Prioritisation of Provinces for African Swine Fever Intervention in South Africa through Decision Matrix Analysis.

South Africa has experienced an increase in the number of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pigs in the last ten years. Intervention will be needed in the form of control and prevention strategies to minimise the impact of this disease in the country. The aim of this study is to prioritise which provinces resources should be allocated to for ASF intervention strategies, based on the risk factors identified as pertinent in South Africa. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach was followed using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to determine the perceived risk of ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs per province. Nine risk factors applicable to the South African context were identified from literature. Data on the presence of these risk factors per province were collected from records and by means of a questionnaire. The risk factors were weighted by means of an AHP. The decision matrix determined that ASF intervention and prevention resources should be focused on Mpumalanga, Free State and Gauteng provinces in South Africa. Specific intervention strategies should be focused on the confinement of pigs, swill-feeding of pigs and buying/selling of pigs at auctions through a participatory approach with stakeholders.

Investigation into eradication of African swine fever in domestic pigs from a previous outbreak (2016/17) area of South Africa.

A serological survey was conducted to evaluate the eradication of African swine fever (ASF) infection eighteen months after clinical surveillance and selective culling had been completed during domestic cycle outbreaks in parts of South Africa in 2016/17. Three hundred and twenty-two serum samples from 85 pig keepers were collected in the study area and tested for the presence of antibodies against the ASF virus (ASFV). None of the samples contained detectable levels of antibodies against ASFV. These results together with the findings from clinical surveillance following culling activities suggest that the disease had been eradicated from the domestic pig population in this area following the outbreaks. Questionnaire responses from the pig keepers in this area highlighted the need to implement basic biosecurity measures in smallholder pig keepers to prevent outbreaks of ASF in South Africa.

Investigation of African swine fever outbreaks in pigs outside the controlled areas of South Africa, 2012-2017.

South Africa historically experienced sporadic African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pigs in the northern parts of the country. This was subsequently indicated to be because of spillover from the sylvatic cycle of ASF between warthog and tampans (soft ticks) in the area. South Africa declared this area an ASF-controlled area in 1935, and the area is still controlled in terms of the Animal Diseases Act, 1984 (Act 35 of 1984). Two main epidemics of ASF in domestic pigs were identified outside of the South African ASF-controlled area. The first occurred in 2012 with outbreaks in Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces, and the second occurred in 2016-2017 with outbreaks in the North West, Free State and Northern Cape provinces. These were the first ASF epidemics in South Africa associated with transmission of the disease via a domestic cycle. This study found that the spread of ASF in these epidemics was mainly via auctions, swill feeding and scavenging. These three aspects need to be addressed in terms of awareness and education on the disease including implementation of biosecurity measures in order to prevent future ASF outbreaks in South Africa. Specific biosecurity measures should be implemented in the semi-commercial sector to prevent ASF-infected pigs and pig products from being moved to naïve pigs and therefore spreading the disease.

Understanding African swine fever outbreaks in domestic pigs in a sylvatic endemic area: The case of the South African controlled area between 1977-2017.

South Africa declared a controlled area for African swine fever (ASF) in 1935, consisting of the northern parts of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Kwa-Zulu Natal Provinces. The area was delineated based on the endemic presence of the sylvatic cycle of ASF, involving warthogs and argasid ticks. Occasionally, spillover occurs from the sylvatic cycle to domestic pigs, causing ASF outbreaks. In the period 1977 to 2017, 59 outbreaks of ASF were reported in domestic pigs within the ASF controlled area of South Africa. During these outbreaks, at least 4,031 domestic pigs either died or were culled. Season did not affect the number of reported ASF outbreaks, but the number of reported outbreaks in this area per year was thought to be slowly increasing, although not statistically significant. Outbreaks occurred predominantly in Limpopo province (93%) and were mostly due to contact (or suspected contact) with warthog or warthog carcasses. Clustering analysis of outbreaks found that the local municipalities of Ramotshere Moiloa, Lephalale and Thabazimbi had the highest relative risk for outbreaks. In 32 of the 59 outbreaks, the genotype of the ASF virus (ASFV) involved could be determined. Phylogenetic analysis of ASFVs detected in domestic pigs during the study period revealed that p72 genotypes I, III, IV, VII, VIII, XIX, XX, XXI and XXII had been involved in causing outbreaks within the ASF controlled area. No outbreaks were reported in the Kwa-Zulu Natal part of the controlled area during this period. South Africa is unlikely to eradicate all sources of ASFV as spillover from the sylvatic cycle in the controlled area continued to occur, but with the implementation of appropriate biosecurity measures pigs can be successfully farmed despite the presence of ASFV in African wild suids and soft ticks.

Overview of the perceived risk of transboundary pig diseases in South Africa.

Pig production is one of the most important animal agricultural activities in South Africa, and plays a definite role in providing food security for certain population groups in the country. As with all animal production systems, it is subject to the risk of outbreak of transboundary diseases. In the present overview, evaluations of the perceived risk of selected transboundary animal diseases of pigs, as collated from the willing participants from the provincial veterinary services of South Africa, are presented. A scenario tree revealed that infected but undetected pigs were the greatest perceived threat. The provincial veterinary services, according to participants in the study, face certain difficulties, including the reporting of disease and the flow of disease information amongst farmers. Perceived strengths in surveillance and disease monitoring include the swiftness of sample despatch to the national testing laboratory, as well as the ease of flow of information between the provincial and national agricultural authorities. The four factors were identified that were perceived to most influence animal health-service delivery: transport, access, livestock policy and resources. African swine fever was perceived to be the most important pig disease in South Africa. Because the decentralisation of veterinary services in South Africa was identified as a potential weakness, it is recommended that national and provincial veterinary services need to work together and interdependently to achieve centrally controlled surveillance systems. Regionally-coordinated surveillance activities for certain transboundary diseases were identified as needing priority for the southern African region. It is proposed that an emergency preparedness document be made available and regularly revised according to the potential risks identified on a continuous basis for South Africa.