Monitoring and forecasting the SARS-Covid-19 pandemic in France

Before the availability of vaccines, many countries have resorted multiple times to drastic social restrictions to prevent saturation of their health care system, and to regain control over an otherwise exponentially increasing COVID-19 pandemic. With the advent of data-sharing, computational approaches are key to efficiently control a pandemic with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Here we develop a data-driven computational framework based on a time discrete and age-stratified compartmental model to control a pandemic evolution inside and outside hospitals in a constantly changing environment with NPIs. Besides the calendrical time, we introduce a second time-scale for the infection history, which allows for non-exponential transition probabilities. We develop inference methods and feedback procedures to successively recalibrate model parameters as new data becomes available. As a showcase, we calibrate the framework to study the pandemic evolution inside and outside hospitals in France until February 2021. We combine national hospitalization statistics from governmental websites with clinical data from a single hospital to calibrate hospitalization parameters. We infer changes in social contact matrices as a function of NPIs from positive testing and new hospitalization data. We use simulations to infer hidden pandemic properties such as the fraction of infected population, the hospitalisation probability, or the infection fatality ratio. We show how reproduction numbers and herd immunity levels depend on the underlying social dynamics.

Innate immune deficiencies in patients with COVID-19

COVID-19 can cause acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), leading to death in a significant number of individuals. Evidence of a strong role of the innate immune system is accumulating, but the precise cells and mechanism involved remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the links between circulating innate phagocyte phenotype and functions and severity in COVID-19 patients. Eighty-four consecutive patients were included, 44 of which were in intensive care units (ICU). We performed an in-depth phenotyping of neutrophil and monocyte subpopulations and measured soluble activation markers in plasma. Additionally, myeloid cell functions (phagocytosis, oxidative burst, and NETosis) were evaluated on fresh cells from patients. Resulting parameters were linked to disease severity and prognosis. Both ICU and non-ICU patients had circulating neutrophils and monocytes with an activated phenotype, as well as elevated concentrations of soluble activation markers (calprotectin, myeloperoxidase, neutrophil extracellular traps, MMP9, sCD14) in their plasma. ICU patients were characterized by increased CD10low CD13low immature neutrophils, LOX-1+ and CCR5+ immunosuppressive neutrophils, and HLA-DRlow CD14low downregulated monocytes. Markers of immature and immunosuppressive neutrophils were strongly associated with severity and poor outcome. Moreover, neutrophils and monocytes of ICU patients had impaired antimicrobial functions, which correlated with organ dysfunction, severe infections, and mortality. Our study reveals a marked dysregulation of innate immunity in COVID-19 patients, which was correlated with severity and prognosis. Together, our results strongly argue in favor of a pivotal role of innate immunity in COVID-19 severe infections and pleads for targeted therapeutic options. One Sentence SummaryOur study reveals a marked dysregulation of innate immunity in COVID-19 patients, which correlates with severity and prognosis.

Remdesivir as a tool to relieve hospital care systems stressed by COVID-19: A modelling study on bed resources and budget impact.

Remdesivir and dexamethasone are the only drugs providing reductions in the lengths of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients. We assessed the impacts of remdesivir on hospital-bed resources and budgets affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. A stochastic agent-based model was combined with epidemiological data available on the COVID-19 outbreak in France and data from two randomized control trials. Strategies involving treating with remdesivir only patients with low-flow oxygen and patients with low-flow and high-flow oxygen were examined. Treating all eligible low-flow oxygen patients during the entirety of the second wave would have decreased hospital-bed occupancy in conventional wards by 4% [2%; 7%] and intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy by 9% [6%; 13%]. Extending remdesivir use to high-flow-oxygen patients would have amplified reductions in ICU-bed occupancy by up to 14% [18%; 11%]. A minimum remdesivir uptake of 20% was required to observe decreases in bed occupancy. Dexamethasone had effects of similar amplitude. Depending on the treatment strategy, using remdesivir would, in most cases, generate savings (up to 722{euro}) or at least be cost neutral (an extra cost of 34{euro}). Treating eligible patients could significantly limit the saturation of hospital capacities, particularly in ICUs. The generated savings would exceed the costs of medications.

Two original observations concerning bacterial infections in COVID-19 patients hospitalized in intensive care units during the first wave of the epidemic in France

Among 197 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in ICU, 88 (44.7%) experienced at least one bacterial infection, with pneumonia (39.1%) and bloodstream infections (15,7%) being the most frequent. Unusual findings include frequent suspicion of bacterial translocations originating from the digestive tract as well as bacterial persistence in the lungs despite adequate therapy.

CD177, a specific marker of neutrophil activation, is a hallmark of COVID-19 severity and death

COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 infection exhibits wide inter-individual clinical variability, from silent infection to severe disease and death. The identification of high-risk patients is a continuing challenge in routine care. We aimed to identify factors that influence clinical worsening. We analyzed 52 cell populations, 71 analytes, and RNA-seq gene expression in the blood of severe patients from the French COVID cohort upon hospitalization (n = 61). COVID-19 patients showed severe abnormalities of 27 cell populations relative to healthy donors (HDs). Forty-two cytokines, neutrophil chemo-attractants, and inflammatory components were elevated in COVID-19 patients. Supervised gene expression analyses showed differential expression of genes for neutrophil activation, interferon signaling, T- and B-cell receptors, EIF2 signaling, and ICOS-ICOSL pathways in COVID-19 patients. Unsupervised analysis confirmed the prominent role of neutrophil activation, with a high abundance of CD177, a specific neutrophil activation marker. CD177 was the most highly differentially-expressed gene contributing to the clustering of severe patients and its abundance correlated with CD177 protein serum levels. CD177 levels were higher in COVID-19 patients from both the French and "confirmatory" Swiss cohort (n = 203) than in HDs (P< 0.01) and in ICU than non-ICU patients (P< 0.001), correlating with the time to symptoms onset (P = 0.002). Longitudinal measurements showed sustained levels of serum CD177 to discriminate between patients with the worst prognosis, leading to death, and those who recovered (P = 0.01). These results highlight neutrophil activation as a hallmark of severe disease and CD177 assessment as a reliable prognostic marker for routine care.

Modeling of aerosol transmission of airborne pathogens in ICU rooms of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated many concerns about cross-contamination risks, particularly in hospital settings and Intensive Care Units (ICU). Virus-laden aerosols produced by infected patients can propagate throughout ventilated rooms and put medical personnel entering them at risk. Experimental results found with a schlieren optical method have shown that the air flows generated by a cough and normal breathing were modified by the oxygenation technique used, especially when using High Flow Nasal Canulae, increasing the shedding of potentially infectious airborne particles. This study also uses a 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics model based on a Lattice Boltzmann Method to simulate the air flows as well as the movement of numerous airborne particles produced by a patients cough within an ICU room under negative pressure. The effects of different mitigation scenarii on the amount of aerosols potentially containing SARS-CoV-2 that are extracted through the ventilation system are investigated. Numerical results indicate that adequate bed orientation and additional air treatment unit positioning can increase by 40% the number of particles extracted and decrease by 25% the amount of particles deposited on surfaces 45s after shedding. This approach could help lay the grounds for a more comprehensive way to tackle contamination risks in hospitals, as the model can be seen as a proof of concept and be adapted to any room configuration.

SARS-CoV-2 N-antigenemia: A new alternative to nucleic acid amplification techniques

Background. Molecular assays on nasopharyngeal swabs remain the cornerstone of COVID-19 diagnostic. Despite massive worldwide efforts, the high technicalities of nasopharyngeal sampling and molecular assays, as well as scarce resources of reagents, limit our testing capabilities. Several strategies failed, to date, to fully alleviate this testing process (e.g. saliva sampling or antigen testing on nasopharyngeal samples). We assessed the performances of a new ELISA microplate assay quantifying SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (N-antigen) in serum or plasma. Methods. The specificity of the assay, determined on 63 non-COVID patients, was 98.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.3 to 100). Performances were determined on 227 serum samples from 165 patients with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection included in the French COVID and CoV-CONTACT cohorts. Findings. Sensitivity was 132/142, 93.0% (95% CI, 84.7 to 100), within the first two weeks after symptoms onset. A subset of 73 COVID-19 patients had a serum collected within 24 hours following or preceding a positive nasopharyngeal swab. Among patients with high nasopharyngeal viral loads, Ct value below 30 and 33, only 1/50 and 4/67 tested negative for N-antigenemia, respectively. Among patients with a negative nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, 8/12 presented positive N-antigenemia. The lower respiratory tract was explored for 6/8 patients, showing positive PCR in 5 cases. Interpretation. This is the first demonstration of the N-antigen antigenemia during COVID-19. Its detection presented a robust sensitivity, especially within the first 14 days after symptoms onset and high nasopharyngeal viral loads. These findings have to be confirmed with higher representation of outpatients. This approach could provide a valuable new option for COVID-19 diagnosis, only requiring a blood draw and easily scalable in all clinical laboratories.

Outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to MAIT cell activation and cytotoxicity: evidence for an IL-18 dependent mechanism

Immune system dysfunction is paramount in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and fatality rate. Mucosal-Associated Invariant T (MAIT) cells are innate-like T cells involved in mucosal immunity and protection against viral infections. Here, we studied the immune cell landscape, with emphasis on MAIT cells, in a cohort of 182 patients including patients at various stages of disease activity. A profound decrease of MAIT cell counts in blood of critically ill patients was observed. These cells showed a strongly activated and cytotoxic phenotype that positively correlated with circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines, notably IL-18. MAIT cell alterations markedly correlated with disease severity and patient mortality. SARS-CoV-2-infected macrophages activated MAIT cells in a cytokine-dependent manner involving an IFN-dependent early phase and an IL-18-induced later phase. Therefore, altered MAIT cell phenotypes represent valuable biomarkers of disease severity and their therapeutic manipulation might prevent the inflammatory phase involved in COVID-19 aggravation.

Immune alterations during SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome

We report a longitudinal analysis of the immune response associated with a fatal case of COVID-19. This patient exhibited a rapid evolution towards multiorgan failure. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in multiple nasopharyngeal, blood, and pleural samples, despite antiviral and immunomodulator treatment. Clinical evolution in the blood was marked by an increase (2-3 fold) in differentiated effector T cells expressing exhaustion (PD-1) and senescence (CD57) markers, an expansion of antibody-secreting cells, a 15-fold increase in {gamma}{delta} T-cell and proliferating NK-cell populations, and the total disappearance of monocytes, suggesting lung trafficking. In the serum, waves of a proinflammatory cytokine storm, Th1 and Th2 activation, and markers of T-cell exhaustion, apoptosis, cell cytotoxicity, and endothelial activation were observed until the fatal outcome. This case underscores the need for well-designed studies to investigate complementary approaches to control viral replication, the source of the hyperinflammatory status, and immunomodulation to target the pathophysiological response.