Personalized Virus Load Curves of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

We introduce an explicit function that describes virus-load curves on a patient-specific level. This function is based on simple and intuitive model parameters. It allows virus load analysis without solving a full virus load dynamic model. We validate our model on data from influenza A as well as SARS-CoV-2 infection data for Macaque monkeys and humans. Further, we compare the virus load function to an established target model of virus dynamics, which shows an excellent fit. Our virus-load function offers a new way to analyse patient virus load data, and it can be used as input to higher level models for the physiological effects of a virus infection, for models of tissue damage, and to estimate patient risks.