Recent and future declines of a historically widespread pollinator linked to climate, land cover, and pesticides.

The acute decline in global biodiversity includes not only the loss of rare species, but also the rapid collapse of common species across many different taxa. The loss of pollinating insects is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic values these species provide. The western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) was once common in western North America, but this species has become increasingly rare through much of its range. To understand potential mechanisms driving these declines, we used Bayesian occupancy models to investigate the effects of climate and land cover from 1998 to 2020, pesticide use from 2008 to 2014, and projected expected occupancy under three future scenarios. Using 14,457 surveys across 2.8 million km2 in the western United States, we found strong negative relationships between increasing temperature and drought on occupancy and identified neonicotinoids as the pesticides of greatest negative influence across our study region. The mean predicted occupancy declined by 57% from 1998 to 2020, ranging from 15 to 83% declines across 16 ecoregions. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we found continued declines in nearly half of the ecoregions by the 2050s and mean declines of 93% under the most severe scenario across all ecoregions. This assessment underscores the tenuous future of B. occidentalis and demonstrates the scale of stressors likely contributing to rapid loss of related pollinator species throughout the globe. Scaled-up, international species-monitoring schemes and improved integration of data from formal surveys and community science will substantively improve the understanding of stressors and bumble bee population trends.

Eyes on the herd: Quantifying ungulate density from satellite, unmanned aerial systems, and GPScollar data.

Novel approaches to quantifying density and distributions could help biologists adaptively manage wildlife populations, particularly if methods are accurate, consistent, cost-effective, rapid, and sensitive to change. Such approaches may also improve research on interactions between density and processes of interest, such as disease transmission across multiple populations. We assess how satellite imagery, unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery, and Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data vary in characterizing elk density, distribution, and count patterns across times with and without supplemental feeding at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in the US state of Wyoming. We also present the first comparison of satellite imagery data with traditional counts for ungulates in a temperate system. We further evaluate seven different aggregation metrics to identify the most consistent and sensitive metrics for comparing density and distribution across time and populations. All three data sources detected higher densities and aggregation locations of elk during supplemental feeding than non-feeding at the NER. Kernel density estimates (KDEs), KDE polygon areas, and the first quantile of interelk distances detected differences with the highest sensitivity and were most highly correlated across data sources. Both UAS and satellite imagery provide snapshots of density and distribution patterns of most animals in the area at lower cost than GPS collars. While satellite-based counts were lower than traditional counts, aggregation metrics matched those from UAS and GPS data sources when animals appeared in high contrast to the landscape, including brown elk against new snow in open areas. UAS counts of elk were similar to traditional ground-based counts on feed grounds and are the best data source for assessing changes in small spatial extents. Satellite, UAS, or GPS data can provide appropriate data for assessing density and changes in density from adaptive management actions. For the NER, where high elk densities are beneath controlled airspace, GPS collar data will be most useful for evaluating how management actions, including changes in the dates of supplemental feeding, influence elk density and aggregation across large spatial extents. Using consistent and sensitive measures of density may improve research on the drivers and effects of density within and across a wide range of species.

Disentangling monitoring programs: design, analysis, and application considerations.

Monitoring programs are an essential tool for assessing and informing conservation efforts but the methods used to gather monitoring data directly influence results. This presents a challenge to conservation professionals when deciding on existing data to inform a given question. We illustrate the challenges of using monitoring data by comparing population trends from two large-scale avian monitoring programs in the western United States: the Breeding Bird Survey and Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions programs. We used publicly available data to compare trend trajectory between 2008 and 2015 for 148 species across Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming. Trends were inconsistent for 62% of the comparisons, with species having opposite trends in 21 cases. The inconsistencies found within our species comparisons reflect the inherent differences between program sampling design and analytical approach. Periodically revisiting how and why we monitor natural resources is necessary to advance conservation and management as the lessons learned from long-standing programs guide the development of more recent efforts. Our results emphasize that prior to management actions and policy decisions, managers must be aware of both the sampling design and appropriate ecological inference of any monitoring program.

Avian roosting behavior influences vector-host interactions for West Nile virus hosts.

BACKGROUND: Extensive work has shown that vectors almost never feed at random. Often, a subset of individual hosts and host species are fed on much more frequently than expected from their abundance and this can amplify pathogen transmission. However, the drivers of variation in contact patterns between vectors and their hosts are not well understood, even in relatively well-studied systems such as West Nile virus (WNV). METHODS: We compared roosting height and roost aggregation size of seven avian host species of WNV with patterns of host-seeking mosquito (Culex pipiens) abundance at communal and non-communal roost sites. RESULTS: First, host-seeking mosquito abundance increased with height and paralleled increased mosquito feeding preferences on species roosting higher in the tree canopy. Second, there were several hundred-fold fewer mosquitoes per bird trapped at American robin (Turdus migratorius) communal roosts compared to non-communal roost sites, which could reduce transmission from and to this key amplifying host species. Third, seasonal changes in communal roost formation may partly explain observed seasonal changes in mosquito feeding patterns, including a decrease in feeding on communal roosting robins. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate how variation in habitat use by hosts and vectors and social aggregation by hosts influence vector-host interactions and link the behavioral ecology of birds and the transmission of vector-borne diseases to humans.