Co-Benefits of Energy Structure Transformation and Pollution Control for Air Quality and Public Health until 2050 in Guangdong, China.

In order to mitigate global warming and improve air quality, the transformation of regional energy structures is the most important development pathway. China, as a major global consumer of fossil fuels, will face great pressure in this regard. Aiming toward achieving the global 2 °C warming target in China, this study takes one of the most developed regions of China, Guangdong Province, as the research area in order to explore a future development pathway and potential air quality attainment until 2050, by developing two energy structure scenarios (BAU_Energy and 2Deg_Energy) and three end-of-pipe scenarios (NFC, CLE, and MTFR), and simulating future air quality and related health impacts for the different scenarios using the WRF-Chem model. The results show that under the energy transformation scenario, total energy consumption in Guangdong rises from 296 Mtce (million tons of coal equivalent) in 2015 to 329 Mtce in 2050, with electricity and clean energy accounting for 45% and 35%. In 2050, the transformation of the energy structure leads to 64%, 75%, and 46% reductions in the emissions of CO2, NOx, and SO2 compared with those in 2015. Together with the most stringent end-of-pipe control measures, the emissions of VOCs and primary PM2.5 are effectively reduced by 66% and 78%. The annual average PM2.5 and MDA8 (daily maximum 8 h O3) concentrations in Guangdong are 33.8 and 85.9 µg/m3 in 2015, with 63.4 thousand premature deaths (95% CI: 57.1-70.8) due to environmental exposure. Under the baseline scenario, no improvement is gained in air quality or public health by 2050. In contrast, the PM2.5 and MDA8 concentrations decline to 21.7 and 75.5 µg/m3 under the scenario with energy structure transformation, and total premature deaths are reduced to 35.5 thousand (31.9-39.5). When further combined with the most stringent end-of-pipe control measures, the PM2.5 concentrations decrease to 16.5 µg/m3, but there is no significant improvement for ozone, with premature deaths declining to 20.6 thousand (18.5-23.0). This study demonstrates that the transformation of energy structure toward climate goals could be effective in mitigating air pollution in Guangdong and would bring significant health benefits. Compared with the end-of-pipe control policies, transformation of the energy structure is a more effective way to improve regional air quality in the long term, and synergistic promotion of both is crucial for regional development.

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects.

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.

Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit.

Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

Energy and emission pathways towards PM2.5 air quality attainment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by 2030.

In 2013, the Chinese government announced its first air quality standard for PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 µm) which requires annual mean PM2.5 concentration to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target 1 of 35 µg/m3 nationwide including the most polluted region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH). Here, we explore the future mitigation pathways for the BTH region to investigate the possibility of air quality attainment by 2030 in that region, by developing two energy scenarios (i.e., baseline energy scenario and enhanced energy scenario) and two end-of-pipe scenarios (i.e., business as usual scenario and best available technology scenario) and simulating future air quality for different scenarios using the WRF/CMAQ model. Results showed that without stringent energy and industrial structure adjustment, even the most advanced end-of-pipe technologies did not allow the BTH region to attain the 35 µg/m3 target. Under the most stringent scenario that coupled the enhanced structure adjustment measures and the best available end-of-pipe measures, the emissions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and NMVOCs (nonmethane volatile organic compounds) were estimated to be reduced by 85%, 74%, 82% and 72%, respectively, in 2030 over the BTH region. As a result, the simulated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei could decline to 23, 28 and 28 µg/m3, respectively, all of which achieved the 35 µg/m3 target by 2030. Our study identified a feasible pathway to achieve the 2030 target and highlighted the importance of reshaping the energy and industrial structure of the BTH region for future air pollution mitigation.

The contribution of the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region's iron and steel industry to local air pollution in winter.

The Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region (BTH) in China is a highly populated area that has recently experienced frequent haze episodes in winter. With high production capacities, the iron and steel industry (ISI) has long been a key source of air pollutants in BTH and is thus considered responsible for the degradation of local air quality. Here, we conducted a cross-disciplinary research combining the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model, the multiregional input-output model (MRIO) and the health assessment model to explore the impacts of the ISI on air pollution in the BTH region in January 2012. Our results show large increases in air pollution due to direct ISI emissions, with up to a 90 µg/m3 monthly average of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) in eastern Tangshan and western Handan. In addition to direct emissions, the ISI has induced large quantities of indirect emissions from upstream sectors (e.g., the electricity and transportation sectors), leading to PM2.5, SO2 and NOx increases of 2-10 µg/m3 in BTH. Considering the direct and indirect emissions, we estimated that 275 (233-313) PM2.5-related mortalities occurred in January, and approximately 42% of these premature deaths occurred in Tangshan. A high rate of premature deaths also occurred in urban Beijing due to its high population density. Revealing the great health burden caused by the ISI, our results underscore the necessity for the Chinese government to reduce air pollutant emissions from the ISI and its upstream industries in BTH.

Development a hyaluronic acid ion-pairing liposomal nanoparticle for enhancing anti-glioma efficacy by modulating glioma microenvironment.

Glioma, one of the most common brain tumors, remains a challenge worldwide. Due to the specific biological barriers such as blood-brain barrier (BBB), cancer stem cells (CSCs), tumor associated macrophages (TAMs), and vasculogenic mimicry channels (VMs), a novel versatile targeting delivery for anti-glioma is in urgent need. Here, we designed a hyaluronic acid (HA) ion-pairing nanoparticle. Then, these nanoparticles were encapsulated in liposomes, termed as DOX-HA-LPs, which showed near-spherical morphology with an average size of 155.8 nm and uniform distribution (PDI = 0.155). HA was proven to specifically bind to CD44 receptor, which is over-expressed on the surface of tumor cells, other associated cells (such as CSCs and TAMs) and VMs. We systematically investigated anti-glioma efficacy and mechanisms in vivo and in vitro. The strong anti-glioma efficacy could attribute to the accumulation in glioma site and the regulation of tumor microenvironment with depletion of TAMs, inhibition of VMs, and elimination of CSCs.

Enhanced antitumor and anti-metastasis efficacy against aggressive breast cancer with a fibronectin-targeting liposomal doxorubicin.

The chemotherapy of aggressive breast tumor is usually accompanied by a poor prognosis because of the metastasis of tumor cells. Thus, it is important to simultaneously enhance antitumor and anti-metastasis efficacy. Fibronectin and its complexes are expressed on the walls of tumor vessels and in tumor stroma. Moreover, the expression of fibronectin in metastatic sites is even higher than that in primary tumors. Herein, we designed a fibronectin-targeting CREKA-modified liposomal doxorubicin (CREKA-Lipo-Dox) for the therapy of metastatic breast tumor. CREKA-Lipo was uniformly formed with high entrapment efficiency. It exhibited longer blood circulation time compared with free Dox, and there was no significant change compared with PEG-Lipo-Dox. Immunofluorescence results revealed that the CREKA-Lipo-Dox could specifically bind to fibronectin in the tumor vessels and tumor stroma. The antitumor and anti-metastasis efficacy of CREKA-loaded liposome was more obvious than that of free Dox or unmodified Dox-Lipo. Taken together, binding fibronectin by CREKA could be an attractive therapeutic strategy for metastatic breast cancer in the future.

Data on fossil fuel availability for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

The data files contain the assumptions and results for the construction of cumulative availability curves for coal, oil and gas for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The files include the maximum availability (also known as cumulative extraction cost curves) and the assumptions that are applied to construct the SSPs. The data is differentiated into twenty regions. The resulting cumulative availability curves are plotted and the aggregate data as well as cumulative availability curves are compared across SSPs. The methodology, the data sources and the assumptions are documented in a related article (N. Bauer, J. Hilaire, R.J. Brecha, J. Edmonds, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, H.-H. Rogner, F. Sferra, 2016) [1] under DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088.

Development of a multi-target peptide for potentiating chemotherapy by modulating tumor microenvironment.

Finding effective cures against aggressive malignancy remains a major challenge in cancer chemotherapy. Here, we report a "tadpole"-like peptide by covalently conjugating the alanine-alanine-asparagine "tail" residual to the cyclic tumor homing peptide iRGD (CCRGDKGPDC) to afford nRGD, which significantly enhanced tumoricidal effects of doxorubicin, by either co-administered as a physical mixture or as a targeting ligand covalently conjugated to the liposomal carrier. Given twice at an equivalent dose of 5 mg/kg, doxorubicin loaded liposomes modified with nRGD (nRGD-Lipo-Dox) showed excellent antitumor efficacy in 4T1 breast cancer mice, of which 44.4% remained alive for over 90 days without recurrence during the period of investigation. The dramatic improvement in antitumor efficacy was attributed to nRGD-Lipo-Dox which appeared to specifically interact with tumor vascular endothelial cells to achieve efficient tumor penetration, and modulate tumor microenvironment with depletion of tumor associated macrophages.

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO(2) emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO(2) emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO(2) emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO(2) emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO(2) emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO(2) emissions control and mitigation.

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.