtually screen for potential compounds with anti-VZV activity.

Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants on Short- and Mid-term Cardiac Outcomes in Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children.

Cardiac outcomes of 131 children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) were examined. The majority of the cohort was male (66.4%) and half were Black (49.6%). Cardiac involvement was evident in 25% of the cohort at diagnosis. Favorable short- and mid-term outcomes were documented on follow-up, irrespective of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants causing the infection.

Investigating N-arylpyrimidinamine (NAPA) compounds as early-stage inhibitors against human cytomegalovirus.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a ubiquitous ß-herpesvirus that establishes latent asymptomatic infections in healthy individuals but can cause serious infections in immunocompromised people, resulting in increased risk of morbidity and mortality. The current FDA-approved CMV drugs target late stages of the CMV life-cycle. While these drugs are effective in most cases, they have serious drawbacks, including poor oral bioavailability, dose-limiting toxicity, and a low barrier to resistance. Given the clinical relevance of CMV-associated diseases, novel therapies are needed. Thus, a novel class of compounds that inhibits the early stages of the CMV life-cycle was identified and found to block infection of different strains in physiologically relevant cell types. This class of compounds, N-arylpyrimidinamine (NAPA), demonstrated potent anti-CMV activity against ganciclovir-sensitive and -resistant strains in in vitro replication assays, a selectivity index >30, and favorable in vitro ADME properties. Mechanism of action studies demonstrated that NAPA compounds inhibit an early step of virus infection. NAPA compounds are specific inhibitors of cytomegaloviruses and exhibited limited anti-viral activity against other herpesviruses. Collectively, we have identified a novel class of CMV inhibitor that effectively limits viral infection and proliferation.

NPP-669, a Novel Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Therapeutic with Excellent Cellular Uptake, Antiviral Potency, Oral Bioavailability, Preclinical Efficacy, and a Promising Safety Margin.

DNA viruses are responsible for many diseases in humans. Current treatments are often limited by toxicity, as in the case of cidofovir (CDV, Vistide), a compound used against cytomegalovirus (CMV) and adenovirus (AdV) infections. CDV is a polar molecule with poor bioavailability, and its overall clinical utility is limited by the high occurrence of acute nephrotoxicity. To circumvent these disadvantages, we designed nine CDV prodrug analogues. The prodrugs modulate the polarity of CDV with a long sulfonyl alkyl chain attached to one of the phosphono oxygens. We added capping groups to the end of the alkyl chain to minimize ß-oxidation and focus the metabolism on the phosphoester hydrolysis, thereby tuning the rate of this reaction by altering the alkyl chain length. With these modifications, the prodrugs have excellent aqueous solubility, optimized metabolic stability, increased cellular permeability, and rapid intracellular conversion to the pharmacologically active diphosphate form (CDV-PP). The prodrugs exhibited significantly enhanced antiviral potency against a wide range of DNA viruses in infected human foreskin fibroblasts. Single-dose intravenous and oral pharmacokinetic experiments showed that the compounds maintained plasma and target tissue levels of CDV well above the EC50 for 24 h. These experiments identified a novel lead candidate, NPP-669. NPP-669 demonstrated efficacy against CMV infections in mice and AdV infections in hamsters following oral (p.o.) dosing at a dose of 1 mg/kg BID and 0.1 mg/kg QD, respectively. We further showed that NPP-669 at 30 mg/kg QD did not exhibit histological signs of toxicity in mice or hamsters. These data suggest that NPP-669 is a promising lead candidate for a broad-spectrum antiviral compound.