Dynamic survival analysis for non-Markovian epidemic models.

We present a new method for analysing stochastic epidemic models under minimal assumptions. The method, dubbed dynamic survival analysis (DSA), is based on a simple yet powerful observation, namely that population-level mean-field trajectories described by a system of partial differential equations may also approximate individual-level times of infection and recovery. This idea gives rise to a certain non-Markovian agent-based model and provides an agent-level likelihood function for a random sample of infection and/or recovery times. Extensive numerical analyses on both synthetic and real epidemic data from foot-and-mouth disease in the UK (2001) and COVID-19 in India (2020) show good accuracy and confirm the method's versatility in likelihood-based parameter estimation. The accompanying software package gives prospective users a practical tool for modelling, analysing and interpreting epidemic data with the help of the DSA approach.

Information and communication technology-based assistive technology to compensate for impaired cognition in everyday life: a systematic review.

Purpose: A systematic review was performed evaluating the effectiveness of Information and Communication Technology-based Assistive Technology (ICT-based-AT) to compensate for impaired cognition in everyday life activities.Materials and methods: The study was registered in PROSPERO, registration number CRD42018114913. Six databases were searched (years 2008-2019).Inclusion criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or cohort studies; people with impaired cognition due to non-degenerative diseases; and evaluation of ICT-based-ATs' effectiveness regarding activity and participation, including prospective memory, execution of tasks and satisfaction with task execution. Each study's level of evidence and quality were assessed using "JBI Levels of Evidence" and the "JBI Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument", respectively.Results: About 3,153 publications were located, of which 12 were included. The levels of evidence were: 1.c (RCT) (n = 7), 1.d (pseudo-RCT) (n = 1) and 3.e (observational study without control group) (n = 4). Three studies had high quality (2 RCT/1 cohort), eight acceptable (5 RCT/3 cohort) and one low (RCT) quality.Conclusions: Smartphones, personal digital assistants (PDAs), etc. with e.g. calendars and reminder alarms can improve prospective memory, especially for people with ABI. Furthermore, PDAs and similar products with prompts can improve execution of tasks for people with cognitive impairment due to different diagnoses. Products should be tailored to the users' needs and the users trained in product use. Further studies concerning children, older people and people with intellectual and developmental disability are required; as well as studies on cost-effectiveness and the effectiveness of related services.Implications for rehabilitationIn order to support activity and participation in everyday life for people with prospective memory problems, especially people with acquired brain injury, they should be offered information and communication technology-based products, such smart phones, mobile phones, personal digital assistants or similar mainstream products equipped with reminding software.People with cognitive impairment having difficulties executing tasks independently should be offered PDAs and mobile telephones and similar products with prompting software, e.g. audio-verbal, picture and video-based task-sequencing prompts.The ICT-based products should be individually tailored, and the person should be trained in using the selected product.