Disparities in Excess Deaths from the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Migrant Workers in Kuwait

BackgroundThe actual human cost of the pandemic cannot be viewed through the COVID-19 mortality rates alone. Especially when the pandemic is widening the existing health disparities among different subpopulations within the same society. In Kuwait, migrant workers were already disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 and its unintended consequences. ObjectiveTo estimate the excess deaths in the pandemic year of 2020 among the Kuwaitis and non-Kuwaiti migrants. MethodsWe analyzed publicly available retrospective data on total annual mortality historically (2005 to 2019) and in 2020. We fitted a quasi-poisson generalized linear model adjusted for yearly trend and nationality to estimate the expected deaths in 2020 in the absence of the pandemic. We calculated excess deaths as the difference between observed and expected mortality for the year of the pandemic in both Kuwaitis and non-Kuwaitis. ResultsIn the absence of the pandemic, we expect the total mortality in Kuwait to be 6629 (95% CI: 6472 to 6789) deaths. However, the observed total mortality in 2020 was 9975 deaths; about 3346 (3186 to 3503) more deaths above the historical trend. Deaths among migrant workers would have been approximately 71.9% (67.8 to 76.0) lower in the absence of the pandemic. On the other hand, deaths among Kuwaitis would have been 32.4% (29.3 to 35.6) lower if the country had not had the pandemic. ConclusionThe mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic is substantially higher than what the official tally might suggest. Systematically disadvantaged migrant workers shouldered a larger burden of deaths in the pandemic year. Public health interventions must consider structural and societal determinants that give rise to the health disparities seen among migrant workers.

Analysis of Intervention Effectiveness Using Early Outbreak Transmission Dynamics to Guide Future Pandemic Management and Decision-Making in Kuwait

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the basic reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.