New Approach to Equitable Intervention Planning to Improve Engagement and Outcomes in a Digital Health Program: Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Digital health programs provide individualized support to patients with chronic diseases and their effectiveness is measured by the extent to which patients achieve target individual clinical outcomes and the program's ability to sustain patient engagement. However, patient dropout and inequitable intervention delivery strategies, which may unintentionally penalize certain patient subgroups, represent challenges to maximizing effectiveness. Therefore, methodologies that optimize the balance between success factors (achievement of target clinical outcomes and sustained engagement) equitably would be desirable, particularly when there are resource constraints. OBJECTIVE: Our objectives were to propose a model for digital health program resource management that accounts jointly for the interaction between individual clinical outcomes and patient engagement, ensures equitable allocation as well as allows for capacity planning, and conducts extensive simulations using publicly available data on type 2 diabetes, a chronic disease. METHODS: We propose a restless multiarmed bandit (RMAB) model to plan interventions that jointly optimize long-term engagement and individual clinical outcomes (in this case measured as the achievement of target healthy glucose levels). To mitigate the tendency of RMAB to achieve good aggregate performance by exacerbating disparities between groups, we propose new equitable objectives for RMAB and apply bilevel optimization algorithms to solve them. We formulated a model for the joint evolution of patient engagement and individual clinical outcome trajectory to capture the key dynamics of interest in digital chronic disease management programs. RESULTS: In simulation exercises, our optimized intervention policies lead to up to 10% more patients reaching healthy glucose levels after 12 months, with a 10% reduction in dropout compared to standard-of-care baselines. Further, our new equitable policies reduce the mean absolute difference of engagement and health outcomes across 6 demographic groups by up to 85% compared to the state-of-the-art. CONCLUSIONS: Planning digital health interventions with individual clinical outcome objectives and long-term engagement dynamics as considerations can be both feasible and effective. We propose using an RMAB sequential decision-making framework, which may offer additional capabilities in capacity planning as well. The integration of an equitable RMAB algorithm further enhances the potential for reaching equitable solutions. This approach provides program designers with the flexibility to switch between different priorities and balance trade-offs across various objectives according to their preferences.

Evaluating equitable care in the ICU: Creating a causal inference framework to assess the impact of life-sustaining interventions across racial and ethnic groups.

Background: Variability in the provision of intensive care unit (ICU)-interventions may lead to disparities between socially defined racial-ethnic groups. Research Question: We used causal inference to examine the use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), renal replacement therapy (RRT), and vasopressor agents (VP) to identify disparities in outcomes across race-ethnicity in patients with sepsis. Study Design and Methods: Single-center, academic referral hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, USA. Retrospective analysis of treatment effect with a targeted trial design categorized by treatment assignment within the first 24 hours in the MIMIC-IV dataset (2008- 2019) using targeted maximum likelihood estimation. Of 76,943 ICU stays in MIMIC-IV, 32,971 adult stays fulfilling sepsis-3 criteria were included. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were hospital-free days, and occurrence of nosocomial infection stratified by predicted mortality probability ranges and self-reported race-ethnicity. Average treatment effects by treatment type and race-ethnicity, Racial-ethnic group (REG) or White group (WG), were estimated. Results: Of 19,419 admissions that met inclusion criteria, median age was 68 years, 57.4% were women, 82% were White, and mortality was 18.2%. There was no difference in mortality benefit associated with the administration of IMV, RRT, or VP between the REG and the WG. There was also no difference in hospital-free days or nosocomial infections. These findings are unchanged with different eligibility periods. Interpretation: There were no differences in the treatment outcomes from three life-sustaining interventions in the ICU according to race-ethnicity. While there was no discernable harm from the treatments across mortality risk, there was also no measurable benefit. These findings highlight the need for research to understand better the risk-benefit of life-sustaining interventions in the ICU.

Fitting and validation of an agent-based model for COVID-19 case forecasting in workplaces and universities.

COVID-19 forecasting models have been critical in guiding decision-making on surveillance testing, social distancing, and vaccination requirements. Beyond influencing public health policies, an accurate COVID-19 forecasting model can impact community spread by enabling employers and university leaders to adapt worksite policies and practices to contain or mitigate outbreaks. While many such models have been developed for COVID-19 forecasting at the national, state, county, or city level, only a few models have been developed for workplaces and universities. Furthermore, COVID-19 forecasting models have rarely been validated against real COVID-19 case data. Here we present the systematic parameter fitting and validation of an agent-based compartment model for the forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in single-site workplaces and universities with real-world data. Our approaches include manual fitting, where initial model parameters are chosen based on historical data, and automated fitting, where parameters are chosen based on candidate case trajectory simulations that result in best fit to prevalence estimation data. We use a 14-day fitting window and validate our approaches on 7- and 14-day testing windows with real COVID-19 case data from one employer. Our manual and automated fitting approaches accurately predicted COVID-19 case trends and outperformed the baseline model (no parameter fitting) across multiple scenarios, including a rising case trajectory (RMSLE values: 2.627 for baseline, 0.562 for manual fitting, 0.399 for automated fitting) and a decreasing case trajectory (RMSLE values: 1.155 for baseline, 0.537 for manual fitting, 0.778 for automated fitting). Our COVID-19 case forecasting model allows decision-makers at workplaces and universities to proactively respond to case trend forecasts, mitigate outbreaks, and promote safety.

Predictive Modeling of the Total Joint Replacement Surgery Risk: a Deep Learning Based Approach with Claims Data.

Total joint replacement (TJR) is one of the most commonly performed, fast-growing elective surgical procedures in the United States. Given its huge volume and cost variation, it has been regarded as one of the top opportunities to reduce health care cost by the industry. Identifying patients with a high chance of undergoing TJR surgery and engaging them for shopping is the key to success for plan sponsors. In this paper, we experimented with different machine learning algorithms and developed a novel deep learning approach to predict TJR surgery based on a large commercial claims dataset. Our results demonstrated that the performance of the gated recurrent neural network is better than other methods regardless of data representation methods (multi-hot encoding or embedding). Additional pooling mechanism can further improve the performance of deep learning models for our case.

Dynamic prediction of hospital admission with medical claim data.

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure is one of the most common reasons those aged 65 and over are hospitalized in the United States, which has caused a considerable economic burden. The precise prediction of hospitalization caused by congestive heart failure in the near future could prevent possible hospitalization, optimize the medical resources, and better meet the healthcare needs of patients. METHODS: To fully utilize the monthly-updated claim feed data released by The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), we present a dynamic random survival forest model adapted for periodically updated data to predict the risk of adverse events. We apply our model to dynamically predict the risk of hospital admission among patients with congestive heart failure identified using the Accountable Care Organization Operational System Claim and Claim Line Feed data from Feb 2014 to Sep 2015. We benchmark the proposed model with two commonly used models in medical application literature: the cox proportional model and logistic regression model with L-1 norm penalty. RESULTS: Results show that our model has high Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve across time points and C-statistics. In addition to the high performance, it provides measures of variable importance and individual-level instant risk. CONCLUSION: We present an efficient model adapted for periodically updated data such as the monthly updated claim feed data released by CMS to predict the risk of hospitalization. In addition to processing big-volume periodically updated stream-like data, our model can capture event onset information and time-to-event information, incorporate time-varying features, provide insights of variable importance and have good prediction power. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first work combining sliding window technique with the random survival forest model. The model achieves remarkable performance and could be easily deployed to monitor patients in real time.

Automated mutual exclusion rules discovery for structured observational codes in echocardiography reporting.

Structured reporting in medicine has been argued to support and enhance machine-assisted processing and communication of pertinent information. Retrospective studies showed that structured echocardiography reports, constructed through point-and-click selection of finding codes (FCs), contain pair-wise contradictory FCs (e.g., "No tricuspid regurgitation" and "Severe regurgitation") downgrading report quality and reliability thereof. In a prospective study, contradictions were detected automatically using an extensive rule set that encodes mutual exclusion patterns between FCs. Rules creation is a labor and knowledge-intensive task that could benefit from automation. We propose a machine-learning approach to discover mutual exclusion rules in a corpus of 101,211 structured echocardiography reports through semantic and statistical analysis. Ground truth is derived from the extensive prospectively evaluated rule set. On the unseen test set, F-measure (0.439) and above-chance level AUC (0.885) show that our approach can potentially support the manual rules creation process. Our methods discovered previously unknown rules per expert review.