Evaluating sources of bias in pedigree-based estimates of breeding population size.

Applications of genetic-based estimates of population size are expanding, especially for species for which traditional demographic estimation methods are intractable due to the rarity of adult encounters. Estimates of breeding population size (NS ) are particularly amenable to genetic-based approaches as the parameter can be estimated using pedigrees reconstructed from genetic data gathered from discrete juvenile cohorts, therefore eliminating the need to sample adults in the population. However, a critical evaluation of how genotyping and sampling effort influence bias in pedigree reconstruction, and how these biases subsequently influence estimates of NS , is needed to evaluate the efficacy of the approach under a range of scenarios. We simulated a model system to understand the interactive effects of genotyping and sampling effort on error in genetic pedigrees reconstructed from the program COLONY. We then evaluated how errors in pedigree reconstruction influenced bias and precision in estimates of NS using three different rarefaction estimators. Results indicated that pedigree error can be minimal when adequate genetic data are available, such as when juvenile sample sizes are large and/or individuals are genotyped at many informative loci. However, even in cases for which data are limited, using results of the simulation analysis to understand the magnitude and sources of bias in reconstructed pedigrees can still be informative when estimating NS . We applied results of the simulation analysis to evaluate N ̂ $$ \hat{N} $$ S for a population of federally endangered Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) in the Delaware River, USA. Our results indicated that NS is likely to be three orders of magnitude lower compared with historic breeding population sizes, which is a considerable advancement in our understanding of the population status of Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. Our analyses are broadly applicable in the design and interpretation of studies seeking to estimate NS and can help to guide conservation decisions when ecological uncertainty is high. The utility of these results is expected to grow as rapid advances in genetic technologies increase the popularity of genetic population monitoring and estimation.

Characterization of 13 microsatellite loci for the deep-sea coral, Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus 1758), from the western North Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

A suite of 13 polymorphic tri- and tetranucleotide microsatellite loci were isolated from the ahermatypic deep-sea coral, Lophelia pertusa. Among 51 individuals collected from three disjunct oceanic regions, allelic diversity ranged from six to 38 alleles and averaged 9.1 alleles per locus. Observed heterozygosity ranged from 9.1 to 96.8% and averaged 62.3% in the Gulf of Mexico population. For some loci, amplification success varied among collections, suggesting regional variation in priming site sequences. Four loci showed departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in certain collections which may reflect nonrandom mating.