Automated surveillance of antimicrobial consumption in intensive care, northern Sweden: an observational case study.

BACKGROUND: The digitalization of information systems allows automatic measurement of antimicrobial consumption (AMC), helping address antibiotic resistance from inappropriate drug use without compromising patient safety. OBJECTIVES: Describe and characterize a new automated AMC surveillance service for intensive care units (ICUs), with data stratified by referral clinic and linked with individual patient risk factors, disease severity, and mortality. METHODS: An automated service collecting data from the electronic medical record was developed, implemented, and validated in a healthcare region in northern Sweden. We performed an observational study from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, encompassing general ICU care for all ≥18-years-olds in a catchment population of 270000 in secondary care and 900000 in tertiary care. We used descriptive analyses to associate ICU population characteristics with AMC outcomes over time, including days of therapy (DOT), length of therapy, defined daily doses, and mortality. RESULTS: There were 5608 admissions among 5190 patients with a median age of 65 (IQR 48-75) years, 41.2% females. The 30-day mortality was 18.3%. Total AMC was 1177 DOTs in secondary and 1261 DOTs per 1000 patient days and tertiary care. AMC varied significantly among referral clinics, with the highest total among 810 general surgery admissions in tertiary care at 1486 DOTs per 1000 patient days. Case-mix effects on the AMC were apparent during COVID-19 waves highlighting the need to account for case-mix. Patients exposed to more than three antimicrobial drug classes (N = 242) had a 30-day mortality rate of 40.6%, with significant variability in their expected rates based on admission scores. CONCLUSION: We introduce a new service and instructions for automating local ICU-AMC data collection. The versatile long-term ICU-AMC metrics presented, covering patient factors, referral clinics and mortality outcomes, are expected to be beneficial in refining antimicrobial drug use.

Treatment Outcome of Severe Respiratory Type B Tularemia Using Fluoroquinolones.

BACKGROUND: Fluoroquinolones lack approval for treatment of tularemia but have been used extensively for milder illness. Here, we evaluated fluoroquinolones for severe illness. METHODS: In an observational study, we identified case-patients with respiratory tularemia from July to November 2010 in Jämtland County, Sweden. We defined severe tularemia by hospitalization for >24 hours and severe bacteremic tularemia by Francisella tularensis subsp. holarctica growth in blood or pleural fluid. Clinical data and drug dosing were retrieved from electronic medical records. Chest images were reexamined. We used Kaplan-Meier curves to evaluate time to defervescence and hospital discharge. RESULTS: Among 67 case-patients (median age, 66 years; 81% males) 30-day mortality was 1.5% (1 of 67). Among 33 hospitalized persons (median age, 71 years; 82% males), 23 had nonbacteremic and 10 had bacteremic severe tularemia. Subpleural round consolidations, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and unilateral pleural fluid were common on chest computed tomography. Among 29 hospitalized persons with complete outcome data, ciprofloxacin/levofloxacin (n = 12), ciprofloxacin/levofloxacin combinations with doxycycline and/or gentamicin (n = 11), or doxycycline as the single drug (n = 6) was used for treatment. One disease relapse occurred with doxycycline treatment. Treatment responses were rapid, with median fever duration 41.0 hours in nonbacteremic and 115.0 hours in bacteremic tularemia. Increased age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index predicted severe bacteremic tularemia (odds ratio, 2.7 per score-point; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-5.41). A 78-year-old male with comorbidities and delayed ciprofloxacin/gentamicin treatment died. CONCLUSIONS: Fluoroquinolone treatment is effective for severe tularemia. Subpleural round consolidations and mediastinal lymphadenopathy were typical findings on computed tomography among case-patients in this study.

Nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Mortality During Unique COVID-19 Epidemic Waves.

Importance: Quantifying the burden of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated mortality is necessary to assess the need for infection prevention and control measures. Objective: To investigate the occurrence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated 30-day mortality among patients admitted to hospitals in Region Stockholm, Sweden. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective, matched cohort study divided the period from March 1, 2020, until September 15, 2022, into a prevaccination period, early vaccination and pre-Omicron (period 1), and late vaccination and Omicron (period 2). From among 303 898 patients 18 years or older living in Region Stockholm, 538 951 hospital admissions across all hospitals were included. Hospitalized admissions with nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections were matched to as many as 5 hospitalized admissions without nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 by age, sex, length of stay, admission time, and hospital unit. Exposure: Nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection defined as the first positive polymerase chain reaction test result at least 8 days after hospital admission or within 2 days after discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome of 30-day mortality was analyzed using time-to-event analyses with a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted for age, sex, educational level, and comorbidities. Results: Among 2193 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections or reinfections (1107 women [50.5%]; median age, 80 [IQR, 71-87] years), 2203 nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified. The incidence rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections was 1.57 (95% CI, 1.51-1.64) per 1000 patient-days. In the matched cohort, 1487 hospital admissions with nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections were matched to 5044 hospital admissions without nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections. Thirty-day mortality was higher in the prevaccination period (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.97 [95% CI, 2.50-3.53]) compared with period 1 (AHR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.50-2.88]) or period 2 (AHR, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.92-1.60]). Among patients with nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections, 30-day AHR comparing those with 2 or more doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and those with less than 2 doses was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.46-0.88). Conclusions and Relevance: In this matched cohort study, nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections were associated with higher 30-day mortality during the early phases of the pandemic and lower mortality during the Omicron variant wave and after the introduction of vaccinations. Mitigation of excess mortality risk from nosocomial transmission should be a strong focus when population immunity is low through implementation of adequate infection prevention and control measures.

Predicting sepsis onset using a machine learned causal probabilistic network algorithm based on electronic health records data.

Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality and early identification improves survival. With increasing digitalization of health care data automated sepsis prediction models hold promise to aid in prompt recognition. Most previous studies have focused on the intensive care unit (ICU) setting. Yet only a small proportion of sepsis develops in the ICU and there is an apparent clinical benefit to identify patients earlier in the disease trajectory. In this cohort of 82,852 hospital admissions and 8038 sepsis episodes classified according to the Sepsis-3 criteria, we demonstrate that a machine learned score can predict sepsis onset within 48 h using sparse routine electronic health record data outside the ICU. Our score was based on a causal probabilistic network model-SepsisFinder-which has similarities with clinical reasoning. A prediction was generated hourly on all admissions, providing a new variable was registered. Compared to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), which is an established method to identify sepsis, the SepsisFinder triggered earlier and had a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.950 vs. 0.872), as well as area under precision-recall curve (APR) (0.189 vs. 0.149). A machine learning comparator based on a gradient-boosting decision tree model had similar AUROC (0.949) and higher APR (0.239) than SepsisFinder but triggered later than both NEWS2 and SepsisFinder. The precision of SepsisFinder increased if screening was restricted to the earlier admission period and in episodes with bloodstream infection. Furthermore, the SepsisFinder signaled median 5.5 h prior to antibiotic administration. Identifying a high-risk population with this method could be used to tailor clinical interventions and improve patient care.

Vaccine-induced correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 in older and frail adults during waves of neutralization-resistant variants of concern: an observational study.

Background: To inform future preventive measures including repeated vaccinations, we have searched for a clinically useful immune correlate of protection against fatal COVID-19 among nursing homes residents. Methods: We performed repeated capillary blood sampling with analysis of S-binding IgG in an open cohort of nursing home residents in Sweden. We analyzed immunological and registry data from 16 September 2021 to 31 August 2022 with follow-up of deaths to 30 September 2022. The study period included implementation of the 3rd and 4th mRNA monovalent vaccine doses and Omicron virus waves. Findings: A total of 3012 nursing home residents with median age 86 were enrolled. The 3rd mRNA dose elicited a 99-fold relative increase of S-binding IgG in blood and corresponding increase of neutralizing antibodies. The 4th mRNA vaccine dose boosted levels 3.8-fold. Half-life of S-binding IgG was 72 days. A total 528 residents acquired their first SARS-CoV-2 infection after the 3rd or the 4th vaccine dose and the associated 30-day mortality was 9.1%. We found no indication that levels of vaccine-induced antibodies protected against infection with Omicron VOCs. In contrast, the risk of death was inversely correlated to levels of S-directed IgG below the 20th percentile. The death risk plateaued at population average above the lower 35th percentile of S-binding IgG. Interpretation: In the absence of neutralizing antibodies that protect from infection, quantification of S-binding IgG post vaccination may be useful to identify the most vulnerable for fatal COVID-19 among the oldest and frailest. This information is of importance for future strategies to protect vulnerable populations against neutralization resistant variants of concern. Funding: Swedish Research Council, SciLifeLab via Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, VINNOVA. Swedish Healthcare Regions, and Erling Persson Foundation.

At-home sampling to meet geographical challenges for serological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in a rural region of northern Sweden, March to May 2021: a retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundThe current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted a need for easy and safe blood sampling in combination with accurate serological methodology. Venipuncture for testing is usually performed by trained staff at healthcare centres. Long travel distances to healthcare centres in rural regions may introduce a bias of testing towards relatively large communities with closer access. Rural regions are therefore often not represented in population-based data.AimThe aim of this retrospective cohort study was to develop and implement a strategy for at-home testing in a rural region of Sweden during spring 2021, and to evaluate its role to provide equal health care for its inhabitants.MethodsWe developed a sensitive method to measure antibodies to the S-protein of SARS-CoV-2 and optimised this assay for clinical use together with a strategy of at-home capillary blood sampling.ResultsWe demonstrated that our ELISA gave comparable results after analysis of capillary blood or serum from SARS-CoV-2-experienced individuals. We demonstrated stability of the assay under conditions that reflected temperature and humidity during winter or summer. By assessment of capillary blood samples from 4,122 individuals, we could show both feasibility of the strategy and that implementation shifted the geographical spread of testing in favour of rural areas.ConclusionImplementation of at-home sampling enabled citizens living in remote rural areas access to centralised and sensitive laboratory antibody tests. The strategy for testing used here could therefore enable disease control authorities to get rapid access to information concerning immunity to infectious diseases, even across vast geographical distance.

ESCMID guidelines on testing for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic individuals to prevent transmission in the health care setting.

SCOPE: This guideline addresses the indications for direct testing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in asymptomatic individuals in health care facilities, with the aim to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in these settings. The benefit of testing asymptomatic individuals to create a safe environment for patients and health care workers must be weighed against potential unintended consequences, including delaying necessary treatments owing to false positive results and lower quality of care owing to strict isolation measures. METHODS: A total of nine PICOs (population, intervention, comparison, outcome) on the topic of testing asymptomatic individuals was selected by the panel members. Subsequently, a literature search for existing guidelines and systematic reviews was performed on PubMed, Epistemonikos, and RecMap using relevant filters available in each database. Data on article/recommendation type, setting, target population, intervention, and quality of the evidence were extracted. Credibility of the systematic reviews was evaluated using the AMSTAR tool, and level of agreement with available recommendation was evaluated with the AGREE II score. Because the evidence available from systematic reviews was deemed insufficiently updated to formulate relevant recommendations, an additional search targeting relevant guidance documents from major public health institutions and original studies was performed. Provisional recommendations were discussed via web conferences until agreement was reached, and final recommendations were formulated according to the GRADE approach. RECOMMENDATIONS: Recommendations were formulated regarding systematic testing in asymptomatic individuals upon admission to a health care setting, during hospital stay, before elective procedures, and before scheduled nonsurgical procedures. Moreover, recommendations regarding testing of asymptomatic visitors, personal caregivers, and health care workers in health care facilities were presented. Recommendations also were given on contact tracing in asymptomatic patients or health care workers and the possibility of a negative screening test to shorten the quarantine period. Furthermore, if applicable, recommendations were specified to transmission rate and vaccination coverage.

Expression of Sex Hormone Receptor and Immune Response Genes in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells During the Menstrual Cycle.

Sex hormones are known to interact with the immune system on multiple levels but information on the types of sex hormone receptors (SHR) and their expression levels in immune cells is scarce. Estrogen, testosterone and progesterone are all considered to interact with the immune system through their respective cell receptors (ERα and ERß including the splice variant ERß2, AR and PGR). In this study expression levels of SHR genes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and cell subsets (CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells, CD56+ NK-cells, CD14+ monocytes and CD19+ B-cells) were analyzed using standard manual qPCR or a qPCR array (TLDA). Nine healthy individuals including men (n = 2), premenopausal (Pre-MP, n = 5) and postmenopausal (post-MP, n = 2) women were sampled for PBMCs which were separated to cell subsets using FACS. Ten Pre-MP women were longitudinally sampled for total PBMCs at different phases of the menstrual cycle. We found that ERα was most abundant and, unexpectedly, that ERß2 was the dominant ERß variant in several FACS sorted cell subsets. In total PBMCs, SHR (ERα, ERß1, ERß2, and AR) expression did not fluctuate according to the phase of the menstrual cycle and PGR was not expressed. However, several immune response genes (GATA3, IFNG, IL1B, LTA, NFKB1, PDCD1, STAT3, STAT5A, TBX21, TGFB1, TNFA) were more expressed during the ovulatory and mid-luteal phases. Sex hormone levels did not correlate significantly with gene expression of SHR or immune response genes, but sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), a steroid hormone transporting protein, was positively correlated to expression of ERß1 gene. This study provides new insights in the distribution of ERs in immune cells. Furthermore, expression patterns of several immune response genes differ significantly between phases of the menstrual cycle, supporting a role for sex hormones in the immune response.

Corrigendum to "Blood hormones and torque teno virus in peripheral blood mononuclear cells" [Heliyon 6 (11) (2020) e05535].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05535.].

Blood hormones and torque teno virus in peripheral blood mononuclear cells.

Men and women respond differently to infectious diseases. Women show less morbidity and mortality, partially due to the differences in sex hormone levels which can influence the immune response. Torque teno virus (TTV) is non-pathogenic and ubiquitously present in serum from a large proportion (up to 90%) of adult humans with virus levels correlating with the status of the host immune response. The source of TTV replication is unknown, but T-lymphocytes have been proposed. In this study we investigated the presence and levels of TTV in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in premenopausal (pre-MP) women, post-menopausal (post-MP) women, and men, and determined their serum sex hormone levels. Of the examined subjects (n = 27), we found presence of TTV in PMBC from 17.6% pre-MP (n = 17), 25.0% post-MP (n = 4) and 50.0% men (n = 6). The levels of TTV/µg DNA were lower among TTV-positive men and post-MP women compared to pre-MP women. All the positive pre-MP women were either anovulatory, hypothyroid, or both. In addition, the TTV-positive pre-MP women had significantly lower progesterone levels compared to TTV-negative pre-MP women. Although our study was performed on a limited number of subjects, the data suggests that TTV in PBMC is associated with an anovulatory menstrual cycle with low progesterone levels, and possibly with male sex.

COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical mitigation and suppression scenarios.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs. METHODS: We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region. RESULTS: Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57). CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.

Validation of automated sepsis surveillance based on the Sepsis-3 clinical criteria against physician record review in a general hospital population: observational study using electronic health records data.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of sepsis incidence is important for directing resources and evaluating quality-of-care interventions. The aim was to develop and validate a fully-automated Sepsis-3 based surveillance system in non-intensive care wards using electronic health record (EHR) data, and demonstrate utility by determining the burden of hospital-onset sepsis and variations between wards. METHODS: A rule-based algorithm was developed using EHR data from a cohort of all adult patients admitted at an academic centre between July 2012 and December 2013. Time in intensive care units was censored. To validate algorithm performance, a stratified random sample of 1000 hospital admissions (674 with and 326 without suspected infection) was classified according to the Sepsis-3 clinical criteria (suspected infection defined as having any culture taken and at least two doses of antimicrobials administered, and an increase in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score by >2 points) and the likelihood of infection by physician medical record review. RESULTS: In total 82 653 hospital admissions were included. The Sepsis-3 clinical criteria determined by physician review were met in 343 of 1000 episodes. Among them, 313 (91%) had possible, probable or definite infection. Based on this reference, the algorithm achieved sensitivity 0.887 (95% CI: 0.799 to 0.964), specificity 0.985 (95% CI: 0.978 to 0.991), positive predictive value 0.881 (95% CI: 0.833 to 0.926) and negative predictive value 0.986 (95% CI: 0.973 to 0.996). When applied to the total cohort taking into account the sampling proportions of those with and without suspected infection, the algorithm identified 8599 (10.4%) sepsis episodes. The burden of hospital-onset sepsis (>48 hour after admission) and related in-hospital mortality varied between wards. CONCLUSIONS: A fully-automated Sepsis-3 based surveillance algorithm using EHR data performed well compared with physician medical record review in non-intensive care wards, and exposed variations in hospital-onset sepsis incidence between wards.