Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities.

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and other regions and countries to estimate, quickly and with limited data, a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible scenarios for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening.

Endothelial cell respiration is affected by the oxygen tension during shear exposure: role of mitochondrial peroxynitrite.

Cultured vascular endothelial cell (EC) exposure to steady laminar shear stress results in peroxynitrite (ONOO(-)) formation intramitochondrially and inactivation of the electron transport chain. We examined whether the "hyperoxic state" of 21% O(2), compared with more physiological O(2) tensions (Po(2)), increases the shear-induced nitric oxide (NO) synthesis and mitochondrial superoxide (O(2)(*-)) generation leading to ONOO(-) formation and suppression of respiration. Electron paramagnetic resonance oximetry was used to measure O(2) consumption rates of bovine aortic ECs sheared (10 dyn/cm(2), 30 min) at 5%, 10%, or 21% O(2) or left static at 5% or 21% O(2). Respiration was inhibited to a greater extent when ECs were sheared at 21% O(2) than at lower Po(2) or left static at different Po(2). Flow in the presence of an endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) inhibitor or a ONOO(-) scavenger abolished the inhibitory effect. EC transfection with an adenovirus that expresses manganese superoxide dismutase in mitochondria, and not a control virus, blocked the inhibitory effect. Intracellular and mitochondrial O(2)(*-) production was higher in ECs sheared at 21% than at 5% O(2), as determined by dihydroethidium and MitoSOX red fluorescence, respectively, and the latter was, at least in part, NO-dependent. Accumulation of NO metabolites in media of ECs sheared at 21% O(2) was modestly increased compared with ECs sheared at lower Po(2), suggesting that eNOS activity may be higher at 21% O(2). Hence, the hyperoxia of in vitro EC flow studies, via increased NO and mitochondrial O(2)(*-) production, leads to enhanced ONOO(-) formation intramitochondrially and suppression of respiration.

Regulation of antioxidants and phase 2 enzymes by shear-induced reactive oxygen species in endothelial cells.

Exposure of vascular endothelial cells (ECs) to steady laminar shear stress activates the NF-E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) which binds to the antioxidant response element (ARE) and upregulates the expression of several genes. The onset of shear is known to increase the EC reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and oxidative stress can activate the ARE. ARE-regulated genes include phase 2 enzymes, such as glutathione-S-transferase (GST) and NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1), and antioxidants, such as glutathione reductase (GR), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and catalase. We examined how shear stress affects the antioxidant/phase 2 enzyme activities and whether ROS mediate these effects. ROS production, measured by dichlorofluorescin fluorescence, depended on level and time of shear exposure and EC origin, and was inhibited by either an endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) inhibitor or a superoxide dismutase (SOD) mimetic and peroxynitrite (ONOO-) scavenger. Shear stress (10 dynes/cm2, 16 h) significantly increased the NQO1 activity, did not change significantly the glutathione (GSH) content, and significantly decreased the GR, GPx, GST and catalase activities in human umbilical vein ECs. Either eNOS inhibition or superoxide radical (O2*-)/ONOO- scavenging differentially modulated the shear effects on enzyme activities suggesting that the intracellular redox status coordinates the shear-induced expression of cytoprotective genes.

Shear-induced reactive nitrogen species inhibit mitochondrial respiratory complex activities in cultured vascular endothelial cells.

There is evidence that nitric oxide (NO), superoxide (O(2)(*-)), and their associated reactive nitrogen species (RNS) produced by vascular endothelial cells (ECs) in response to hemodynamic forces play a role in cell signaling. NO is known to impair mitochondrial respiration. We sought to determine whether exposure of human umbilical vein ECs (HUVECs) to steady laminar shear stress and the resultant NO production modulate electron transport chain (ETC) enzymatic activities. The activities of respiratory complexes I, II/III, and IV were dependent on the presence of serum and growth factor supplement in the medium. EC exposure to steady laminar shear stress (10 dyn/cm(2)) resulted in a gradual inhibition of each of the complexes starting as early as 5 min from the flow onset and lasting up to 16 h. Ramp flow resulted in inhibition of the complexes similar to that of step flow. When ECs were sheared in the presence of the NO synthase inhibitor N(G)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME; 100 microM), the NO scavenger 2-(4-carboxyphenyl)-4,4,5,5-tetramethylimidazoline-1-oxyl-3-oxide (c-PTIO; 100 microM), or the peroxynitrite (ONOO(-)) scavenger uric acid (UA; 50 microM), the flow-inhibitory effect on mitochondrial complexes was attenuated. In particular, L-NAME and UA abolished the flow effect on complex IV. Increased tyrosine nitration was observed in the mitochondria of sheared ECs, and UA blocked the shear-induced nitrotyrosine staining. In summary, shear stress induces mitochondrial RNS formation that inhibits the electron flux of the ETC at multiple sites. This may be a critical mechanism by which shear stress modulates EC signaling and function.