Improving Matching Between Recipient and Donor in Liver Transplantation: Are Scores Able to Predict Long-term Survival?

BACKGROUND: The primary goal was to calculate the value of delta Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (D-MELD) and Balance of Risk (BAR) scores in patients who underwent liver transplant. The secondary objective was to evaluate D-MELD and BAR scores' ability to predict patient and graft survival. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 336 patients who underwent liver transplant in a tertiary medical center between January 2010 and December 2020. The D-MELD and the BAR scores were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic curve with the calculation of area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the predictive score power for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 5-year patient and graft survivals. RESULTS: The AUCs of D-MELD score in predicting 5-year patient and graft survival were 0.506 (95% CI, 0.43-0.57) and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.42-0.56), respectively. The AUCs of BAR score in predicting 5-year patient and graft survival were 0.50 (95% CI, 0.33-0.66) and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.30-0.67), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We could not confirm the ability to predict long-term survival by using D-MELD and BAR scores in our sample; however, there is a statistically significant trend in receiver operating characteristic curves of 5-year patient and graft survivals. We encourage the use of new scoring systems with a greater external validation to improve allograft allocation.

Liver Transplantation in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Long-Term Survival Results.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplant (LT) is the treatment of choice for patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the Milan criteria. Its applicability is limited by the risk for recurrence and the impact on waiting lists. We aimed to describe our results in patients with LT due to HCC and to evaluate its long-term survival outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was carried out on all patients undergoing LT between January 2010 and December 2020. RESULTS: Among 336 patients undergoing LT, 99 had early-stage HCC with underlying cirrhosis in 93.9%. Average time from HCC diagnosis to transplant was 161 days [99-248 days]. In this period, 91 (91.9%) patients received adjuvant treatment. Seven (7.1%) of 99 patients had HCC recurrence and 33 (33.3%) died during the follow-up period. In terms of survival, LT in patients with and without HCC resulted in 6-month survival of 87.9% and 84.3%, 1-year patient survival of 84.7% and 79.4%, 3-year survival rate of 71.2% and 70.6%, and 5-year survival rate of 64.6% and 65.3% (P = .493), respectively. CONCLUSION: Based on Milan criteria as the benchmark for selecting HCC candidates to LT, both short- and long-term transplant survival rates achieved similar results when compared with patients without HCC. These results sustain transplantation as the treatment of choice for patients with cirrhosis and in the early stage of HCC.