Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance.

Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non-native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we take a meta-analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non-native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO(2) and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. By contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and CO(2) largely inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.

Linking thermal tolerances and biogeography: Mytilus edulis (L.) at its southern limit on the east coast of the United States.

Temperature is a major factor contributing to the latitudinal distribution of species. In the Northern Hemisphere, a species is likely to be living very close to its upper thermal tolerance limits at the southern limit of its biogeographic range. With global warming, this southern limit is expected to shift poleward. Moreover, intertidal ecosystems are expected to be especially strongly affected, mostly due to their large daily and seasonal variations in temperature and exposure. Hence, these are model systems in which to conduct experiments examining the ecological effects of climate change. In this study we determined the upper lethal thermal limits, for both air and water, of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis via laboratory experiments. Tolerances vary seasonally, with a difference between media of 0.7 degrees C in June and 4.8 degrees C in November, as well as a decrease with multiple exposures. Measured lethal limits were then compared to field measurements of environmental temperature and concurrent measurements of mortality rates. Field results indicate that mortality in the intertidal occurs at rates expected from laboratory responses to elevated temperature. Hindcasts, retrospective analyses of historical data, indicate that high rates of mortality have shifted 51 and 42 days earlier in Beaufort, North Carolina, and Oregon Inlet, North Carolina, respectively, between 1956 and 2007. The combined data suggest that the historical southern limit of M. edulis near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is indeed the result of intolerance to high temperature, and that this range edge is shifting poleward in a manner indicative of global warming.