Economic losses due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Ethiopian cattle.

Ethiopia's cattle population is among the largest in Africa and is burdened by frequent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. FMD is caused by several distinct and highly contagious viral strains that can result in acute disease in cattle, causing losses in productivity and impeding international trade. This economic simulation study considered four main sources of losses due to FMD in cattle: reduced milk yield, draft power yield, fertility, and increased mortality. Economic losses were estimated per case across age-sex strata in 89 Ethiopian administrative zones for the years 2010-2021 using a wide range of data to estimate distributions for 30 input variables in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. It was estimated that an average case of FMD in Ethiopian cattle results in losses (mean values reported followed 95 % confidence intervals in brackets) of US dollars (USD) 11 (USD 7-USD 16) per case. Losses resulting from an average outbreak were estimated to be USD 2300 (USD 1400-USD 3300), while national annual losses were estimated to be USD 0.9 Mil. (USD 0.2 Mil.-USD 2.3 Mil.). Per cow-year, based on a national cow population of approximately 39 Mil. head, these estimated annual losses are equivalent to losses of only USD 0.02 (USD 0.01-USD 0.06). Nationally, these losses were significantly less than previously estimated in the literature, with currently estimated losses more accurately reflecting the economic burden of FMD in Ethiopian cattle over the past decade. The relatively small estimated losses suggest that control efforts based on widespread vaccination in countries with primarily extensive cattle production systems, such as Ethiopia, are unlikely to be economically sound. Sensitivity analyses suggested losses would be far greater in intensive systems, and that certainty surrounding incidence rates is paramount to the formulation of economically sound animal healthpolicy in regions with endemic FMD.

Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop-livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22-0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21-0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26-3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.

Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia: a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012.

This study aimed at determining the incidence, distribution, risk factors, and causal serotypes of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ethiopia based on 5 years of retrospective outbreak data (September 2007 until August 2012). District level outbreak data were collected from 115 randomly selected districts using a questionnaire administered to district animal health officers. The national incidence of FMD outbreaks during the study period was 1.45 outbreaks per five district years. Outbreaks were geographically widespread affecting all major regional states in the country and were more frequent in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country. Neither long-term nor seasonal trends were observed in the incidence of outbreaks. A mixed effects logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of production system (market oriented system versus subsistence systems), presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were found to be associated with increased risk of outbreaks in the districts. FMD virus serotypes O, A, SAT 2, and SAT 1 were identified as the causal serotypes of the outbreaks during the study period. Whereas O was the dominant serotype, SAT 2 was the serotype that showed increase in relative frequency of occurrence. The estimated incidence of outbreaks is useful in assessing the economic impacts of the disease, and the identified risk factors provide important knowledge to target a progressive FMD control policy for Ethiopia.

Economic impact of foot and mouth disease outbreaks on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia.

Foot and mouth disease is endemic in Ethiopia with occurrences of several outbreaks every year. Quantitative information about the impact of the disease on smallholder farming systems in the country is, however, scarce. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the clinical and direct economic impacts of foot and mouth disease outbreaks on household level in smallholder livestock farming systems. Impacts were assessed based on data obtained from case outbreaks in cattle in crop-livestock mixed and pastoral smallholder farming systems that occurred in 2012 and 2013. Data were collected by using questionnaires administered to 512 smallholder farmers in six districts within two administrate zones that represent the two smallholder farming systems. Foot and mouth disease morbidity rates of 85.2% and 94.9% at herd level; and 74.3% and 60.8% at animal level in the affected herds were determined for crop-livestock mixed system and pastoral system, respectively. The overall and calf specific mortality rates were 2.4% and 9.7% for the crop-livestock mixed system, and 0.7% and 2.6% for the pastoral system, respectively. Herd level morbidity rate was statistically significantly higher in the pastoral system than in the crop-livestock mixed system (P<0.001). The economic losses of foot and mouth disease outbreak due to milk loss, draft power loss and mortality were on average USD 76 per affected herd and USD 9.8 per head of cattle in the affected herds in crop-livestock mixed system; and USD 174 per affected herd and USD 5.3 per head of cattle in the affected herds in the pastoral system. The herd level economic losses were statistically significantly higher for the pastoral system than for the crop-livestock mixed system (P<0.001). The major loss due to the disease occurred as a result of milk losses and draft power losses whereas mortality losses were relatively low. Although the presented estimates on the economic losses accounted only for the visible direct impacts of the disease on herd level, these conservative estimates signify a potential socioeconomic gain from a control intervention.