Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate.

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

Interactions between Kuroshio Extension and Central Tropical Pacific lead to preferred decadal-timescale oscillations in Pacific climate.

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) exhibits prominent decadal fluctuations that enhance the low-frequency variability of North Pacific climate. Using available observations, we show evidence that a preferred decadal timescale in the KE emerges from the interaction between KE and the central tropical Pacific via Meridional Modes. Specifically, we show that changes in the KE states apply a persistent downstream atmospheric response (e.g. wind stress curl, 0-12 months timescales) that projects on the atmospheric forcing of the Pacific Meridional Modes (PMM) over 9 months timescales. Subsequently, the PMM energizes the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) and its atmospheric teleconnections back to the Northern Hemisphere (1-3 months timescale), which in turn excites oceanic Rossby waves in the central/eastern North Pacific that propagate westward changing the KE (~3 years timescales). Consistent with this hypothesis, the cross-correlation function between the KE and the PMM/CP-ENSO indices exhibits a significant sinusoidal shape corresponding to a preferred spectral power at decadal timescales (~10 years). This dynamics pathway (KE→PMM/CP-ENSO→KE) may provide a new mechanistic basis to explain the preferred decadal-timescale of the North Pacific and enhance decadal predictability of Pacific climate.