Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile). SETTING: General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41-45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51-55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40-49 and 50-59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407). STATISTICAL METHOD: Risk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUCROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40-49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43. CONCLUSION: This novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted 'COPD cases' at a much earlier age.

Genetic correlation and causal relationships between cardio-metabolic traits and lung function impairment.

BACKGROUND: Associations of low lung function with features of poor cardio-metabolic health have been reported. It is, however, unclear whether these co-morbidities reflect causal associations, shared genetic heritability or are confounded by environmental factors. METHODS: We performed three analyses: (1) cardio-metabolic health to lung function association tests in Northern Finland Birth cohort 1966, (2) cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) to compare genetic backgrounds and (3) Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to assess the causal effect of cardio-metabolic traits and disease on lung function, and vice versa (bidirectional MR). Genetic associations were obtained from the UK Biobank data or published large-scale genome-wide association studies (N > 82,000). RESULTS: We observed a negative genetic correlation between lung function and cardio-metabolic traits and diseases. In Mendelian Randomisation analysis (MR), we found associations between type 2 diabetes (T2D) instruments and forced vital capacity (FVC) as well as FEV1/FVC. Body mass index (BMI) instruments were associated to all lung function traits and C-reactive protein (CRP) instruments to FVC. These genetic associations provide evidence for a causal effect of cardio-metabolic traits on lung function. Multivariable MR suggested independence of these causal effects from other tested cardio-metabolic traits and diseases. Analysis of lung function specific SNPs revealed a potential causal effect of FEV1/FVC on blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The present study overcomes many limitations of observational studies by using Mendelian Randomisation. We provide evidence for an independent causal effect of T2D, CRP and BMI on lung function with some of the T2D effect on lung function being attributed to inflammatory mechanisms. Furthermore, this analysis suggests a potential causal effect of FEV1/FVC on blood pressure. Our detailed analysis of the interplay between cardio-metabolic traits and impaired lung function provides the opportunity to improve the quality of existing intervention strategies.

Respiratory symptoms are more common among short sleepers independent of obesity.

INTRODUCTION: Sleep length has been associated with obesity and various adverse health outcomes. The possible association of sleep length and respiratory symptoms has not been previously described. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between sleep length and respiratory symptoms and whether such an association existed independent of obesity. METHODS: This is a multicentre, cross-sectional, population-based study performed in 23 centres in 10 different countries. Participants (n=5079, 52.3% males) were adults in the third follow-up of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey III. The mean±SD age was 54.2±7.1 (age range 39-67 years). Information was collected on general and respiratory health and sleep characteristics. RESULTS: The mean reported nighttime sleep duration was 6.9±1.0 hours. Short sleepers (<6 hours per night) were n=387 (7.6%) and long sleepers (≥9 hours per night) were n=271 (4.3%). Short sleepers were significantly more likely to report all respiratory symptoms (wheezing, waking up with chest tightness, shortness of breath, coughing, phlegm and bronchitis) except asthma after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), centre, marital status, exercise and smoking. Excluding BMI from the model covariates did not affect the results. Short sleep was related to 11 out of 16 respiratory and nasal symptoms among subjects with BMI ≥30 and 9 out of 16 symptoms among subjects with BMI <30. Much fewer symptoms were related to long sleep, both for subjects with BMI <30 and ≥30. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that short sleep duration is associated with many common respiratory symptoms, and this relationship is independent of obesity.

Genome-wide association study of lung function decline in adults with and without asthma.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified determinants of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, and lung function level; however, none have addressed decline in lung function. OBJECTIVE: We conducted the first genome-wide association study on the age-related decrease in FEV(1) and its ratio to forced vital capacity (FVC) stratified a priori by asthma status. METHODS: Discovery cohorts included adults of European ancestry (1,441 asthmatic and 2,677 nonasthmatic participants: the Epidemiological Study on the Genetics and Environment of Asthma, the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Disease in Adults, and the European Community Respiratory Health Survey). The associations of FEV(1) and FEV(1)/FVC ratio decrease with 2.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were estimated. Thirty loci were followed up by in silico replication (1,160 asthmatic and 10,858 nonasthmatic participants: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, the Framingham Heart Study, the British 1958 Birth Cohort, and the Dutch Asthma Study). RESULTS: Main signals identified differed between asthmatic and nonasthmatic participants. None of the SNPs reached genome-wide significance. The association between the height-related gene DLEU7 and FEV(1) decrease suggested for nonasthmatic participants in the discovery phase was replicated (discovery, P = 4.8 × 10(-6); replication, P = .03), and additional sensitivity analyses point to a relation to growth. The top ranking signal, TUSC3, which is associated with FEV(1)/FVC ratio decrease in asthmatic participants (P = 5.3 × 10(-8)), did not replicate. SNPs previously associated with cross-sectional lung function were not prominently associated with decline. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic heterogeneity of lung function might be extensive. Our results suggest that genetic determinants of longitudinal and cross-sectional lung function differ and vary by asthma status.