RESUMO
Drought variability analysis is of utmost concern for planning and efficiently managing water resources and food security in any specific area. In the current study, drought spell occurrence has been investigated in the Balochistan province of Pakistan during the past four decades (1981-2020) using standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and precipitation deciles (PD) at an annual timescale. Precipitation and temperature data collected from 13 synoptic meteorological stations located in Balochistan were used to calculate the SPI, the RDI, and the PD for calculation of drought severity and duration. Based on these indices, temporal analysis shows adverse impacts of drought spells in Nokkundi during 1991-1993, in Barkhan, Dalbandin, Quetta stations during 1999-2000, whereas Barkhan, Dalbandin, Lasbella, Sibi during 2002-2003, Zhob during 2010-2011, Kalat and Khuzdar during 2014-2015, and Panjgur during 2017-2018. Also, the aridity index for each station was calculated based on the UNEP method shows that major part of Balochistan lies in the arid zone, followed by the hyper-arid in the southwestern part and the semi-arid zones in the northeastern part of the province. SPI and RDI results were found more localized than PD, as PD shows extensive events. Furthermore, principal component analysis shows a significant contribution from all the indices. For SPI, RDI, and PD, the first three principal components have more than 70% share, contributing 73.63%, 74.15%, and 72.30% respectively. By integrating drought patterns, long-term planning, and preparedness to mitigate drought impacts are only possible. The RDI was found more suitable and recommended in case of temperature data availability.
A análise da variabilidade da seca é de extrema importância para o planejamento e gestão eficiente dos recursos hídricos e da segurança alimentar em qualquer área específica. No estudo atual, a ocorrência de períodos de seca foi investigada na província do Baluchistão, no Paquistão, durante as últimas quatro décadas (1981-2020), usando índice de precipitação padronizado (SPI), índice de seca de reconhecimento (RDI) e decis de precipitação (PD) em uma escala anual. Dados de precipitação e temperatura coletados de 13 estações meteorológicas sinóticas localizadas no Baluchistão foram usados ââpara calcular o SPI, o RDI e o PD para cálculo da severidade e duração da seca. A análise temporal mostra os impactos adversos dos períodos de seca em Nokkundi durante 1991-1993 e na maior parte da província de 1999 a 2004. Além disso, o índice de aridez para cada estação foi calculado com base no método do PNUMA. Os resultados de SPI e RDI foram encontrados mais localizados do que PD, pois PD apresenta eventos extensos. Além disso, a análise de componentes principais mostra uma contribuição significativa de todos os índices. Para SPI, RDI e PD, os três primeiros componentes principais têm mais de 70% de participação, contribuindo com 73,63%, 74,15% e 72,30%, respectivamente. O planejamento e a preparação de longo prazo para mitigar os impactos da seca só são possíveis por meio da integração dos padrões de seca.
Assuntos
Chuva , Recursos Hídricos , Estações Meteorológicas , Secas , Abastecimento de Alimentos , PaquistãoRESUMO
Drought variability analysis is of utmost concern for planning and efficiently managing water resources and food security in any specific area. In the current study, drought spell occurrence has been investigated in the Balochistan province of Pakistan during the past four decades (1981-2020) using standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and precipitation deciles (PD) at an annual timescale. Precipitation and temperature data collected from 13 synoptic meteorological stations located in Balochistan were used to calculate the SPI, the RDI, and the PD for calculation of drought severity and duration. Based on these indices, temporal analysis shows adverse impacts of drought spells in Nokkundi during 1991-1993, in Barkhan, Dalbandin, Quetta stations during 1999-2000, whereas Barkhan, Dalbandin, Lasbella, Sibi during 2002-2003, Zhob during 2010-2011, Kalat and Khuzdar during 2014-2015, and Panjgur during 2017-2018. Also, the aridity index for each station was calculated based on the UNEP method shows that major part of Balochistan lies in the arid zone, followed by the hyper-arid in the southwestern part and the semi-arid zones in the northeastern part of the province. SPI and RDI results were found more localized than PD, as PD shows extensive events. Furthermore, principal component analysis shows a significant contribution from all the indices. For SPI, RDI, and PD, the first three principal components have more than 70% share, contributing 73.63%, 74.15%, and 72.30% respectively. By integrating drought patterns, long-term planning, and preparedness to mitigate drought impacts are only possible. The RDI was found more suitable and recommended in case of temperature data availability.